The recent polls showing a large Bush lead seem to be designed to either discourage Democratic voters and/or condition the American public for a Bush victory based on vote rigging. The methodology that seems to be in use by Gallup and most other polling firms connected to large corporations are greatly over weighted to give Republicans excessive representation and do not give sufficient weight to Democratic voters based on historical voting trend. Polls by independent polling organizations that are using properly weighted samples (like Zogby, Pew Research, Harris and others) are not showing a significant Bush lead and some have Kerry ahead!
While most political analysts predict the largest Democratic voter turn-out in history, Gallup is predicting in their methodology that Republicans will be 7-8% more of the total electorate than Democrats actually voting on election day. Based on the most recent elections, Democrats have usually been 7-8% more of the total electorate when the actual votes were counted. The swing in numbers using Gallup’s distorted methodology would tend to give Bush a “fake” lead in the neighborhood of 15%.
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/WO0409/S00307.htmAs voters, we need to ask ourselves “why Gallup would use a methodology that would almost definitely mean that their election predictions would be wrong?” These writers are somewhat baffled in answering that question. Why would Gallup want to give the false impression of a Bush lead?
It is interesting to note that James Clifton who bought the Gallup organization is a big Republican donor.