What do you think a REAL poll would tell us?

[Clinton Crusader]

If there was an honest to god real accurate poll out there, what do you think it would say??
:kick:

[demosincebirth]

1. 50-45 Kerry

[AuntPatsy]

2. 68% Kerry - 29 % Bush - 3 % Nader

[Spiffarino]

8. In my neighborhood...

Here's the breakdown on my street:

• John Kerry.......... 90%
  
• Yellow Dog........... 5%
  
• Ham Sandwich
  hold the mayo............ 3%
  
• Moldy Dog Poop....... 1.99999999999999999999999999999999999985%
  
• * ......................... .00000000000000000000000000000000000015%
  

[NVMojo]

3. I feel like I am watching a media marketing campaign

when I see these polls everywhere in the press and on TV, touting Bush with no one asking "WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON?" What the hell do we expect from idiots who agree that Bush is best to deal with the war in Iraq when he lied to start it and has fecked it up ROYALLY!! Sure, let him fix his damn mess!!

[Joe Turner]

16. All I can say is

I live in a heavily republican area and I rarely see any signs for Bush*. Bush's BIG surprise is going to come on election day itself when a good part of his (former) base simply decides not show up for him. I know many republicans and most have had it with him and his reckless ways. This is going to be one heck of an interesting election. IMO, it is just getting started.

BTW, as many of you already know, Freepers are already popping the campaign cork in early celebration of Smirk's victory. They are so confident that Smirk is going to win it has all the makings of a Shocking Reversal of Fortune. I love over-confidence in an opponent (especially with 5 weeks to go) and I'm sure this is not lost on John Kerry. My prediction is that John is going to smoke Shrubya's butt in the debate. And the idiot will never see it coming. This will be the turn.

[dennis4868]

4. Apparently...

the ABC/Wash. Post poll intreviewed more dems than Repubs and Bush still had a 6-7 point lead....not good :-(

[Still_Notafraid]

11. ABC/wash poll = conservative dont buy it.

Just like when Clinton was running against Dole all the media had Clinton at about 34%,we all know what happened! I say the real poll is 65%-Kerry 34%-Bush 1%-Nader.There are going to be less people voting for Nader. Nader voter's don't want to take the same chance.

[dennis4868]

12. I agree with you....

that for the most part many of these polls cannot be trusted but this poll actually interviewed more dems than repubs (at least that is what they say) and still Bush is ahead :-(

Also, I dont remember a poll in 1996 where Clinton only had 36% or was behind....seems like Clinton was always ahead in the polls in 1996....but I could be wrong.

[GingerSnaps]

5. 28% Bush/ 71% Kerry/ 1% Nader

[cheshire]

6. 60% Kerry 34% turd, 6% the rest to all the others.

[Spiffarino]

7. Kerry-Edwards +0.2

...if you normalize preferences by the way people usually vote in Presidential elections.

[whistle]

9. 54% Kerry/Edwards, 42% Bush/Cheney, 3% Nader and 1%....

...all others. And that will be the case right up to November 1st.

[blackcat77]

10. Criminy...

If this is just about who can make the most wildly exaggerated claims for Kerry, maybe I'm in the wrong place.

Personally, and honestly, I think that right now Bush is ahead by 2 or 3 nationally and currently has about 290 electoral votes.

But I think when all is said and done, once again the race will end up in a dead heat with one candidate or the other winning by less than one percent and that Kerry will win the electoral college with between 280 and 290 votes. He will do so by winning Florida which the whore press will immediately call a huge upset and question the results. Much more so than they did in 2000...

[BillZBubb]

13. Bush* 48%, Kerry 45%.

Kerry is within striking distance, but still hasn't made the sale.

[goclark]

14. That Kerry is ahead by 6 pts.

The new voter registration is way, way up and they are not even considering that point.

I see the problem being that the polls will be closed before everyone ,in some neighborhoods, can vote.

AND, those damn THUGS trying to steal this election.

[Senior citizen]

15. Kerry 80%, Chimp 17%, all other & undecided 3%

I just wrote to a local TV station because they aired the results of the Gallup poll. I explained to them that Gallop makes the incorrect assumption that there are more puke than Dem voters, so they are careful to poll more pukes than Dems, which gives them fictitious results based on a false assumption. I pointed out that we're in California, which Gore carried handily in 2000, so the Gallup assumption certainly isn't true here.

Don't assume that everyone who has to act like a puke to avoid losing their job, will vote that way. Revenge is powerful.

Kerry has the Dem vote, the progressive vote, the fiscal conservative vote, the pro-choice vote (I think the dangers of the chimp making any more SCOTUS appointments are clear), the GLBT vote, most minority votes, the votes of those who are opposed to exporting US jobs, and the vote of everyone who has figured out that they've been lied to with regard to Iraq.

The chimp gets the Christian fundamentalist vote. Every other vote that has been traditionally puke, is now split because of stock market losses, pension plan losses, health care cost increases, the federal deficit, America's loss of allies and world respect, and many other policies that have alienated his base, not to mention all his strange statements, like not being concerned about Ben Ladin, or OB-GYNS being free to love their patients.

[Was_Immer]

17. No matter how I see it, I think Kerry needs to catch up

I dont think we should sugar coat it, I think Kerry is trailing. Maybe 2-3 points, but if you look at that swift boat garbage, it did its trick. Anyway you look at it, he should be up by alot when running against an incumbent with this record.

The race relies on these debates. There is still time, and look at last week when Kerry came out swinging, more of that. There is still time, but honestly I think polls are showing that he is behind among rv, not counting new voters, he has to, MUST, be tied in these polls. If you're tied, you win.

[Joe Turner]

18. I'll never understand why party affiliation is an assumption in polls

I've thought about this for awhile. If some polling company out there wants to get the most accurate snapshot of how the candidates are fairing at any given time they need to keep their methodology simple and poll an ample population base. The most accurate way of predicting an election is to poll at least 30k with state population densities in mind (including cell phones) and simply ask the respondent if they are planning to vote and if so for whom? If they aren't sure then don't ask any more questions, that is "undecided" for the time being. Boom. No leading questions.

The regular polls with samples well below 5k are not conducted this way. Often the questions are leading and the methodology is driven for a certain "result". This is why I have little confidence that any of the tracking polls are an accurate assessment of the election.

[theoceansnerves]

19. 50% kerry, 45% bush, 3% nader, 2% other

i'm giving bush a 30% base plus 15% scared into submission sheep.

[yellowdawgdem]

20. 60/40 for Kerry /nt

[baldguy]

21. 55-45 Kerry

EV 413-125 Kerry