Will there be Exit Polls on Nov. 2, 2004?

[Eric J in MN]

If so, by whom?

[Nancy Waterman]

1. Good question

And if so, and if they are vastly different than the computer voting machines, what do we do?

[cheshire]

2. Yes of course, by both sides and then they will confuse you again.

[creeksneakers2]

3. I don't know what they'll do about

all the absentee ballots. I won't even trust the winner announcement until the next day if its close.

[napi21]

4. Absentee ballots are counted at different times in different states.

Some have rules that they are not counted at all unless the voting is close enough that they would make a difference. Some are counted before election day (I think Ga. does this) and the data is loaded into the voting system on election day.

I think Oregon is all absentee ballots isn't it?

[napi21]

5. I'm sure there will be exit polls. Media couldn't live without them.

I suspect the final decision of the exit polls will be "TOO CLOSE TO CALL"!

I feel reasonably sure nobody is going to stick their neck out this time, either in exit polls or in projections.

[bobbieinok]

6. the national group that did exit polls was right on every state EXCEPT FL

in 2000.

It had Gore win significantly; it included those who voted for Gore yet screwy ballot had them vote for Buchanan.

This is a major indicator that the 'final tally' was wrong.

In 2002 there was no national exit poll; announced just before election that there were 'problems in the system.'

So there were no exit polls, eg in GA, to help make the 'result' suspect.

I think there's no national exit poll for this Nov. It's definitely to the advantage of 'anyone who wants to manipulate the results' not to have a recognized exit poll in place.

IMO, the bushco want no 'outside view' to contest whatever they have planned.

[Demoiselle]

9. But the exit polls were CORRECT on FLorida in 2000!

When the newspaper consortium finally got around to a proper recount, they found that Gore had won...if narrowly...in every scenario in Florida. And in that recount they didn't even take the Palm Beach ballot and other "spoiled" ballots into account. I hope we have some legitimate exit pollsters out there this time.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

10. Correct. The exit polls were correct. Gore won by A LOT.

And I hope there are exit polls out the wazoo this year.

[Mz Pip]

7. Probably

and if anybody has them, Drudge will. Don't know about how accurate they will be, though.

MzPip
:dem:

[Zan_of_Texas]

8. There is almost no press on the exit polling group.

Before, it was Voter News Service, which I had never even heard of when it fizzled on election day in 2002.

Last I heard, Mitofsky was vying to do it this time. Maybe somebody has more recent info.

Voter News Service was EXTREMELY murky, lots of unanswered questions about what really happened in 2002.

I don't ordinarily cite Fox, but as I said, info on the ongoing exit polling story is hard to find.

Voter News Service Disbands After Two Electoral Disasters
http://foxnews.com/story/0,2933,75361,00.html

Monday, January 13, 2003

NEW YORK -Six major news organizations announced Monday the breakup of Voter News Service, the consortium they had built to count votes and conduct surveys on Election Day. The decision follows two major election-night failures in a row by VNS.

Given the expense of mounting such operations on their own, ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News Channel and The Associated Press said they were considering other options for sharing vote counts and exit poll surveys. But it will no longer be VNS, an operation that was created in 1993. <SNIP>

Following that (2000) embarassment, VNS contracted with Battelle Memorial Institute, an Ohio-based research company, to rebuild its system. But in the 2002 election, VNS was unable to provide its members and other clients with results from exit poll surveys. This material is used to help make projections of winners and to supplement the vote count with an analysis of why people voted as they did.

<snip>
The networks are considering asking the AP to provide an upgraded vote count to replace the VNS tabulation, the network source said. AP has long conducted a state-based tabulation separate from VNS. Relying in part on its own numbers, AP was the only consortium member not to declare Bush the winner in Florida early in the morning after the 2000 election. <snip> Consortium members are thinking about two alternatives for building a new exit poll operation. One proposal is from Warren Mitofsky and Joseph Lenski, two veteran polling experts. Mitofsky built one of the predecessors to VNS and helped establish a limited exit poll operation for CNN last year. <snip> A CBS executive is helping pull together a second proposal to give the members another option.

<snip>

[Eric J in MN]

11. kick

kick