http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6090776/CLEVELAND - If the presidential election in Ohio hinges on the economy, Sen. John Kerry should have a good chance of winning the crucial state and its 20 electoral votes. These are tough times in the Buckeye State, which was hit hard by the recession of 2001 and has continued to suffer even as most of the country has enjoyed a rebound in job growth.
Yet with just five weeks left before Election Day, President Bush holds an impressive lead in statewide opinion polls, suggesting either that Ohioans are willing to tolerate their state’s weak economy or that they are more focused on issues of war and homeland security.
Pollsters and political analysts say there is some truth to both theories. Democrats overwhelmingly cite the economy as the No. 1 issue in the campaign, while Republicans are more likely to mention either foreign policy or national security, said Eric Rademacher, co-director of the University of Cincinnati Ohio Poll.
“The temptation is to say, let’s find the one issue people are going to be voting on,” Rademacher said. “But some voters really are looking at both. And there may be a third issue there, that we’re not picking up on, that is going to be the tiebreaker.”