Narrow Bush Gain in Rasmussen Battleground for 9/27

[louis c]

Rasmussen 3 day national tracking poll has Bush leading Kerry with 47.8% to 46.1%, a full point pick up from yesterday. "Other" receives 2.2%, and 3.9% are "not sure". This tracking is consistent with a fluctuation of between a Bush lead of between 1 and 2 points for more than 5 days.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

The battleground results have moved slightly in Bush's favor today, but did not erase all of Kerry's gains in the last couple of days.

Florida, Bush 49%-48% (This is a 2 point Bush gain from yesterday and marks the fifth time in eight days that the lead has changed hands).

Minnesota, Bush 46%-45% (This is a 1 point gain by Bush and breaks a three day tie).

Michigan, Kerry 47%-45% (This is a 2 point Bush gain from yesterday, and is the closest Bush has been in more than a week).

Ohio, Bush 48%-46% (This is a Kerry 2 point gain from yesterday, and marks the closest Kerry has been in more than a week).

Pennsylvania, Kerry 48%-46% (This is a 1 point Bush gain from yesterday, but Kerry holds the lead he gained yesterday after being behind by 5 points just ten days ago).

[Melodybe]

1. Ohio and Florida are ours, suck it Bush we win

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2418611

[louis c]

7. kick

[sonicx]

2. but but...gallup says double digits!!

:P

[louis c]

5. Gallup is full of shit.

their method is out dated.

You can no longer poll by only land lined phones using less than 1,000 voters.

Rasmussen is tracking, and is interviewing 30,000 voters a month. even though they use land lines, at least the volume makes up the difference.

Zogby was the most accurate in 2000, and Rasmussen's numbers are in line with Zogby.

Rasmussen missed the 2000 election because they failed to "weight" their polling data. They have since corrected that method, but Gallup has not.

I read Rasmussen and Zogby, and when they agree, I feel that I have accurate data. Both have this election less than 2 points, either way, and the Electoral College a toss-up, and I believe them.

[Snivi Yllom]

3. ummmm

the poll shows Bush up in OH and FL

?

[Melodybe]

4. Exactly the polls don't count the new registrations

and minorities, and poor people, and democrats for that matter, so why do we give a shit what the lying polls say?

[louis c]

6. This is the best data we could have

If Democrats feel that this election depends on every vote, as 1 and 2 point margins indicate, we will work all the harder, and not be discouraged.

At least it proves the 11 point bull shit is just that, bull shit.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Rasmussen Can Make All Those Calls Cuz He Uses Bots...

I am suspicious of anyone who tells a machine who he's voting for...

[dennis4868]

8. It drives me crazy that it is this close....

if the voters were informed this would not be a close election....and maybe Bush would have already been impeached for his crimes, fraud, and corruption!

[louis c]

9. kick

[Snivi Yllom]

10. 9/28 update 52.9* 46.7 Kerry

* treading water in head to head and gaining in JA.

[ItsMyParty]

11. Ummm--isn't that a hell of a jump and real forward motion for Bush???

If that stat is true then the neck and neck race just blew open for Bush. Could you explain the 'treading water' comment because this looks more like Kerry drowning and Bush floating comfortably on top of the water?????????????

[Snivi Yllom]

16. 9-29-04 * 49.1 Kerry 45.3 *JA 53.6%

no, but today shows another bump up, * JA is the highest yet at Rasmussen.

Kerry needs to make a bold move during the debates IMO.

[Awsi Dooger]

13. That makes no sense because "other" and "not sure" have evaporated

That's 99.6% commited to either Kerry or Bush, completely bizarre by Rasmussen or any other standard.

Yesterday Kerry and Bush received 93.9% combined and today 99.6%? I would love to wager otherwise.

[CityDem]

15. Bush* over 50% is bad news

If this is accurate, we have a problem. When * was under 50%, you could count on the undecided going for JFK. If * is a couple points over 50%, the game is over. This is depressing.

[goodhue]

12. kick