What's the status on that Colorado legislation

[Guaranteed]

to split their EVs? Anybody know if this is going to get passed before the election?

[tedoll78]

1. It isn't legislation.

It's a voter-initiated referendum. A recent poll has it passing by double digits, last I checked.

There may be a Constitutional issue though. Article 2 of the US Constitution requires that state's legislature to determine how electors are designated. If the referendum passes, it will have been put on the ballot and passed by the people.. not by the state legislature.

It should be interesting. I hope Kerry doesn't end-up relying on a court case here to win, because the US Supreme Court is stacked against him..

[Guaranteed]

2. Oh, alright, I messed up.

Here's the deal- this thing in Colorado is a retroactive INITIATIVE. The voters will VOTE on this in the GE, at the very same time that they're voting for Kerry or Bush. And THEN, if it passes, Kerry will take half or nearly half of Bush's EVs.

So, yeah, we want this thing to pass.

Here's a good article on it:

http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1413,36~75~2422386,00.html

You know, it's funny- this is really the Dems beating the GOP at their own "playing the public for fools" game. The GOP concern, that this will make the state a "fly-over" state because it's no longer winner take all, and the EVs will hardly change, is actually very valid. The PROBLEM is that THAT is WAY too complicated of a concept for your typical voter to understand. So, good luck with that, Repukes!

[stubertmcfly]

3. actually...

...after attending the moveon meeting today and discussing this with other people there, i am not sure it is such a great idea. colorado could actually go for either way this year and will certainly be so close that the winner will only take 5 votes instead of the standard 9 the loser would get the other 4 (assuming nader doesn't get enough to warrant giving one to his camp). the lasting effect is that essentially, colorado's vote would be null-and-void instead of actually making a difference (one way or the other). i think that it would be better to give all our electoral votes to one candidate or the other vs. splitting them.

[Guaranteed]

4. Mmmm nuh uh...

I'll take the guaranteed four EVs, thank you very much. That's an immediate, for sure +4 for Kerry.

Look at this: I was looking over electoral-vote.com, and while not really paying attention to the states that Bush is supposedly "leading" in, I counted up which ones I was pretty sure we'd win:

For sure Kerry has 207. Then add Oregon, Maryland, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and 2 EVs from Maine, and you've got 240. That means we basically have to win Florida (if not, we're counting on winning Iowa, NM, Arkansas and Nevada, plus some other state), which would bring us up to 267. Plus four from Colorado, and we win.

[tedoll78]

5. I don't want it to pass either.

Imagine this scenario:

Kerry loses the overall vote in Colorado. But the initiative passes, so he still gains 4EVs - which puts him over the finish line with 273EVs.

Bush decides to sue, claiming that the Colorado ballot initiative is unConstitutional. The lawsuit goes up the system, and ends-up before the US Supreme Court. We all know the verdict there.. the initiative is found unConstitutional, Bush is awarded the other 4EVs from Colorado, and he narrowly wins the election.

===================

Or another scenario:

Kerry wins Colorado, and the initiative passes. Thus, Kerry gets 5EVs, and the Chimp gets the other 4EVs. Kerry's EV total ends-up as 267EVs, and Kerry decides to sue for the other 5EVs, claming that the ballot initiative is unConstitutional. The case makes its way to the US Supreme Court, where the court rules (5-4, as usual) that the initiative is indeed Constitutional. Bush keeps the 4EVs from Colorado - and wins the election narrowly.

===================

One things to note: it doesn't really matter which argument Kerry and Bush use in the court cases in the above scenarios. The bottom line is this: if it goes to court, Kerry is screwed. Bush's lawyer could tell Antonin Scalia, "we find this law Constitutional/unConstitutional because it's wonderful/poopy" - and Scalia (and the other 4) would find it perfectly valid.

I'd hope that it fails. Kerry's been in the margin of error for the past month in Colorado. Salazar looks like he might have reverse coattails. Colorado new voter registration is absolutely NUTS right now. And most pollsters in 2000 underestimated Gore's percentages. I think Kerry has a very nice shot at all 9EVs. A bonus? If Kerry can pin-down the Gore states, New Hampshire, and Colorado.. he doesn't need anything else.

[stubertmcfly]

6. i agree...

...plus have a very strong feeling that the polls are underestimating kerry support due to missing cell-only data.

[wuushew]

7. I disagree

The total number of winning combinations is greater if the votes are split. There are more ways to win with 26X + 4 or 5 EV than hoping that Kerry manages to bag all 9. Should we not maximize our chances of success?

My Prediction for 2004 election Gore + NH = 264 votes
unknown swing states

NV
FL
OH
CO

1 LOSS, 1 TIE, 13 WIN

264 + N/A (loss)
264 + NV (tie)
264 + NV + FL (win)
264 + NV + FL + OH (win)
264 + NV + FL + OH + CO (win)
264 + NV + OH (win)
264 + NV + OH + CO (win)
264 + NV + CO (win)
264 + FL (win)
264 + FL + OH (win)
264 + FL + OH + CO (win)
264 + FL + CO (win)
264 + OH (win)
264 + OH + CO (win)
264 + CO (win)


2 LOSS, 2 TIE, 18 WIN

264 + N/A (loss)
264 + NV (tie)
264 + NV + FL (win)
264 + NV + FL + OH (win)
264 + NV + FL + OH + 4(win)
264 + NV + FL + OH + 5(win)
264 + NV + OH (win)
264 + NV + OH + 4 (win)
264 + NV + OH (win)
264 + NV + OH + 5 (win)
264 + NV + 4 (win)
264 + NV + 5 (win)
264 + FL (win)
264 + FL + OH (win)
264 + FL + OH + 4 (win)
264 + FL + OH + 5 (win)
264 + FL + 4 (win)
264 + FL + 5 (win)
264 + OH + 4 (win)
264 + OH + 5 (win)
264 + 4 (loss)
264 + 5 (tie)









Also splitting the vote increases the chances of a tie. Another election debacle would raise public interest in election reform which is sorely needed at this time.

[YellowDawgDemocrat]

8. I don't know where I stand on this

I think Colorado is trending toward us and could be very similar to New Mexico in the near future. The Hispanic population is increasing rapidly and lord knows we could use another Western State in our camp.

If a split puts us over the top this election then it is worth it. However, if splitting the electors doesn't do us any good this election then I think we gave away 4 electors for nothing.