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The following rant was a response to someone who emailed me, worried about poll results and needing a positive thought or two. Thought I would post here FWIW.....much is DU-influenced and DU posters might find some of the thoughts familiar. Not sure if I helped or hurt her attitude though:
Saw an amazing speech by Ted Kennedy at George Washington University on CSPAN last night. You might want to keep an eye open for a replay or check out the CSPAN website for a video. Best speech I've seen him give. I saw a lot of the outrage and anger there that I've been waiting for.
The polls are worrisome, but likely inaccurate and shouldn't be given too much credence. Most polls usually don't take into account new voters (many, mostly progressives), confused voters, and voters for whom cell phones are their only phone (a lot of younger people). There is also evidence some polls haven't weighted polling properly in terms of party affiliation. Why? Note that many of the polls are either right-leaning or affliated with right-leaning media outlets (CNN, ABC, for example). Moreover, the polling companies and media outlets have a real economic interest in the polls showing a close race OR a surprising one. It means more polls, more fodder for talk shows and news shows. If the obviously best candidate were way ahead in the polls, there would be a lot less interest and therefore a lot less money flying around, and we are talking about big money. I bet the campaigns don't even mind the polls showing a tight race....more donations.
So...on the one hand, you have an incumbent president (tough to displace incumbents), and a war-time president (also tough to displace). You also have an extremely dishonest, clever campagin machine and dishonest administration that distorts truth like no other. Most of the media is aiding this administration and their campaign. ABC, CNN, NBC, and most cable news have been just awful and are complicit in this administrations failings. BBC and PBS are credible. CBS used to be but has recently done an about face due to the memo problem. (I might add that most of the media outlets now are owned by huge corporations that have high interest in an administration that believes that whatever is good for global corporations is good for America. Further, many of these parent corporations have direct interest in military/defense/energy activities in Iraq. NBC is owned by General Electric, a huge defense contractor involved deeply in Iraq. Clear Channel radio, an owner of many, many radio stations, is owned by the Carlylse Group, a defense/energy company on whose Board George HW Bush sits. FOX is a 24 hour propaganda infomercial owned by RW'er Murdoch This is a chilling trend that takes us a step closer pto fascism and corporatism. It used to be said that the media is a critical fourth branch of government, serving as critical watchdog on government activities. Can't be said now...)
On the other hand, annecdotally, the thinking is that Kerry is going to do better than Gore did in 2000, and Gore won the popular vote. More republicans are going to vote Kerry than democrats will vote for Bush, so the numbers should be better than 2000. Further, this administration has to be one of the worst and most dangerous in history and has demonstrably failed across the board domestically and in terms of foreign policy.
Remember: One candidate reads, is an author, has traveled the world, speaks more than one language, is a war hero, windsurfs, plays classical guitar, snowboards, is a pilot, can put a noun together with a verb, approaches problems thoughtfully, has a strong wife and great kids, rides a Harley.
The other doesn't read, has little interest in other countries, falls off bikes, is afraid of horses, was AWOL in the national guard, has never run a successful business even when the business is given to him, reportedly only started acting like an adult 14 years ago, tends to make bad decisions, relies on ideology rather than research and truth, started an un-necessary war, and plays a cowboy even though he's not from Texas and isn't really a rancher.
So....Except for the polls, black box voting, Jeb Bush doing what he can to suppress certain votes in Florida, and a compliant media we should feel pretty good.
(If you want a bigger scare sometime, I'll forward an article that outlines characteristics of typical fascist governments and then places them in comparison to this administration. Marginalizing of intellectual community, demonzing of certain groups, restriction of civil liberties, use of fear in politics, dishonesty, secrecy, reliance on ideology, and more directly relate to activities of the Bush crowd. We need to wake up and see the dangerous position we are in with this group that somehow snuck into office.)
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