How will a mass exodus out of Florida affect the presidential election?

[feistydem]

MSNBC reported tonight that 31% of Floridians polled said they are gettin' the hell out of Dodge. Many people have had enough hurricanes for one lifetime and they claim they are moving out of the state as soon as possible and waiting for their insurance checks elsewhere.

Can't say I blame them.

If that many people leave before the Nov. election, how do you think it will affect Florida's election?

With such a mess of mailing addresses belonging to destroyed homes, where will absentee and mail-in ballots go if they haven't gone out already?

Presumabaly the spillover into other states wouldn't have an effect on those states' elections because of new voter registration rules.

I think this will have an impact on Florida's vote... but the question is which candidate will it hurt/benefit?

[Elwood P Dowd]

1. The poor Democrats can't afford to leave

More votes for us.

[aquart]

2. It means fewer people get to decide.

The electoral votes won't change till the next census. This might make a very cosy situation for the poor bastards who stay behind because they have nowhere else to go.

[Syrinx]

3. I think it said...

That 31% have considered the possiblity of moving.

I'm not sure how it would affect the vote. People living in mobile homes and other less than majestic dwellings are the most endangered. But they are also least likely to have the means to relocate.

[2Design]

4. Rich have insurance and are rethugs mostly - poor are all the old

people in mobile homes that can't afford to get a new one and replace things - they will move in with someone somewhere else - these are dems

not sure how it will play out - lots of people without an address at this time and no insurance because insurance companies raised prices so high people didn't get it

insurance on mobile homes I read was 2000 a year - that is a lot

insurance companies are in the business of making a profit - not insuring people - so with high deductibles and high rates many went without or will go without now.

[Journeyman]

5. I think you'd do well to determine how many were polled. . .

and who was polled.

Kind of easy to get 31% of the people standing around their smashed homes to say they're going to leave, but quite another to get those who had no damage to say they will leave.

And just because someone says in the aftermath of a storm that they're bugging out doesn't mean they'll actually leave once they've talked to their insurance agents, taken a good loor around, and fully assessed their situation.

[secular_warrior]

6. the bigger question is the long term effect

Florida's population has been rapidly expanding over the past decade and the demographic trend line is going in our direction. By 2008 Florida should be safe Dem territory -- it is the next California. But I'm not sure how these hurricanes will affect that trend line. My guess is it will have some effect in the short run, but not in the long run.

If people leave the state, most likely the more rural 'live off the land' conservative type voters will stay behind and the state will trend back Republican. If the transplanted northerners and seniors stay in the state, it will go Democratic.

For this election, I'm not sure what effect the hurricanes will have. It's scary to think our president may yet again be decided by a fluke event in the Florida.

[sr_pacifica]

7. It's too late now, but later...

a dramatic enough population loss will result in fewer electoral votes. Whether that is good or bad for Democrats depends who leaves and where they leave to. Their exodus could result in a gain of electoral votes somewhere else. And that somewhere else could be a strong Republican state in which case, no gain for Demos unless, as posted above, the lower income, presumably Democrats, stay behind giving Florida over to the Democrats.

[PermanentRevolution]

8. Well, as a Floridian...

Miami-Dade and Broward are two of the big Democratic-leaning counties, and we haven't gotten hit by anything serious this year. St. Lucie and Palm Beach got some heavy damage from Frances and Jeanne, but Ivan and Charley both came ashore in heavily Republican areas.

I hate to think about this in terms of political gain. My grandmother lives in Sebastian, where Jeanne just came ashore, and I still haven't heard if she's ok. Whatever gains we may get from this, a lot of people had their lives destroyed by it.

I don't mean to preach, and I don't want to accuse anyone of insensitivity, but it's easier to watch this from other states than it is to go through it.

On edit: Sorry if anyone takes this post as an attack. I'm just worried about my grandmother.

[rullery]

9. I agree; heavily Democratic areas suffered little damage.

The disruption caused by hurricanes in the Punta Gorda area, and in the Panhandle, as well as central Florida, affected more Republicans than Democrats. However many mobile home dwellers in these areas are likely Democrats. While I certainly do not exult in others misfortunes, my guess is that more Republicans than Democrats will not be voting in November due to the storms.

We are among the lucky retired Floridians who have summer homes up north, so we did not have to go through the hurricanes. Pollsters have not been able to contact those of us who are up north. We are returning to Fort Myers, Florida in two weeks though, and expect to find our sturdy condo to be all right; but don't know for sure yet if we will have electric power.

While the many hurricanes this season may cause some folks to leave Florida, and discourage others from retiring to our state, in the long run I expect Florida's population will continue to grow, or at least maintain its current level. As for the election, I do expect Florida will go to Kerry this time.