9/27 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 300 EV, 91% WIN PROB, 50.85% POP. VOTE

[TruthIsAll]

Trust the Independents, toss the Whores.

Do you believe this?
The Independent 8 poll group averages to a 92.4% win prob for Kerry.
The Full 18 poll group (indies+corporates) is just the opposite: 92.4% for Bush.

The State Monte Carlo Simulation Model has a 91% win prob for Kerry.
More proof of bias on the part of the corporate media.


http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[AndyTiedye]

1. The Corporate Polls Are Factoring in the Planned Electoral Fraud

They are complicit.

When people are suspicous of election results, they look at the polls.
If the polls match the results, it's hard to make a case for fraud
unless the results are very close.

They WILL steal millions of votes this election, and Gallup will
help them do it. All Kerry's lawyers and all our poll-watchers
can do nothing to prevent the sort of theft they are planning.

We should assume that we really are behind as much as Gallup says
we are, because we will have find enough Democratic voters to
overcome the fraud.

Edit:

I see you have dropped your allocation of undecideds to Kerry to
60%. While a bit more realistic than 75%, it is still better than
we are likely to get. At best we'll get half of the undecided voters
who actually vote. Probably more than half of them won't vote.

What is our win probabilty if 60% of the undecided voters don't vote,
and those who do vote split 50-50?

What does it do to our chances if we assume that Florida will be
awarded to Boosh as it was in 2000, regardless of the popular vote
goes there?

[TruthIsAll]

2. I have had a 60% base case assumption for over a month now.

It was 70% when I first started. I still think 70% is the best number, but I lowered my base case to 60% to be conservative.

Andy, you are WRONG about the undecided 50% maximum to Kerry.

Why don't you trust the historical data?

As I said yesterday, it just makes sense that most of the undecided don't care for Bush and are waiting for Kerry to close the sale. Otherwise they would NOT be undecidied, by definition They have seen Bush for four years - and they do not like what they have seen.

By your logic, this election will defy all historic precedent and Bush will get at least 50% of the undecided vote. Only in Cyberspace.

Remember, Bush is the most hated president in our lifetime, perhaps in history.

[AndyTiedye]

3. We Have No Way to Reach the Undecided Voters

> Andy, you are WRONG about the undecided 50% maximum to Kerry.

Of course I hope he does better than that.

> Why don't you trust the historical data?

Because none of the old rules seem to apply anymore. Never before
has the administration had all of the media shilling for it the way
they do today. Never has an administration had the churches stumping
for it the way they do for Boosh.

Kerry will not win over many undecided voters because he cannot
REACH most of the undecided voters. Nothing he can say in a 30-second
spot will connect with them, especially when that spot is a tiny
island in a sea of pro-Boosh propaganda on the airwaves. The debates
will be too tightly scripted to allow Kerry any room to show himself.
Where does that leave us?

Your figures also seem to be assuming that all of the undecided
voters will actually vote. Given historical turnout levels, that
is highly unlikely. If I have missed your undecided turnout
percentage figures, please excuse me. With historic turnout levels
hovering around half for ALL voters, it seems likely that undecided
voters would turn out in even lower numbers than that.

> As I said yesterday, it just makes sense that most of the undecided
> don't care for Bush and are waiting for Kerry to close the sale.

Kerry will never get a good chance to do that. That is the problem!

> By your logic, this election will defy all historic precedent and
> Bush will get at least 50% of the undecided vote.

Given that they most likely have an "October Surprise" ready to go,
we should be prepared for the undecided vote to break for Boosh.
The question is how many of the undecided voters will actually vote.
Historic turnout hovers around half, and one would expect turnout
among undecided voters to be lower than committed voters. Repub
efforts to reduce turnout such as roadblocks and "terra alerts"
(real or fake) would probably keep a lot of undecided or barely-decided voters away from the polls.

> Only in Cyberspace.

I hope you are right.

> Remember, Bush is the most hated president in our lifetime, perhaps
> in history.

True, but those who hate Bush are NOT undecided!

My take on it is that we won't get most of the undecided voters,
but most of them won't vote anyway. Our efforts would be better
spent elsewhere.