DemCorps: Bush 49% Kerry 46%

[tritsofme]

http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/surveys/Democracy_Corps_September_26-28_2004_Survey3.pdf

Q.23 (ASKED 3-WAY WHERE NADER ON BALLOT AND 2-WAY OTHERWISE) Thinking about
the elections in November, if the candidates for President were Republican George Bush, Democrat John
Kerry and Independent Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote?
Total
John Kerry..................................................................................... 44
Lean John Kerry............................................................................. 2
George Bush.................................................................................. 48
Lean George Bush.......................................................................... 1
Ralph Nader ................................................................................... 1
Lean Ralph Nader .......................................................................... 0
(Other)............................................................................................ 1
Lean (Other) ....................................................................................-
(Undecided).................................................................................... 2
(Refused) ........................................................................................ 1
Total John Kerry......................................................................... 46
Total George Bush....................................................................... 49
Total Ralph Nader........................................................................ 1
Total (Other)................................................................................. 1
Total (Undecided/Refused) .......................................................... 2

Its in PDF form and kind of confusing to post here, but the link is above.

[David Dunham]

1. This poll seems exactly right as to where we stand now.

We need to work very hard to win, but we can do it.

[lancdem]

3. Yes, this seems about right

It's close enough Kerry can still win.

[Renew Deal]

2. 51% Bush- 43% Gore

Same shit

[sonicx]

4. the theory behind that is...

people lie and say they voted for the winner. makes sense...but if the pollsters know this, then why do they ask this question?

[jefferson_dem]

5. Yup. People think that if they say they voted for the winner, they

are also a winner.

Truthfully, i think many people don't even remember who they actually voted for, in the first place. They may have sub-consciously talked themselves into believing that they actually did vote for the winner.

Social-psychologists have a field day with that kind of "irrationality."

[tritsofme]

7. Surely Carville and Greenberg

aren't shilling for bush?

[jefferson_dem]

6. Dem Corps (i.e. Carville - Greenberg) also have a "Dem Targets" paper here

http://democracycorps.com/reports/analyses/Democratic_Targets.pdf