Pew: Bush Margin Widens Again, Despite Vulnerabilities (BC48-KE40)

[tritsofme]

http://people-press.org/reports/print.php3?PageID=886

Summary of Findings

George W. Bush has reopened a significant lead over challenger John Kerry over the past week, even as voters express less confidence in the president on Iraq and he continues to trail Kerry on the economy. Two successive nationwide surveys of nearly 1,000 registered voters each show Bush's margin over Kerry growing steadily since mid-September (Sept. 11-14), when the two men were tied at 6%-46%. Bush's slight 45%-42% advantage in the Sept. 17-21 survey has grown to 48%-40% in the current poll (Sept. 22-26).

The poll finds that Bush's gains in support are being driven more by perceptions of Kerry's weakness especially on leadership and other personal traits than by improved opinions of Bush. Fewer voters favor Bush over Kerry on handling Iraq than did so earlier this month (46% now, 52% Sept. 11-13). But Kerry's rating in the head-to-head evaluation on Iraq is no higher (38% now, 40% then). The Democratic challenger continues to inspire more confidence than Bush with regard to improving the economy, which 60% of Americans believe is in only fair or poor shape. But even here, the percentage favoring Kerry has not increased since the Sept. 11-13 survey (46% now, 47% then).

Despite Bush's lukewarm evaluations on the issues, he maintains a significant advantage on most personal traits. Kerry has slipped slightly on some key personal assessments, including honesty and empathy. Overall, 32% of voters say the phrase "honest and truthful" better describes Kerry than Bush, down from 36% a few weeks ago (Sept. 11-13). Bush's rating in that period is unchanged at 41%.



<smip>

The positive aspect of this poll that is *'s ratings on the economy and Iraq are going down.

[dennis4868]

1. Is this one of those polls.....

that interview many more repubs than dems?

By the way, I dont see any positive apects by this poll or any other lately...arrrggghhhhh...........

[WiseMen]

2. PEW is Biased. Repug owned. Flawed methodology etc etc. ...

Folks, we need to face the fact that in Middle America there
has been only 1 significant campaign -- SwiftVets for Smears.

And it has had a profound effect. If the smear is not defeated
Kerry can kick and scream but will not be heard. The middle has
tuned out.

[tritsofme]

3. Don't some former Clinton people own Pew?

Maybe I'm confused with another firm.

This is the same poll people were brandishing around here last week when it showed a dead heat.

[dennis4868]

6. thats another poll

owned by Stan Greenberg and I believe James Carville...

[tritsofme]

8. No, thats DemCorps, I thought Albright was

associated with Pew in some way.

[dennis4868]

4. what is your proof?

PEW had it within the margin of error just recently....what is your evidence that this poll cannot be trusted? Gallup I know about, but what is wrong with the PEW poll?

[WiseMen]

12. I am being SARCASTIC for God's sake. The attack on polls have gone wild.

[Snivi Yllom]

31. My favorite is DU embracing FOX a few weeks ago for their polls

everyone needs to take a step back and take a breath

[WI_DEM]

5. Yet when its poll came out showing a tie race two weeks ago

it was praised!!

[dennis4868]

7. yep....

and now it will be called a biased poll....sheesh!

[West Coast Democrat]

24. Pew is okay, but like most other polls, they didn't get 2000 right either

their final polls showed a lead for Bush*

[59millionmorons]

28. Nor 1996

1996
Clinton Dole Perot Un- decided Other Clinton- Dole Margin Error
Poll - Elect Candidate
Error
Election Result 49.0% 41% 8% 2% 8%
CBS/NYT 53% 35% 9% 3% 0% 18% 10% 5.0%
ABC News 51% 39% 7% 3% 0% 12% 4% 2.0%
NBC/WSJ 49% 37% 9.0% 5% 0% 12% 4% 2.0%
Gallup/CNN/USA Today 52% 41% 7% 0% 0% 11% 3% 1.5%
ICR/Politics Now 51% 38% 11% 0% 0% 13% 5% 2.5%
Hotline/Battleground 45% 36% 8% 11% 0% 9% 1% 0.5%
Harris 51% 39% 9% 0% 1% 12% 4% 2.0%
Zogby/Reuters 49% 41% 8% 0% 2% 8% 0% 0.0%
PSR/PewCenter 52% 38% 9% 0% 1% 14% 6% 3.0%
Avg. Total Error 4.1% 2.1%

[dennis4868]

9. REALLY SAD.....

the worse Iraq gets and the worse the economy gets the better Bush does in this poll...WTF?

[59millionmorons]

10. Christian science Monitor poll Kerry 46-45

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

Rassmussen 48-46

[Teaser]

25. Forget it, the whiny babies want to whine.

Let them get it out. They'll feel better after a good cry.

[dennis4868]

26. I'm not crying!

:scared:

[jackstraw45]

11. Polls may be skewed but Kerry's campaign ISN'T getting the message across

The attack ads by Bush* have been effective with their lies.

Kerry's response hasn't been as strong.

Kerry should be UP by 10 points given the state of our country, economy, Iraq.

Kerry can win...I KNOW he can. But we can't just dismiss EVERY poll that comes out with Dim-Son ahead.

[dennis4868]

15. I just dont know what it is for sure....

many Kerry supporters blame Kerry himself for running such a bad campaign...and maybe that is partly true....but I think the problem is the media. I know many will say it is easy to blame the media. But lets face it, if the media was doing their job and investigating all of the Bush WH's crimes, fraud, and corruption we most likely would be talking about impeachment or Kerry with a 25 point lead easy!

[FDRLincoln]

13. legit poll

From what I've been following, the Pew poll is pretty legit, at least compared to Gallup. This is legitimately bad news I fear, although the Rasmussen and CSM polls also out today show the race as a tie still.

It will all come down to the debates, and Kerry IN PERSON presenting himself as a valid alternative to the Chimp-in-Chief.

[dennis4868]

16. the Pew poll is pretty legit

thats what I thought as well....people can bash me here if they want to...go ahead...but Kerry is in trouble and I am not basing that on Gallup either!

[FDRLincoln]

17. agree

I think if you look at everything, Bush is ahead but it's still very close and he is still vulnerable for an incumbent.

Under normal circumstances I think Kerry would win this, perhaps in a Reagan-like last-minute landslide like in 1980, but circumstances are no longer normal. The media environment is now completely tilted against him. He can still win but it will be a hard slog.

And if you check my previous posts you will find that I'm not a defeatist by any means, so no flames please. Chimp must be and can be defeated!! But we can't afford the luxury of wishful thinking either.

[dennis4868]

19. I am not a defeatist either....

but how in the world can Kerry make a comeback...there is no way in hell the media will declare Kerry the winner of the debates. The media will come down hard on Kerry after all of the debates and make him look silly ala Gore.

I just do not see a way for Kerry to make a comeback unless Bush totally fucks up and even then the media will cover for him!

[FDRLincoln]

23. Gore was in worse shape

Gore was in a worse position in 2000, and the media was just as hard on him as they are on Kerry, if not harder. Chimp has an actual record to defend in the debates, another difference from '00.

Kerry can win, do not doubt. But it is also possible that the American people will decide that they prefer Chimp, and we have to be prepared for that possibility.

I am personally waiting for the next Zogby poll before panicking.

[59millionmorons]

20. Legit Yes, accurate?

This chart shows by on average how each polling firm has done over the last 12-14 years. Zogby and Harris are the best and yes gallup and Rassmussen are the worst. The numbers are by how much on average they have missed there predictions by.

1.Zogby-1.0
2.Harris-2.0
3.ABC/WashPost-2.75
4.NBC/WSJ-3.0
5.Battleground-3.0
6.IICR-3.5
7.CBS -3.75
8.Pew-4.0
9.Gallup-4.25
10.Rasmussen-9.0

http://www.ncpp.org/1936-2000.htm

[papau]

14. If the move to the GOP party ID is real - these results are real. BUT I

do not think there has been such a move.
http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/226demographic.pdf
GOP 90- 3 (7)
DEM 10-81 (9)
IND 46-38 (16)

are split in voting by party,

but 48-40 has 12 not sure, which needs something close to 50% ind,

with say GOP at 26 and Dem at 24 (not exact as I did not actually solve - but close)

Not mathematically possible(?) with 95% confidence in a sea of 35/35/30 party split

[Teaser]

18. So many whiners today.

Fluctuations happen in polls, people, and for no reason.

God forbid any of you ever take a statistics class.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. I'm With You...

The polls are the polls....


Polling is part art and part science....

[Guaranteed]

21. That's because the media is whoring for Bush. nt

[bringbackfdr]

27. AAARRRRGGGHHH!

For just a couple of days could we puh-leeze quit obsessing over the horserace polls and focus on the campaign? As of this snapshot in time, according to the polls, we are losing. The snapshot could look very different by midnight Thursday (I refuse to believe that Shrub will get through the foreign policy debate without drooling or wetting his pants).
Screw the polls, let's work for votes!

[mvd]

29. I think the poll is legit, but remember..

polls do fluctuate. If things don't improve after the debates, I'll be really worried. But I think I'll still wait until the polls just days before the election to panic.

[incapsulated]

30. Fuck me...

I have some respect for Pew. I don't like this at all. :(

This puts even more pressure on Kerry with the debates, I'm sure all the media whores will tell us. *sigh*

[LittleClarkie]

32. I wish I could find Dem vs Repub data on their site

There isn't much under methodology. They talk about weighting the polls, but not how.