Winning OH, PA, WV means winning the election

[ps1074]

I said this may be several month ago and I will say it again. If Kerry wins OH, PA and WV I can't see a way Bush wins the election.

Even if Kerry loses Wisconsin's 10 EV and NM's 5 EV he will still win.

I don't expect all states to go the same way as in 2000. Some people's sentiment here is Kerry will win all Gore states. He won't. And Bush won't win all his states from 2000.

I expect NH to switch, Maine's 2nd CD may go to Bush as well as wisconsin (according to some polls) might switch.

But winning PA, OH and WV is crucial. I was glad to read last week that ACT is closing shop in Michigan and diverting resources to Ohio and PA.

If Kerry wins 2 of the big 3 swing states PA, OH and FL then Bush has no come back scenario.

I am sure Kerry's strategists know what they are doing. Don't fall for the national polls. It will come down to 5 or 6 swing states - PA, OH, FL, WV, WI, IA.

It was so good to read reports of Dems way ahead in IA absentee voting. It was so good to read about voter registration in FL and OH where repubs are getting their clocks cleaned big time.

We are going to win this one!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. win 2 of the following 3: Pa, Oh, Fl.

The winner will do that. I believe it will be Kerry.

[liberalpragmatist]

10. Actually, we can still lose 2 and win

Don't get me wrong: I agree that the winner will probably be the one who wins 2 of the 3 (Fla., Pa., or Ohio). However, if Bush loses 2 out of the 3 I seriously can see NO way in which he can win. On the other hand, I can see how Kerry can still win with only 1 of the 3.

[Kolesar]

2. Ohio is a must-win-state for *

Considering the new registration advantage, I feel good about Ohio. The yard sign and bumpersticker competition in Democratic NE Ohio looks more positive than it did for Al Gore, also.

[roseBudd]

3. SW Ohio volunteers contact me!

WE NEED YOU. COME TO OHIO!

[madmom]

4. have you seen this....

www.dailykos.com/story/2004/9/27/112229/106

please read and pass to as many people as possible.

[Kolesar]

6. Yes. There are several threads on this in GD2004 and the Ohio forum..eom

[BillZBubb]

5. Absolutely correct.

Pennsylvania is a must win for Kerry. If Kerry also wins Ohio, Bush* would need a miracle somewhere else to steal another one. And that's not likely.

But, we have a long way to go to win in Ohio. It's still an uphill battle there.

[ArnoldLayne]

7. Yep they are

the key states.

[Renew Deal]

8. Florida is the key to this election.

Kerry could lost OH, WI and maybe another small state and still win the election.

[PermanentRevolution]

9. Don't rely on Florida again...

Didn't you learn that in 2000? We're still under Jeb's nightmare reign down here, and they've been finding new ways to block Democratic votes all year. We NEED Ohio and Pennsylvania. I DON'T want to rely on this state to guarantee a Kerry victory.

[AnIndependentTexan]

11. yes you are under Jeb Bush; but You have Jimmy Carter

I saw footage of Jimmy Carter trying to defend Florida and lets just say it didn't look good for Jeb Bush attacking Jimmy Carter. What ever happen to respecting you're Elders?

[Awsi Dooger]

12. Agreed, it's the most important state

Florida is more likely than Ohio for Kerry, IMO. For all the jobs lost, I can't get beyond the numbers that Ohio has trended at least 3 points more Republican than the national average each of the last four cycles. We need to make that up in preference, registration won't be enough. Admittedly, Ohio would be easier to evaluate if Gore had made a full push there in 2000. The state may be closer to even than I think.

The key to the election is winning the popular vote. It's at least a 1/5 favorite that same candidate will win the electoral college.

[RamboLiberal]

13. Unemployment in Pittsburgh went up .3 last month

The Pittsburgh region's unemployment rate for August jumped to 5.7 percent from 5.4 percent the previous month, the state said Monday.
Unemployment roles in the six-county region rose by 4,600 last month compared to July, the Pennsylvania Center for Workforce Information and Analysis said. Total unemployment stood at 68,600.

"It's (employment) not going the direction we want it to go. You'll see this up-and-down movement when you emerge from a recession. But this was not a particularly good month," said Michelle Hiester, a state labor market analyst, in Harrisburg.

More state residents entering the labor force and not immediately finding work, combined with some residents losing their jobs, pushed the unemployment count up in August, she said.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/tribune-review/business/s_255828.html

Hope most of these people are voting for Kerry.