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I got a bad feeling that we're setting ourselves up

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Jai4WKC08 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 10:05 AM
Original message
I got a bad feeling that we're setting ourselves up
Putting all our eggs in one basket, as it were.

Oh,, I've said it too, that this debate will be "make or break" for Kerry. Maybe it will be.

But otoh, I don't believe that Bush has the election sewn up, whatever happens in the debate (short of Kerry doing something really stupid, and he's not a stupid man).

Bush may be up in the national polls, but not decisively and there's good reason to believe those polls are skewed, if not out-right falsified. Polls in the battleground states are all over the place, and that's where the votes really count. Bush has an advantage, but is it so great it can't be overcome all by itself?

Besides, a lot can happen between now and Nov 2nd. Sure, I expect a Rovian October surprise. But something just as damaging to Bush could happen too. Or Kerry's campaign might have a surprise or two on tap. Or whatever the Repubs do might backfire. They are not invincible and a lot of their recents coups have been (probably) pure luck, which may run out.

I'm not trying to discount the importance of tomorrow night. I'm as worried as anybody about how Kerry will do, and how the media will spin it regardless.

I guess I'm getting tired, and a little scared, of hearing all over the media, and here, and elsewhere on the net, that Kerry HAS to "win" this debate or he's toast. If he doesn't, if he only holds his own, are we all going to just give up? Even if we don't mean to, will we be so disheartened that we'll assure defeat? One of our own making?

Think about it, people. If we pin all our hopes on one event, especially one that the Repubs have engineered to be inconsequential, we may be setting ourselves up for a dissappointment from which we cannot recover. That could very well be part of Karl Rove's plan too.
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HughBeaumont Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 10:09 AM
Response to Original message
1. Especially since this really isn't even a debate
so much as it is a "sound-bite-a-thon", where the *hole can work his folksy voodoo on Dumberica and the Republimedia. Thank Rove for that. "Turd Blossom" can't allow his man to look bad, which in a real debate he would be buried under 1000 tons of gravel.
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Sugarcoated Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 10:22 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. The media is getting it wrong, has been all along
with their "group think" and probably brown nosing analysis.

The debates may sway that small margin of undecideds one way or another, but those undecides, most of them, hate Bush, they're looking for a reason to get behind Kerry. He doesn't need a knockout to sway them.

Here's the big part that the media can't seem to grasp: the polls are INACCURATE because the new voters registering, the young voters that cared less in 2000, the Nader people that were kicking themselves that are voting Kerry, the unrest that's teeming everywhere in this country. No matter what Kerry does in those debates, NONE of these people are gonna be swayed to Bush. It's ANYONE but that lying dimwit.

And I know I'm contradicting a bit here by saying this, but the polls in the SOUTHERN STATES ARE GETTING CLOSER!

The media just wants a horese race, it's that manufactured drama, it's the new disgusting style they have of making news more exciting.

They're gonna have shows after the election "How did the media have it so wrong?" and "Are the polls BS?"

Too many Kerry signs, reports from people in traditionally solid Republican areas all over the country with signs and bumper stickers. Huge crowds.

The media is just not getting it right, OUT OF TOUCH PEOPLE

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napi21 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 10:15 AM
Response to Original message
2. There is only ONE even that's make or break! Nov. 2nd!!!
After all the hype, I'll be interested to see what the viewership of these debates really was. I suspect the media is spinning this debate as a make or break for their own self interest. After all, they are giving up their prime time shows to air it! They want the highest viewership possible!

I bet, barring something really dumb by either candidate, the media will declare this debate a tie, so now you have to watch the second one!!!
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KharmaTrain Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 10:17 AM
Response to Original message
3. This Has Been A Long Time Democrat Crutch
The Kennedy myth still lives...probably more considering Kerry's initials and state of origin.

I noted this recently of how the Democrats have come to rely upon the debates as so vital to the election outcome as to allow the GOOP to manipulate how these debates are done. It's to the point of Vernon Jordan all but kissing James Baker's ass just to get 3 debates...and going back to when Kerry called for weekly debates.

Everyone placed a lot of weight on the debates in 2000 and even though Gore ran circles around Bunnypants that night, the media spin went in full-destroy mode that night in mocking him for "lock box" and looking stiff. I expect Kerry to get a similar work-over tomorrow night.

The frustration many of us are experiencing is we felt that having so much truth and the moral high ground and unity on so many issues would force the media to play fair. It hasn't.

Kerry has to just turn it loose...as I've seen him in previous debates. Sadly, the rules are stacked against him...especially in the first debate where the format will play only to soundbites and very little fact checking.
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troublemaker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 10:20 AM
Response to Original message
4. Is our goal victory or maintenance of hope?
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Jai4WKC08 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 10:33 AM
Response to Reply #4
8. "Maintenance of hope"?
Or maintenance of effort?

If it takes hope to keep people working, contacting new voters, donating to PACs and 527s, trying to get the truth out, maybe the two are the same thing.

I'm not talking about some New Age-ish "if you believe it, it will come true." I'm talking about the very real fact that people make more of an effort if they can believe their efforts will pay off. Or have a reasonable chance of doing so.

And too, one of our greatest strengths from the beginning has been, our unity in knowing just how bad BushCo is. It's what will induce a lot of people to vote who never have before. If those people come to think the situation is hopeless, might they just stay home? If the people who aren't that crazy about Kerry and would really like to vote for Nader, might they do so if they come to think Kerry can't win anyway?
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JI7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 10:24 AM
Response to Original message
6. i agree, while debates will be important we should not view it as
the last and only thing we have left.
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Sugarcoated Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-29-04 10:28 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. And want to add to my post
that the Bush mob KNOWS what I'm saying is true, and behind the scenes they're nervous as hell and spinning like crazy. And they've got the media morons on their side, of course. But as I said before, that WILL NOT matter this time.
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