UPLIFTING analysis-- Kerry will trounce Bush in debate!

[latebloomer]

The following email was forwarded to me by a friend-- the original writer is named Wayne T.

From his keyboard to the Goddess' ears!!

It's working out EXACTLY as I told you it would,
and it's a BEAUTIFUL thing to watch unfolding.  
Trust me, the brilliance and elegance of this campaign
will be studied for many many years to come.

Kerry *chose* to be dark in August, for a couple of reasons.

1. Save some of the $75 million in fed funds for LATE ads (which will be
more effective).

2. Lower expectations; let people think he meanders, that he can't be clear,
etc., so that when he DOES deliver smart and concise answers they will be
pleasantly *surprised* at his capability.


3. LET Bush (yes, I said *LET* Bush) get a slight lead.  This way, Kerry can
go on the attack without it seeming inappropriate or "mean", which it would
if he were in the lead.  Kerry needs a "license" (i.e. public expectations)
to attack this incumbent president before he can get away with it, or else
he would just seem nasty and unpatriotic and it would backfire.  When the
public is ASKING for him to get tough (which he is TOTALLY capable of doing,
as you've seen recently), wondering aloud why he HASN'T been forceful
enough, he not only has "permission" to do it, but he is surpassing the
INTENTIONALLY lowered expectations of the people who DIDN'T think he could.
Look, he needs to win this election on OFFENSE, criticizing Bush on all of
his many failures.  By setting the expectations of himself so low, he can
win the debate much more easily.  On Thursday, Bush isn't going to know what
hit him and the American people - FORTY-FOUR MILLION are expected to watch -
are going to see the Kerry that I've seen so many times on C-SPAN, CNN,
MSNBC, etc.  THAT Kerry is an amazing, strong, straightforward LEADER with
strength AND brilliance.  Bush will be left in a smoking crater, and Kerry
will pop TEN points in the polls.

4. His powder is as dry as a silica pack.  He has HUNDREDS of points on
which he can AND WILL effectively attack Bush.  He started these attacks
months ago, during the primary, and they were VERY effective.  But then he
toned it back down... on purpose.  If he had kept those sharp jabs on the
front burner, not only would Rove have had the opportunity to prepare and
promulgate deflecting comments to spin away Kerry's attacks, but people
would be sick of hearing "that guy who criticizes the president all the
time" and wouldn't listen when he gets to the debate.  There is NO DOUBT IN
MY MIND that James Carville, Mike McCurry and Joe Lockhart have filled
Kerry's quiver with STUNNING one-liner criticisms of Bush's miserable
record - hell, it's EASY if you think about it.  Most Americans, who don't
care about this stuff nearly as much as we do, have *assumed* they will vote
for the president when the time comes and they'll firmly make up their minds
after watching the debates.  These are people who haven't heard Kerry
deliver anything like these criticisms yet, and when they do, their normal
assumption that the guy in office was doing pretty ok ("well, he IS the
president, after all") will be shattered right in front of them.  And I
think Kerry WILL even actually get to Bush and rattle him.  It happened with
John McCain in 2000 and was very obvious and shocking, but he wasn't the
"war president" then, and hadn't even won the primaries, so it wasn't as big
of a story.  THEN.

All roads lead, and have ALWAYS led, to Thursday night.  All the
calculations of this campaign hinge on the fact that Kerry *will* smoke Bush
hugely.  It's all set up now, we are in the endgame, and the endgame is
EXACTLY where Kerry shows his best stuff.  Look, these men running his
campaign are brilliant, as is he.  They KNOW everything that we know about
how important this election is - they KNOW what's at stake.  The men on the
other side think they can just keep on counting on Rove to hit home runs and
give them more and more points in their egotistical power game, but this
country - and Kerry's campaign - know better.  When Kerry delivers Truth,
which hasn't gotten through in all this time to the Fox viewers (and the
heretofore-nothing-political-viewers) in ways that are shockingly simple and
undeniable, it will pull them out of their chairs with the sudden strong
desire to vote for Kerry.

When running against an incumbent president, the way to win is first to
convince the voters that he is not the right guy, THEN convince them that
you ARE the right guy.  It will only take the tiniest little shove to finish
the job on convincing them that Bush is wrong, but with Kerry delivering the
death blow, his little Judo move (the debate) will also reassure the
on-the-fencers that he has the guts to fight the hard fight, that he does it
without hesitation, and that he does it SMART.

Watch and see a brilliant campaign unfolding.  You ain't seen NOTHING yet,
and it's still a dead heat!  :-)


   

[tjdee]

1. I think Bush will smoke Kerry. He is a master debater.

Who has never lost a debate and gosh darnit, people like him.

/puke


Good analysis.

[bushwakker]

11. Bush is more articulate than Churchill, more likeable than...

Kennedy, more strong-willed than Lincoln and smarter than Clinton. He is god who walks the earth and will make JK look like a lilliputian.

[henslee]

13. And he has the timing of Johnny Carson and the elocution of Richard Burton

and the humanity of Richard Pryor and the motivational ability of Martin Luther King.

[bushwakker]

22. and the "manhood" of john holmes n/t

[trumad]

2. Wrong....

Bush has never lost a debate.

[martinpecial]

5. some kerry one-liners

Unfortunately, substance in these debates can be overshadowed by a snappy one liner. Reagan's ``There you go again,'' for example. What should Kerry's be?

How about these suggestions: When Bush repeats his talking-points ad nauseum, Kerry could say, ``Are you a president or a parrot?''

For his final statement, I'd love to hear him say something like this: ``Reagan once asked, `Are you better off now than four years ago?' I'd like Kerry to ask a variation of that. He could say, `You may or may not be better off than four years ago, but I want to make this election bigger than just about ourselves. I want to ask if our country is better off now than four years ago. If you believe the answer is yes, vote for Bush. If you believe we can do better, and must do better, join us to change America.''

I'd love to hear other suggestions.

[Arkana]

6. Remember to check DUer Sparkly's handy chart

for media talking points...I think it's still up on the home page, if not, I'll try and find a link to it.

EDIT: Link: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x900115

[Josh]

16. Here's a line he can use re: his Iraq War vote -

this is an appropriation of something else I saw - I've added a bit.

"I voted to give the President a loaded gun. He took it and shot America in the foot." He can then elaborate on how Bush burned his bridges with the allies and now America is screwed. Loaded gun - shot America in the foot with it.

[Big Al from WI]

24. A little McEnroe

He's said this during some of his speeches, "The President can't be serious about this, can he?" Referring mainly to *'s actions in Iraq. So during the debates... "You can NOT be serious!"

[freeplessinseattle]

18. he's also never debated Kerry

there's a first time for everything-it is not impossible to beat *, I probably could, not to be immodest, but after all, dude was a C student in college, which the profs probably gave him just so he could pass (a D is usually equivalent to an F in college, at least for upperclassmen)Does he seem particularly proficient lately when speaking, even though his words are scripted?

[JuniorPlankton]

3. Would be nice, wouldn't it?

I am concerned about the sheeple and the media...

REMEMBER GORE!

[Cha]

4. And I agree! I've been telling people this

who say the same negative things to me that you have just listed..it's uncanny!

Whether by design or cosmic forces..Kerry is going into the debate ..the underdog..just like we like it!:D

[Demit]

7. Sigh. I think the other posters are right. Bush is just TOO good a debater

Your scenario would be a dream come true, and it depicts a Kerry team who know exactly what they're about, and exactly how to combat the slimy strategy of Rove and his henchmen, and it is a brilliant masterstroke that shows how our side can be Machiavellian and is playing this to win, but...

That Bush is just too good a debater.

[npincus]

8. concerned that this 'late' strategy invited a media pile-on

the media keeps repeating the same indictments and gloomy forecast for Kerry and this media-driven perception has taken hold to the detriment of Kerry. It has made Kerry's job harder and lowered the bar for Bush. I don't know if, in a national campaign, this 'saving the best for last' is wise. It is a gamble: what if something of a huge magnititude happens in the country or world, which distracts people at the time when Kerry needs them to pay attention. It is a big gamble. Frankly, I am a bit pissed at this strategy- there's too much at stake now to 'get out the message' in the homestretch.

I don't give a shit if this point of view is not well-received, it's what I think.

[Jackpine Radical]

23. He didn't have to INVITE the media pile-on.

It was gonna happen anyway, regardless of what Kerry did. Media hostility is a given. It's almost a surprise that they will accept & run his ads. Kerry has to find a way to get directly to the people. That's the bad news. The good news is that Kerry (and every Dem operative) has known all about this for a half dozen years. They've had time to plan. Let's sit back & see what they have in store for the electorate.

[molly]

9. I have never seen this country so angry and divided

* said he was a uniter not a divider.

[sniffa]

10. i have faith in kerry

there's indeed, a method to his madness.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

12. God himself could debate Bush and lose.

Bush is just that good.

[mrgorth]

14. These are not the points we want out there..

should've lowered the cones of silence.

[ShaneGR]

15. This man is clearly delusional, Bush is the KING of debating

He'll smoke Kerry like a Cuban Cigar.

[Jokinomx]

17. Its all about timing....

Everything you said is true. Kerry is a seasoned politician. He knows he couldn't play all his cards to early. I have maintained this position since early summer when Kerry was not as defined as he needed to be. Then I realized that the defining time will be from the debates on up to the election. Remember, the only people that he needs to convince are those few undecideds left. He has a solid base of former Gore voters and the Repugs that have seen the light. From Thursday night on, up until the election he will pull in more undecideds than chimp. The real campaign starts Thursday night and for the entire month of October the gloves come off.....and I will put my money on Kerry to pull out a real October surprise.

That is my humble opinion...

:kick:

[latebloomer]

19. Big KICK!!

Wow, this forum is busy!!

[Demi_Babe]

20. :-)

[WI_DEM]

21. well I hope that your friend is right

but we will see.