One reason Democratic strength is undervalued in presidential polls

[Awsi Dooger]

Women vote Democratic but are always more willing than men to tell pollsters they are undecided or have no opinion. That holds up in politics and virtually any opinion poll, according to my dad who was a sociology professor. I noticed it immediately when I began studying poll numbers in '96.

A typical state poll this cycle lists perhaps 4% of men as undecided and 6-7% of women. There is no reason to believe a majority of those women won't default to Kerry, especially since late undecideds tend to flock to the challenger anyway.

As a test, I looked at 22 states that have been isolated as competitive at one point or another this year, using the handy state-by-state table at American Research Group. http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ Their sample size is always identical at 600 voters.

Among the most recent polls in those states, 21 of the 22 listed more women as undecided than men, anywhere from 1 to 6 percent. Only Michigan was tied, at 9% undecided among both men and women. In fact, that was a huge percentage of undecideds compared to any other competitive state, for no apparent reason and making me question the sample's reliability. Every other state had 6% or less undecideds among men.