New CNN Ohio Poll

[Richardson08]

Registered
Bush-46%
Kerry-50%

Likely
Bush-50%
Kerry-48%

[LimeCoke]

1. Link?

n/t

[Richardson08]

3. Paula Zahn just announced them on CNN about two minutes ago

[Richardson08]

7. Zahn announced them on Inside Politics with Judy Woodruf

Zahn will have new two more battleground state polls on her show tonight at 8pm

[hatrack]

28. Did Judy break out in assholes and shit herself to death?

We can dream, can't we . . . . ;-)

[LimeCoke]

17. Thanks

I'll watch then.

[Beetwasher]

2. What???

This is Gallup? If so that's pretty phenomenal...Link?

[michigandem2]

6. why would this come out today after the poll they just did

showed bush up by 8 pts??? I am so confused..is CNN backpedaling?

[Richardson08]

4. Bush had an 8 point lead in likely voters but now it's 2 points

[camaro69]

8. It's over * lost. The fat lady is warmin up.

[sonicx]

9. another lovely gallup swing. nt

[WI_DEM]

5. well are they reporting it as a major gain for Kerry?

I believe the last Gallup poll of Ohio had Kerry down 8 points or more.

[RobertSeattle]

10. Sounds like a special Orange Alert for OHIO will becoming soon!

/Sarcasm

[jezebel]

11. They may even have to go with a red alert ;) NT

NT

[Lex]

12. Gallup's state polling numbers don't make sense with their national number

How do they possibly reconcile the numbers they see in their state polling with what they are declaring in their overall national number?

[sonicx]

13. i agree. if kerry is winning ohio, the race is either close or...

kerry's ahead a little. remember, repukes have never won without ohio.

[DarthDem]

18. Exactly

The polls are just all over this place right now. Still, this is absolutely phenomenal news. Tee hee! Gallup!

Say, does anyone know if electoralvote.com uses RVs or LVs? I so want to see Ohio flip to blue on that damn map . . . .

[Awsi Dooger]

20. You beat me to it, Lex

Amazing transformation in Ohio, suddenly 12 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole.

Compare that to recent actual and you can see how idiotic or intentionally slanted the CNN/Gallup national poll has to be:

Ohio:
'88: Bush (55.00 - 44.15) = + 3.13% Republican
'92: Clinton (40.18 - 38.35) = + 3.73% Republican
'96: Clinton (47.38 - 41.02) = + 2.17% Republican
'00: Bush (49.97 - 46.46) = + 4.02% Republican

[sonicx]

21. AwsieDooger, what do those percents mean?

Is that the increase in number of repubs in ohio?

[Awsi Dooger]

25. The number at right is comparison to the national average that year

Sorry, sonicx. I neglected to mention that in my previous post. It is a popular vote comparison. For example, if Kerry wins nationally by 2 points but wins Oregon by 6 points, Oregon would be listed as +4.00 Democratic.

Here is a link to an old thread of mine which contains the trends from every state and D.C.: http://www.democraticunderground.com/cgi-bin/duforum/duboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=5453&forum=DCForumID22

[democrat in Tallahassee]

14. I don't trust them, no matter what they say. CNN sucks

[charlie105]

15. Just got back from work. That's fantastic news! yay!!!

[Thrill]

16. AGAIN Likely voters

they are basically not counting young people and minorities.

[Teaser]

19. Am I seeing things?

overheard at Gallup:
"Frank, these numbers just don't make sense. How can Bush be 15 points ahead nationally if Kerry is 10 points ahead in Cali and NY, and is almost tied in a state like Ohio? It doesn't add up."

"Well, it does add up if you put our patented 'factor x' into the equation."

"'Factor X?' What's that."

"It's this little curvy symbol here. See it. Just add 'factor x' to that list of the president's numbers, and subtract it from the other guy's numbers"

"OK, but what the hell is 'factor x' it looks like it's just 15 extra percentage points added for no reason at all."

"Yeah. Amazing, isn't it. You add 'factor x' to any list of numbers, and the sum of the entire list is increased by an amount equal to whatever 'factor x' is. Works every time."

[Generator]

22. Factor X that wouldn't be...gasp...propaganda would it??

Cover your ears.

[lancdem]

23. Notice the 6-point swing from RVs to LVs

Typical Gallup. :eyes:

[yellowcanine]

24. 6 point switch in Bush's favor between "Registered" and "Likely"?

Factor in the energized new young voters and the fact that they are underpolled because they only use cell phones and I would guess that the truth is that Kerry leads by 4-5 points in Ohio.

[underpants]

26. As you can see President Bush still holds a lead in the crucial Ohio vote

Tell me one of the talking heads didn't just say that. It wouldn't surprise me if they did though.

[bushwakker]

27. no wonder the sec of state in ohio is shitting his pants

the more people who vote the better we do.