How Gallup selects a likely voter

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

This is from the web site Donkey Rising. Gallup asks the following questions.

1. SALIENCE: How much thought have you given to the upcoming election for president?— quite a lot, or only a little? (“Quite a lot” or “Some” as a volunteered response score one point)

2. KNOWLEDGE: Do you happen to know where people who live in your neighborhood go to vote? (“Yes” scores one point)

3. BEHAVIOR: Have you ever voted in your precinct or election district? (“Yes” scores one point)

4. BEHAVIOR: How often would you say you vote—always, nearly always, part of the time, or seldom? (“Always” or “Nearly always” scores one point}

5. INTENTION: Do you, yourself, plan to vote in the presidential election on November (*), or not? (“Yes” scores one point)

6. BEHAVIOR: In the presidential election, did you vote for (*) or (*), or did things come up to keep you from voting?

7. INTENTION: I’d like you to rate your chances of voting in the upcoming election for president on a scale of 1 to 10. If “1” represents someone who definitely will not vote, and “10” represents someone who definitely will vote, where on this scale of 1 to 10 would you place yourself?

If a voter answers each of these questions the “right” way, they get a 7, miss one and you get a 6, and so on. In practice that typically means all of the 7s—given full weight—plus some proportion of those with lower scores (usually the 6s), who are weighted down so that the size of the likely voter sample matches the projected turnout for the year (apparently 55 percent this year). All other voters are discarded from the sample.

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000725.php

[Nimrod]

1. Proof that

The huge upswing in registered voters is not even vaguely reflected in these polls.

[tritsofme]

2. This is an explanation of how likely voters are determined

by Gallup, not registered voters.

[tritsofme]

3. It seems like a pretty solid method to me.

The people that fall within the top 55% of the sample are considered "likely voters"

But if you believe the likely voter method is flawed, then you can go look at the registered voter and national adult results.

[Teaser]

4. The results have shown it to be flawed.

Gallup ain't really been close to right since 1984.

[tritsofme]

5. LV model has only been in use since 1996 IIRC

And they were within MoE in 1988, 1996, and 2000; in 1992 they way overstated Clinton and understated Perot however.

[0rganism]

6. I'd like to see a comparison with how Zogby does it

Zogby and Harris were the two polling firms that got 2000 right. It'd be fairly interesting to compare the methodology.