Prediction: Kerry will violate the Debate Rules

[dumpster_baby]

I predict that if Kerry is behind more than he is now at the time of the last debate, then he will viloate the debate rules and take direct unrehearsed questions from audience members.

He almost has to. It is almost a certainty that most of the political commentators on cable news shows will call the first debate a Bush win no matter what happens. That is what they did after the Gore-Bush debates, even after Bush made several major mistakes during the debate. And those cable tv commentators are widely watched. And most of them favor Bush (no surprise, as they are all making millions).

So, I think it likely that Kerry will be behind 5 or more points going into the last debate. He almost has to do something like disregarding the moderator questions (or answering them quickly, then taking questions from the audience). If he gives the right explanation, what can Bush do? If bush walks out, he will plummet in the polls. Kerry can make Bush like bad this way, and set himself up as somewhat of a maverick, which is a perception he desperately needs.

There will be a "shadow debate" by Badnarik (Libertarian candiate) and Cobb (Green party candidate) the night of the first debate (see here: http://www.emediawire.com/releases/2004/9/emw162111.htm ). I would hope that shadow debate by cobb and badnarik gets some play, as it will help set the stage for kerry's debate move, as it will build a background awareness among the voters that the Bush-Kerry debates are staged affairs, thus justifying kerry's move.

[liberal N proud]

1. I want to know why they agreed to the scripted questions first of all.

They gave these bastards what they wanted.
Got nothing in return

[marlakay]

3. Bush probably said he wouldn't debate unless they

gave him what he wanted!

[Kazak]

6. Fine, don't debate then...

That's how to handle that.

[goodwalt]

15. Scripted is lame- beut we did get three debates

We did get more debate time- last I heard, chimpy's camp was looking for 1 or 2 debates- might have just been a bargaining position though. Still- the adage "Be careful what you wish for" may come into play. Since Kerry IS right on the issues, and chimpy is well, you know what chimpy is. Getting the questions may minimize *'s exposure to making an ass of himself- but it can also maximize Kerry's ability to rip him a new one.

[zoeb]

2. Sometimes these things backfire...

the only thing the media talked about after Gore/bush debate was how Gore got into *s space. I would rather they discuss the answers than the acts.

[camaro69]

4. That will force * to wing it

he will crash. The more Kerry forces the issues the quicker * will be drawn away from his talking points.

[rndmprsn]

5. Ive heard the debate situation described this way...

kerry and bush are interviewing for the job...but unlike you or i, they get to write the questions.

[izzie]

7. It is hardly a debate. Frankly it shames this country.

I hope we see some action in the town hall one. Some one should jump up and say some thing. This is just bad.

[drscm]

8. Bush made no major mistakes in the Gore debates. He out and out LIED!

eom

[Stew225]

9. If this is a true debate then

Shrub is human.

[rainy]

10. Green, David Cobb told me he planned to show up and

demand a spot in the debate. He plans to commit civil disobedience.

[ReadTomPaine]

11. I actually think the Bush team will go off rules first , or will try to.

They want to get Kerry to complain about the format- this will put Kerry on the defensive and blunt any plans he might take regarding ignoring the rules himself. It also will make the restrictions a Kerry issue.

Assume that Bush has a lot planned and staked on these debates - his advisers know these are crucial to him, they always are. The key to understanding why Bush does well with these events is accepting that his performance is largely irrelevant in them. It is the way the GOP will stage the circus that surrounds the actual event which gives them the bounce they are looking for.

This is where the Kerry team will need to show their mettle and inventiveness, as they can really strip Bush nude on Thursday if they manage to preempt whatever Rove & Hughes have planned to frame the debates in the GOP's favor.

RTP

[Shopaholic]

13. And if Kerry violates the debate rules,

the media will crucify him for it. Then again, they've already got the cross & the wood & the nails all ready for him and are almost salivating at the prospect of being able to attack him after the debate on Thursday anyway. He might as well go off script, show the chimp up for the idiot he is and then kick some ass. Either way, the media is determined to paint him as the loser.

[LittleClarkie]

18. That goes with how it's being portrayed in the media so far

That the campaigns, plural, wanted the rules this way, rather than Bush's team. You KNOW Kerry would have preferred a more open debate, but I can just see the Bush team trying to make it look like the closed debate is what Kerry wanted.

[okieinpain]

12. no they will call it a tie. they have to look some what creditable.

[emulatorloo]

14. Shakespeare did ok with the Sonnet "rules"

Kerry will get his digs in with these rules.

But my guess is that Bush will violate them, and Kerry outta be prepared to attack.

[gatorboy]

16. The problem with trying to take unrehearsed questions,

Is he'll be forced not to, at least on camera.
They have already set it up to where the questions were given to the moderators in advance. If anyone asks a question that differs to what they originally had given, they'll be cut off.

[girl gone mad]

17. How can he?

The contract stipulates that the mic will be cut if any of the questioners go off script.