KERRY Ahead In Ohio 49-46 - according to Gallup!

[liberalpragmatist]

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-09-29-battleground-poll.htm.

Among registered voters, Kerry is at 49, Bush at 46 in Ohio. But of course, with their screwy LV model Bush is ahead 49-47.

That being said, there is some evidence that Gallup state polls are more reliable than their national polls, especially if you just take the RV state poll numbers. As Ruy Teixera noted in his blog (http://www.emergingdemocraticmajority.com) Gallup's national polls contradict their own state polls, showing a 20-point Bush lead in the West, which would mean Bush would be winning California - exce. even according to Gallup, Bush is way behind there.

Nevertheless, Ohio is great news. But take it with a grain of salt - this is Gallup. But like I said, there RV state polls are generally more accurate.

[tedoll78]

1. I'm feeling pretty good right now.

New voter registrations are indications that our ground game is far superior this year. If we're near-tied when Election Day comes around, I think we'll pull it off. Especially since undecideds will break our way.

[IHaveADream]

3. That's good news - bush is only up by 8% nationally

That's only about 14 million voters! We can do this!

[cyr330]

2. Imagine the Reality

If they have him just barely ahead like that, he's probably 20 points ahead!

[gospelized]

4. unless they've changed their sampling procedure

this means he's actually more like 10 points ahead.

[JI7]

5. remember, Clinton won both elections with under 50 percent of popular vote

but he did well in the electoral college. although he still had the plurality of votes.