USA Today Runs Story On Gallup Poll

[BGrier]

Apologies if this has been posted. Check out the table of past results and party affiliations. It's outrageous.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-09-28-gallup-defense_x.htm

[StrongbadTehAwesome]

1. Yea! Now the story in the mainstream media isn't

"Bush up by 8 points," but "Is the poll that has 12% more Republicans valid when it says Bush is up by 8 points?"

[Carla in Ca]

16. Notice the RNC ad at the bottom of the story?

n/t

[senseandsensibility]

2. Great!

I'm glad to see the criticism of Gallup hit the mainstream! Moveon rocks!

[girl gone mad]

3. Is this even true:

"Norman, however, said that Gallup's "overall record since 1988 on presidential elections, senate races and the national vote on congressional elections is as good as anyone's. And their record in the 2002 elections was clearly the best."

?

I thought they were way off in 2000.

[tritsofme]

5. They were well within the sampling error in 2000

Final results had Bush 48% Gore 46% Nader 4%.

Actual results were Gore 48% Bush 48% Nader 3%

[bagnana]

8. yes, but what about October 20, 2000, when

they had Gore at 38 and Bush at 51, or some such? (see other related thread re: this stat). How could public opinion swerve that much? It doesn't make sense.

[krkaufman]

12. Exactly!! They can't afford to be wrong on Election Day...

... but they can certainly try to rig the perception game prior.

(see my post below for the October 2000 poll)

[tritsofme]

13. Was that part of their daily tracking poll

that only questioned something like 300 LVers a night, and did roll the average IIRC, I don't recall the specifics.

Even if it wasn't the poll could have been an outlier.

[krkaufman]

7. Waaaay off in 2000

Take a look at this old article (via a link posted earlier on DU)...

http://edition.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/27/tracking.poll/

[PermanentRevolution]

4. Wait... WTF?

USA Today is running an article criticizing their own polling? How strange. And how unlike what CNN did today on Inside Politics. Maybe there's hope for USA Today after all...

[featherman]

6. Letter to USA Today (sent to Walter Shapiro)

Dear Sir:
As much as the Gallup organization would like to cast fog and mist over the arcane world of political polling, their methodology does not pass the common sense test. They are, in effect, predicting that actual voter turnout will break down into 43% GOP, 31% DEM, and 26 % Independent/Other. This sample is extremely skewed and has no historical justification. It may be news to Gallup that the Democrats are still the majority party in this country but it should not be. It may be news to Gallup that for the past two elections, Democrats have comprised 39% of the voters in the general election and that the GOP percentage has never exceeded 35%. But it should not be.
The statement that there may be more "GOP identifiers now" is specious. Voters are either registered or they are not. If they are not registered as members of either major party ( if state rules prohibit voter identification, for example) then they are Independent or Other. Arbitrary guesswork that has no historical justification has no place in the model. Any increase in "identifiers" that are not registered members of either major party should show up by tilting the Independent/Other vote one way or the other. But this does not change the basic equation that the voting public is most likely to once again reflect historical patterns. That is simple common sense.

Cordially,

[bagnana]

9. thank you!!

The polling data is particularly misleading when accompanied by pundit theorizing on Bush's recent "surge" in the polls -- when actually he is in the same place he was months ago. It is pathetic.

[Tsiyu]

10. Thank You featherman

You must be one a' them READERS!

[krkaufman]

11. Wow. It's not just that they include more Republicans.

I'm amazed at the wild variation in % Repub/Dem from week-to-week. No wonder Gallup's polls are all over the place. They're gaming the "likely voter" makeup to get whatever result they're looking for.

Rep. likely voter % has varied from 32-44%
Dem. likely voter % has varied from 31-40%

And the latest poll has the Rethugs 1 pt from their max at 43% and Dems at their lowest %, 31.

Total b-s gaming of the "perception" game.

edit: Credit to USA Today for at least presenting the numbers.

[wanpete]

14. I dont even think

they care about the skewed numbers and the failed methodology. It's the perception that they're trying to create. Bush moves into election with huge lead over opponent. The hope is that many soft Kerry supporters will decide that there is no need to vote since he is so far behind. This story must be kicked and remain in the headlines. Much love to moveon. I hope others will help them in the fight to get the message out.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

15. Look at the graph. They spot the GOP 12 pts yet are only up 8.

So then Kerry is ahead by at least 4.

..........GOP Ind. Dem. GOP bias Bush Kerry
sample 43% 25% 31% .. +12% .. 52% 44%

[andino]

17. bump

[AmerDem]

18. it is a dupe..here is the link

if you want to read posts of others...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x915260