Trust the Indies.Toss the Whores: The Pro's vs. The Ho's

[TruthIsAll]

So Gallup has a new poll out today. WTF cares?

Let's analyze the disparity between the corporate and independent pollsters.

On the state level, here is a comparison of results from the model:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x904972

The latest model results:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

On the national level, to distinguish between National pollsters, I have created a separate group of 8 Independent pollsters, who are included with the corporate media pollsterss in the National 18 group.

Is it just a coincidence that the Independent Group of 8 has the race tied at 46.0, whereas the full 18 Group has Bush leading by 2%? Ergo, the Corporate Media pollsters have Bush leading by an average of 4%.

The impact on the probability of a Kerry win (defined as the probability of winning a majority of the popular vote) based on these two National polling groups is very interesting.

In an unbelievable coincidence, they are exactly reversed as of today.

For the Independent group of 8: Kerry has a 92.38% win probability.
For the full group of 18: Bush has a 92.38% win probability.

The State model, based on a Monte Carlo Simulation, gives Kerry a 91% win probability. So the State model confirms the Independent 8 National model!

State Model:
Kerry current poll weighted average is 46.49%, projected to 50.85% with a win probability of 91.0%.

National 8 model:
Kerry current poll average is 46%, projected to 50.80%, with a win probability of 92.38%.

This is a key point. Both models use totally different methods to compute probabilities and derive Kerry's national popular forecast.

The National model applies a tight MOE of 1.10% for the 8 polls (8,000 respondents) to Kerry's projected % to derive his probability.

For the full 18 poll group (equivalent to 18,000 respondents), the MOE is 0.73%

The State model uses the results of 5000 simulations based on the latest weighted state polls (mostly from Zogby and ARG) to calculate the probability of a Kerry win, which is just the percentage of Kerry trial wins in the 5000 trials.

The race is tied IF one looks at the CURRENT national 8 average poll and the weighted state polls.

But it's NOT really tied, since Kerry will get the bulk of the remaining UNDECIDED and OTHER 3rd party voters. And we are not including the effects of the unknowable, potentially massive democratic turnout.

Kerry is on the verge of closing the deal.

Trust the Indies. Toss the Whores.

TruthIsAll