Good News for Kerry in Rasmussen State Polls 9/26

[DarthDem]

I don't see louis c around yet, so here are the Rasmussen daily trackers today, and it's all good news for Kerry.

FL - - 49-48 Kerry, up from 49-48 the other way yesterday
MI - - 48-44 Kerry, down from 49-44 Kerry yesterday
MN - - 46-46, same as yesterday (sorry, I don't buy this one)
OH - - 45-49 in favor of *, from 45-48 yesterday
PA - - 48-45 Kerry, a huge shift and gain for Kerry from 47-46 for * yesterday


Good news in FL and especially PA.

[speedoo]

1. If Kerry wins FL and PA, he is our next president.

Thanks for the great news.

[senseandsensibility]

2. Good news!

Thanks!

[Quixote1818]

3. Gore had a bigger gap or was behind in these states.

The undecided voters will fall heavy to Kerry and all the NEWLY registered Democrats along with all the cell phone users who are not polled make me think Kerry is in great shape!

[deadparrot]

4. Every little bit helps. n/t

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

5. Had a spontanious talk today

after we did the Dances of Universal Peace. At least one person there is a Republican, but she doesn't plan to vote for Bush at all. The others not only won't vote Bush, but see him as very dangerous if not evil. The Republican said she's been talking to people who say they don't like Bush but feel they have to vote for him because "he's a Christian". I reminded her of "wolves in sheep's clothing" and that Christians are known by their good works (she corrected me with the phrase, "known by their fruits"). She says she will try and use these arguments to convince them...she's sad because they just watch the news and have no clue what is going on.

[fujiyama]

6. Kerry

needs to work a little harder in the upper midwest. He shouldn't lose WI, MN, and IA....though I'm not as worried about MN. The other two do worry me - partly because of their razor thin margins last time.

The PA numbers are encouraging. I also doubted that whatever bounce Bush got in the state would last. I think Kerry will ultimately win the state in the end.

FL is firmly a toss up. One day Bush has a lead, then it's tied, then Kerry leads, or the other way around. It seems to be hovering right there.

Kerry doesn't have much to worry about MI. He'll win it. OH and MI have almost trended opposite ways.

[LittleClarkie]

7. I don't see how Kerry can work harder in WI

He, or Edwards, or a vet, are here so often as it is. He's even hanging out here getting ready for the debate. We have beautiful country in Central Wisconsin.

I swear a couple weeks ago, he did an appearance in Wisconsin, then went to Ohio, and then boomeranged back to Wisconsin the very next day.

I say we are at least in a dead heat here in Wisconsin.

[fujiyama]

17. You're probably right...

about it being a dead heat.

WI and IA will be close in the end no matter what.

[DarthDem]

8. Fully Agree

Incidentally, a win in Florida means losses in WI *and* IA don't matter if Kerry wins all other Gore states. He gets 270, 274 with NH.

I live in PA and am not worried about it at all, nor about MN. The * campaign has already written off Michigan, and rightly so. Looks like FL could be the key again - - but I'm still thinking that these WI and IA polls are wrong, and Kerry could win with the Gore states plus NH and AR and get 270.

[simpsonsbuff]

9. arkansas

arkansas, anyone know how the situation on the ground is there? I know zogby had it very close, as did another poll. I also know that kerry pulled ads from there...... Rasmussen will be doing polling there, I emailed the head, and wouldn't u know it, he emailed me back! He said that an update on arkansas will be updated this week.

[DarthDem]

13. No Idea . . .

. . . of ground situation, but I sense that the state is very close. Kerry and Edwards shoudl really start paying more attention to it. Incidentally, that "ad pull" story was Rethug media spin - - the campaign made clear that it was a one-week pull, and that they would be back on the air in AR immediately.

[elperromagico]

35. I think it's going to be close either way,

within 2 points, I'd say. Education is a big deal here; a Supreme Court ruling on our school system demonstrated how bad our schools really are. And many blame Bush for the poor state of the schools due to his unfunded "No Child Left Behind" program.

But yeah, Arkansas will probably be a nailbiter.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Extremely interesting; those numbers hint the race is tied nationally

All 5 are virtually identical to the partisan makeup I attribute to each state, based on 2000 numbers and recent trends. That is a very positive sign, much more indicative of legit poll numbers than ones that obviously differ from state tendencies.

Florida is virtually a dead even state. Michigan tracks several points Democratic. Minnesota, especially with Nader, is only a point or so Democratic. Ohio is 3 to 4 points Republican. Pennsylvania is about 3 points Democratic. This is the first widespread sample that makes sense all at once, and excellent news for Kerry.

What is the Rasmussen national poll number? It must be close to tied. No way they can have Bush far ahead with those state percentages.

[simpsonsbuff]

12. national poll

one point for bush. Rasmussenreports.com

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Thanks again, that coincides with the state numbers

I'll have to start paying more attention to Rasmussen

[DarthDem]

18. 0.7 Actually n/t

[fujiyama]

29. Another interesting point

is that FOX News had Kerry up by three in PA.

It looks like after a brief period of a few weeks, the state is going back to Kerry again. I think the bounce is effectively over.

[nikatnyte]

11. I was in Minneapolis last week

I drove around a good deal of the city, and the pro-Kerry/anti-Bush bumper stickers and yard signs outnumbered the pro-Bush ones 5 to 1. Maybe most of the Bush support in MN is coming from the rural areas?

[faithnotgreed]

20. yes, that is the traditional breakdown in states

rural going more to bush and urban more to kerry of course. minnesota no different. it will be very interesting to see the breakdown of this election.
i kept the washington post paper that gave the % breakdown of gore v bush, incl by religion, income, etc

that will be highly interesting to see which way this one goes... its going to defy some tradition esp with both jewish and arab americans voting more in favor of kerry!

[Guaranteed]

14. Oh FUCK yeah...

We're getting the first results in the polls from Kerry's new offensive....

Who knows- maybe by Thursday it'll be BUSH looking to retake KERRY at the debates.

[tedoll78]

15. At this point..

I have Kerry winning:

- all of the Gore states except for WI (which will be the WV of 2004, leaving the traditionally blue column)
- New Hampshire
- Colorado - but the referendum will pass, giving Kerry only 5EVs.
- Florida, by about 2%

I'm still not sure about Ohio. The new voter registration stats are certainly encouraging though. Flip a coin.

In any Ohio outcome, Kerry wins.

[DarthDem]

19. So that's . . .

254 + 5 + Florida - - a win. Not an unrealistic scenario at all! We could lose IA too under your theory.

[tedoll78]

22. And the kicker..

Florida seems more and more likely. Zogby and Rasmussen have pretty consistently had Kerry in the lead there for the past week.

In 2000, Gore was behind in most pre-election swing state polls, and he still pulled-off victories in most of them! So if Kerry's tied in a swing state on November 1st's polls, I think he's going to do it.

[K. F. Gibbons]

21. new voters unaccounted for in polls.

I believe it will be a total blow out for Kerry. As the election nears, people will look more toward the economy as they are unable to make a judgment based on the war in Iraq.

I am an expert.
I am never wrong.
Your jealous of my keen mind.

[juajen]

27. Oops, spelling police here

My pet peeve: "your" for "you're", a contraction meaning "you are". No ticket, but I'm warnin' ya. LOL

[Name removed]

28. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[IowaGuy]

23. Fairly confident about Iowa....

The pollsters had it all wrong at the caucuses w/ Kerry - most pickin' him to finish 3rd or 4th - Edwards wasn't even in the picture...had a lot of new registrations, a lot of moderate Repubs are pretty wishy-washy on Bush - Absentee/early ballot voting organization is really strong for Dems - close to 100,000 in that alone, pretty close to 10% of the total vote expected. Zogby has always gotten Iowa a lot closer than the other pollsters - It isn't a lock, but everybody is working really hard and it is really looking encouraging. My guess is that Bush has a pretty solid 40-42% of solid repuke vote, the rest is either DEM or up for grabs...

[louis c]

24. Well, at least I know someone is backing me up

When you post ahead of me these numbers, please E-Mail me so I won't dupe.

Thanks, anyway, no matter how the good news gets out, let everyone know.

[DarthDem]

25. Sorry Dude

Figured you were taking the day off :)

[louis c]

26. Don't worry

We're all looking out for each other, here. No need to apologize.

Usually I'm watching the Pat's game on Sunday, but today is the bye week, so I put in some overtime at work.

You have my E-Mail, and I'll get it before I post. Usually it's between 5:30 and six pm.

I give a little analysis with my numbers, because I have a big mouth, but you have nothing to apologize for.

Aren't the numbers interesting, and don't you just have to get them at noon and five. Are we addicted or what.

You know, if I was addicted to drugs and alcohol instead of politics, I might have been President of the United States.

[rullery]

30. Florida should go to Kerry this election.

Here are a few things the pollsters may not have taken into consideration. Many of us retirees live and vote in Florida, but have summer homes up north. Therefore we are not presently available to be polled at our Florida residences. Personally I will be returning to Florida in October, and voting there in November.

I suspect that most of us are going to vote for Kerry. Many of us seniors are pissed off that the new Medicare legislation FORBIDS negotiating lower prices for our prescription drugs! Also we see Bush's idea of privatizing Social Security as a direct threat to these payments that many of us depend on.

There has been a rush of new voters being registered in Florida, and most are registering as democrats. Most pollsters fail to recognize that these are highly motivated new voters who do intend to vote.

Have you noticed that the hurricanes devastating our state have hit the more Republican areas? The highly populated southeast part of Florida, with many Democratic voters, has been largely spared. If there are lots of people who are focused on rebuilding their homes, who therefore do not vote this time, more of them are likely to be Republicans IMO. I do not wish anybody the misfortune of having to rebuild their homes, but I do think that this could be significant.

So I am pretty confident that Florida will vote for Kerry. Now we just have to make sure that Jeb Bush and Glenda Hood do not steal the election...

[DMX]

31. What about NM?

What about New Mexico? Does anyone know what is happening in NM?

[BillZBubb]

32. One of Bush*s own guys said they need a 5% poll lead in Ohio

to be certain of winning there. Kerry and Edwards need to keep up the pressure. Win Ohio, win the White House!

[WI_DEM]

33. What's this about Rasmussen having Kerry down only 1-pt in Georgia?

truthisall had that little tidbit earlier, but nothing listed on his site--yet.

[Awsi Dooger]

34. That was wrong; Rasmussen has it 53-42 in Georgia

There was a thread today in GD2004, something like "Kerry in Georgia?" Apparently the 1 point margin was incorrectly posted in a website some DU regulars rely on, but the correct 11 point gap was listed on Rasmussen's premium site itself. A couple of DUers who subscribe corrected it later.

[amandabeech]

36. I hope that Edwards pulls double shifts in the rural upper Midwest.

Remember how well he did in rural Iowa? He speaks the language, but with that accent that fells the ladies. Well, this lady at least.

On edit: I am being truly shallow today. Please forgive me.

[Hello_Kitty]

37. No worries

I was in the 4th row at his Tucson rally and just about swooned when he walked out. It's not shallowness, we just know quality when we encounter it!:toast: