Black Voter Erosion is REAL.

[qwlauren35]

I know some of you probably think I'm crazy for repeating this. I'm not doing it to sow discord. When I look at this data, it appears to be valid, and I'm CONCERNED.

Here is my data source:
http://people-press.org/reports/tables/224.pdf

It is quite striking that only the black vote for Kerry is consistently dropping. It went from 83% to 76% in the past month, and is still trending downward. Other constituency groups seem to be bouncing around.

Here is the accompanying article - to me it looks legit and non-partisan.
http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=224

And the home page:
http://people-press.org/

Now that I've pointed it out, with as factual a source as I can find, I'd feel much better if I thought that someone took this seriously enough to try to find out why and reverse it within the next 30 days.

I've been busting my fanny for a few months now, trying to win North Carolina for Kerry. I've bought and passed out nearly 1000 bumperstickers, organized rallies, put up ads in newspapers, written letters to the editor, canvassed, called, collected new voter registrations. I have stood in front of restaurants and grocery stores, walked blocks, dashed through the bleachers of Pee-Wee football games to register new voters.

And I can attest that here and there, I'm seeing black folks who are NOT going to vote for Kerry.

I have also seen QUITE CLEARLY that the Campaign seems to be putting a lot of effort on registering in black communities, based on the ASSUMPTION that we will vote for Kerry. If this assumption is WRONG, even by 10-20%, it can make a difference in the election.

I'm concerned. I'm very concerned.

But I don't know what else to do except to point it out and hope that action will be taken.

[bullimiami]

1. you will have to wait until

after the election to see real numbers.

i would be surprised if it is not very similar to the support gote got in 2000. 90+%.

[WI_DEM]

7. the question is not getting 90%

it is what turnout will be. If it is high as it was for Gore then were fine, if the African-American community doesn't turnout in sufficient numbers it could hurt. But I think Kerry is recognizing it which is why he recently hired Jesse Jackson as a senior advisor and is sending Obama to key states.

[Awsi Dooger]

25. I disagree, percentage is much more vital than turnout

Just look at this example: among every 1000 blacks let's give Kerry 90% to Bush's 10%, discounting Nader, etc. That's a net +800 for Kerry. Now slice the margin to 85-15. That plummets to a net +700 for Kerry, a loss of 100.

To retrieve 100 net votes, Kerry would need 144 more voters among an 85-15 percentage, a full 11.44% surge in turnout and that's never going to happen.

I'm trying to demonstrate my overriding pet peeve on DU lately, this jolly overemphasis on registration as opposed to shift in preference. Kerry can do more to swing things our way by with one brilliant campaign theme or sound-byte than all these new Democratic voters can manage even if every one votes, and 100% for Kerry.

[Awsi Dooger]

27. That should be 14.4% surge in turnout, not 11.44%

I screwed up the edit and now I can't re-edit, for some reason. Sorry, couldn't sleep on debate eve.

[aquart]

2. Are they going to vote for Bush?

What action did you have in mind?

[qwlauren35]

10. Looking at the data...

The support for Bush actually has NOT picked up. It's holding steady at 13%. At first glance it looks like there is a growing camp of undecideds. Right now it looks like its at 11%. However, last month it was ALSO 11%. So either the undecided camp is shifting -OR- some people have definitely switched allegiances.

What action can be taken????

I have a few ideas, but some things might alienate other voters...
- show that Kerry regularly attends church services (especially since Bush does NOT!)
- clarify that Kerry is NOT pushing to APPROVE gay marriage, he's leaving it up to the states instead of backing an unnecessary ammendment.
- post the short list of African-Americans who would be considered for cabinet posts. Somehow, I think a lot of people underestimate how much weight that carries. We want to be at the table of power. Say what you want about Rice & Powell, but they are visibly at the table - and that image means something to black voters.
- don't just enlist Jesse Jackson! Pull in some of the NEW PLAYERS. There are lots of hip-hop artists who would stump for Kerry if they were asked. But they have to be asked.
- Kerry needs to show his connection to our community in public. Not just when he's talking to us! Everyone should know that he was on the Tom Joyner show in the same way they know he did late night TV.
- try the rainbow approach. Not the all or nothing approach. When making a flyer for a black community, don't put ALL black people in it. Then it's clearly targeted, and that's insulting. Show a rainbow of people, show Kerry reaching out to a rainbow of people, show Kerry drawing a rainbow of people. African-Americans, Latinos, Asians, whites.

I'll be the first one to admit that I spend so much time on the ground that I don't have time to focus on the media. So maybe some of my ideas are happening, and I just don't know it.

But what I do see scares me. That's why I'm talking about it.

[JI7]

12. do you think he offended some Afrian Americans when he compared

gay rights to the civil rights that african americans fought for ?

[qwlauren35]

28. Not sure...

I do know that such statements are horribly offensive to many African-Americans for two basic reasons:
- gay people are not easily identifiable from a distance as African-Americans are; I'm not saying that life in the closet is a joyous experience, but at least there is some choice. We're "out" from the day we are born until the day we die.
- gay people have never been enslaved or disenfranchised as African-American people have been; again, if white gay people do not publicly acknowledge their orientation, then they have all of the same rights and privileges as any other white American. They can vote, hold jobs, live wherever they wish. While there is a common history of ostracism, discrimination and violence toward the gay community as a whole, it is somewhat different from being able to trace back your personal history and knowing that, at a certain point in history, ALL of your ancestors were being beaten, whipped and/or raped.

Many of us abhor discrimination of any kind. I for one believe that sexual orientation should never be a cause for discrimination. However, I think the parallels between African-American issues and gay issues only go so far.

[beaconess]

42. VERY well said!

[wtmusic]

3. 1st of all, thanks for your hard work

:yourock:

2nd: Do they say why they're switching?

[qanda]

4. Are you saying that black people plan to vote for Bush...

Not one person in my family, even the ones who are black Republicans, are voting for Bush. I don't know if you're saying that they are not voting for Kerry because they plan to vote for Bush, and if you are that just has not been my experience.

[Supersedeas]

26. I read low incentive for turn-out (what more incentive is there?)

[JohnnyCougar]

5. The Kerry campaign hired Jesse Jackson as an advisor

he will be travelling with the team from what I have heard.

[bringbackfdr]

6. If Kerry needs to spend extra time wooing the black vote ...

He is cooked. How any African-American could feel he/she is better off with Shrub is beyond my comprehension. This election is simply too close for Kerry to be able to make a concerted effort wooing a constituency that, through sheer common sense, should be his.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Like J.C Watts's Dad Says...

A black person voting Republican is like a chicken voting for Colonel Sanders...

[digno dave]

45. sadly, Gay Marraige has alot of African Americans turning away...

[mzmolly]

9. I'm concerned too Lauren.

I hope JK can turn this around.

[JI7]

11. how about John Edwards ?

if you are campaigning in north carolina than they should know about edwards.

[qwlauren35]

16. I have my concerns there too.

Anecdotally, I have gotten in a number of arguments with a black voter in NC who proclaims quite loudly that Edwards didn't do a damned thing for NC while he was senator, and instead spent his entire 6 years gearing up for his presidential run.

Also, Edwards' track record with animal rights groups in NC is dismal.

On the other hand, the campaign office says that use of Edwards' name tends to positively influence NC voters. So I have to hope that the number of voters who feel that Edwards was "unfaithful to the state" or not sufficiently pro-animal will be small.

All of our material: our bumperstickers, flyers, yard signs, etc. says Kerry/Edwards.

We're doing our best.

[spooky3]

20. Do you have a link to any EVIDENCE concerning Edwards' votes

or views on animal rights?

When I searched for this type of info earlier, I found next to nothing, and what I found did not support that view. So I'd appreciate help if someone has it.

If not, I think we'd do better NOT to repeat another RW talking point; I can't imagine that K-E's record on animal rights is worse in any way than the B-C record.

[qwlauren35]

23. It's not Kerry.

It's specifically Edwards. I will attempt to find it.

Here is where I first saw it:
http://health.groups.yahoo.com/group/ncvegans/

This article shows that Edwards' voting record on animal rights isn't nearly as stellar as Kerry's.
http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/1/2004/223/1/26

Hope that clarifies what I'm hearing.

[Jane Austin]

41. I'm sure not for animal cruelty,

but some of those Animal Rights groups are very extreme.

Their ultimate stated goal is to not have pet ownership, pet sports (dog shows, dog events) and more.

I am a dog fanicier, having owned the #1 Golden Retriever (All Systems) for four consecutive years in the late nineties, and I love and live with ten Golden Retrievers, some of which have hunting and performance titles, too.

Neither Kerry nor Edwards has to (or should) align themselves with the extremist Animal Rights groups in my view.

Unless, of course, they don't want the votes of tens of millions of pet owners in the United States.

[Barney Rocks]

35. I know that we have

some old family friends who live in North Carolina, they visted here about a month ago and were very emphatic--they HATE Edwards. A few reasons, I won't go into all that garbage here. But fortunately they are still going to vote for the Democratic ticket. I personally like Edwards, but he is not as popular in North Carolina as I had hoped he was.

[lalajohns]

13. STOP believing that got darn CRAP

I am a Black person and am very political connected to African Americans and the data still stands that Blacks will overwhelming vote for Senator John Kerry.

Stop believing those bull.chit polls!

[funkybutt]

14. Groups I've been working with have registered over 1500 voters

the majority of those being African American. My findings are in stark contrast to yours. I've never seen the African American community so energized for change in my life (I'm 28). They are super responsive to our voter registration initiatives. Just last night, While clipboarding in front of a local grocery chain, TWO people left the location, went and located an unregistered person, and returned with them to the store so that they could register. We got 40 people registered at two grocery store locations.

A quote that has stuck with me: "I really appreciate you doing this! We've got to get Kerry elected b/c we can't stand for 4 more years of making wars!"

Here's a link to another voter registration outreach event I was envolved with --> http://english.ohmynews.com/ArticleView/article_view.asp?menu=A11100&no=189465&rel_no=1&back_url=

[lalajohns]

17. Whether you like Jesse Jackson or not..

Jesse will bring many Black voters to the polls.

[clintonlover]

15. Black voters are registering in record numbers

I know because I'm black. As a whole, we detest Bush. From day one when he stole the election. Believe me- we do not want another 4 years of Bush. Don't believe everything you read.

[GOPBasher]

31. Welcome to DU, Clintonlover!

hi :hi:

[clintonlover]

32. Nice to meet you, GOPBasher

[Awsi Dooger]

18. We'll lose a few points among blacks, probably 3-5, nothing more

I've anticipated that all year and placed it in my Excel models, long before these media stories.

Kerry does not connect with blacks like Clinton did, and much more importantly you're naturally going to lose support among a 90% bracket when opposing an incumbent who has a 50/50 approval rating. Familiarity breeds support in politics, as long as you're not despised.

[clintonlover]

21. This election for many blacks is not about Kerry.

It is about getting rid of Bush. We'll connect with Kerry later. Bush will lose.

[robbedvoter]

19. Smoke and mirrors: women, blacks, black gays - somehow they all

get mesmerized by W. Must be a secret nickname he gives them.
Stop buying Rove's BS!
The black constituency is one of the most politically savy there is.
I doubt that Ashcroft's ideas won many over for W!

[Eurobabe]

22. well you can't think that someone is going to 'naturally'

vote for Candidate X based on skin color or gender, right? Quite honestly, Rev. Al said this best back at the Black Caucus debate during last years' primary. Seems like African Americans HAVE been left at the dance by the Dems at times, and every four years the DNC remembers them, that's about all.

I think there is SO much more that could have been done in those in between years...just my honest opinion.

[npincus]

24. Clinton needs to get his ass on BET tv

Not to oust him from his sick bed, but he is well enough to SPEAK... I think the media would make the trip to Chappaqua, if need be.

He can also give interviews to Amsterdam News, Essence, etc. and try to motivate those who respect him.

[qwlauren35]

34. I have to say - that would make a HUGE difference.

While I have, here and there, met some black folks who don't like Clinton, most are still in love with him.

Less than 100 words from Bill Clinton would do a lot for Kerry's campaign.

The man has a lot more influence than Jesse Jackson...

But I still think that getting Russell Simmons involved would be extremely powerful.

[sandersadu]

36. Here's the Deal

I'm black and I'm going to support Kerry 110%. The problem is that Kerry, and Democrats in general don't realize that diversity really matters, and it matters when you're "at the table."

We've got to stop doing black/brown/rural/gay outreach and have the actual people at the table and in the campaign. You shouldn't outreach to your own base.

For example, if Kerry had black folks at the table, he'd have enlisted historically black fraternities and sororities such as Omega Psi Phi and Delta Sigma Theta. There are literally hundreds of thousands of members all over the country who would eagerly work for Kerry. (They're doing it anyway, but would increase efforts with a "semi-official" campaign status. Next, he should have enlisted two of the greatest preachers, black or white in this country to help.

Most of you have never heard of Bishop T.D. Jakes or Bishop Noel Jones, but black folks have. Those two men could literally move thousands and thousands of people. I know, I've been to their New Year's religious revivals.

I could go on, the point is we've got to start bringing in people who really understand various communities to be part of the campaign, not just appendages. There are probably similar people, institutions and media apparatus in the Latino, Asian, and Gay community, but Democrats stupidly don't bring them "into the fold."

If we win, it will be by accident. This has got to change.

[npincus]

40. great point- surprised this wasn't done before

I know Donna Brazile and Jesse Jackson had complained about that a while back, but I thought it had been addressed.

[beaconess]

46. Kerry HAS reached out to the black fraternities and sororities . . .

But it's been done at the grassroots level, where it really counts. Kerry has a number of people on his staff whose only job is to work with members of groups such as these and they've been very effective. However, these fraternities and sororities can't officially or even semi-officially work with the Kerry campaign because they could lose their tax-exempt status.

They can, however, do non-partisan political work and they are. All of the black fraternities and sororities are actively engaging in Get Out the Vote and voter registration efforts on a massive scale. For example, Delta Sigma Theta's president sent out the following letter just last week:

September 21, 2004

Sorors,
The future is now!

As we prepare this communication, there are 41 days remaining before the 2004 elections will take place. The actions we take—and those we do not take—will in large part determine the future of our communities, our nation, indeed the world. If we are ever going to affect social change and public policy, the time—once again—is now!
As community and civic leaders, I call on all Sorors to actively participate in Election 2004.

This is a critical election, not only for the future of people of African descent, but for all humanity. For the next forty-one days, we must commit ourselves to Get Out The Vote!

Therefore, I am issuing this Urgent appeal asking the following:

• that each Chapter plan and initiate a “Get Out The Vote” campaign and communicate that plan to our national headquarters via e-mail to:
[e-mail] and send it to the attention of the Social Action Commission;

• that each Soror agree to vote and get one other person to commit to vote in the 2004 election; and

• that each Chapter join with one or more of our long-term partners (e.g., Unity ’04 and the NAACP) to ensure that registered voters are not turned away at polling places.

All politics are local…they affect the quality of air you breathe, the food you eat, the lights on your street, refuse collection in your neighborhood, the appointment of men and women to the judiciary, the availability of and access to jobs, the quality of education for our children, and the safety of our schools and our communities.

Our Founders marched for social justice nearly 100 years ago. And, they did not have the right to vote. We must honor this legacy. So, in honor of our Founders, we have provided you with 22 easy ways to help ensure victory on Election Day!

Sincerely,
Louise A. Rice
National President

http://www.deltasigmatheta.org/Call-to-Elections.pdf

The Kerry Campaign is on top of this, even if everyone doesn't know about it.

[qwlauren35]

54. Thanks for that Clarification.

It's funny about tax-exempt status. Obviously some white preachers never worry about losing it. Wonder why that is...

but at any rate, I'm glad you clarified. I feel better.

However, where we are, it's not working. We have a paid staffer who is SUPPOSED to be working on HBCU & church outreach... and it's not happening.

On the other hand, I sense that you're right. A lot is going on at the grassroots level.

So what I *hope* will happen in the next 30 days is that we will see some visible fruit. Right now, it sounds like an octopus of many arms, and we can't see what the other is doing. We need HOPE, and hope means seeing the big picture.

We'll see what happens.

[beaconess]

55. Where are you? If this staffer is not doing their job, you should

let the campaign know about it. That's certainly not what they want to be happening.

You're right - the big picture is important. But it's really hard sometimes to make sure that everyone can see it. There's so much going on at so many different levels that it's impossible to communicate it all to everyone. Perhaps if people see and feel good about what's going on in their own communities, they'll have more confidence that this is working well everywhere.

[sandersadu]

58. Hey

Beaconness. It sounds like you're my soror. Omega Psi Phi, Sp. 92!


S

[beaconess]

59. No - not Greek

My brother's a Q, though. Does that count?

[qwlauren35]

53. Yup...

T.D. Jakes - Lawdamercy, he would be able to motivate folks to participate in the campaign!

The National PanHell Council has been very active all year with voter registration/voter mobilization. The A-Phi-A's have been extremely active from what I've heard, and the Q's have also been very active. There's a 527 called Unity '04 which is attempting to mobilize all of the various black organizations under a single umbrella. http://www.bigvote.org/unity04/campaign/index.htm

When I saw this, I found myself wondering if several organizations have decided NOT to go partisan. I'm not sure, but this is possible. For example, I would have liked to have seen some of the heads of the Greek organizations endorse Kerry... they have not, or at least not to my knowledge.

So, perhaps Kerry hasn't called on them because they haven't endorsed him... and perhaps they haven't endorsed him because his campaign staff didn't realize that they needed to ask!!!

If that last point is true, it's just downright embarrassing... It's another thing that the Dean camp figured out. The Dean campaign hunted down endorsements like nobody's business! Notice, it didn't win the primary, but it got attention. I wonder if Kerry decided not to go that route on purpose... or something else.

But I don't think it's too late. I think he could get the endorsements if he worked at it.

Getting Jesse Jackson on board... um, doesn't impress me.

[Onlooker]

29. Does anyone here live in a black community?

If so, how does this election compare with others? Do you think there's a lot of motivation?

[clintonlover]

30. Hell YEA!!!!

[qwlauren35]

37. I know many folks in the black community here in Greensboro.

The older folks are very discouraged. They don't think we can win.

I've definitely seen a LOT of people who despise Bush. But I've also come across people who say that their vote doesn't matter, that Bush will steal the election again, or that it just doesn't make a difference, both candidates suck.

I also run into people who feel helpless. Some don't know what to do, and others are so overwhelmed with life that they don't have time to campaign.

So, that's what I'm seeing.

People are motivated to vote... but a lot of folks can't seem to get more active than that.

[roseBudd]

49. You are right about the disillusionment

We do have to keep their spirits up in light of the polls. I tell everyone the polls are bullshit cuz they are not calling cellphones or counting the newly registered voters which ar 75% democratic demo in states such as Ohio.

[HFishbine]

50. On Greensboro

Greensboro has some very well-liked and respected local officials who are Democrats. If they would publicly support Kerry (press release, speeches, letters to the editor), it would make a huge difference. So far, they've been silent. 90% of the city council and the mayor are Democrats, where are they?

If Kerry's going to win NC it's going to require higher than usual turnout in the three largest metrpolitan areas. I don't know why Greensboro's leading democrats are AWOL.

(on edit: The Mayor seemed happy enough to show up at the invitation-only Kerry campaign appearance, but that's it.)

[clintonlover]

38. Compared to other elections, this election is

extremely important as we all know. If Bush gets elected legitimately this time, then that will translate to Black Americans that his policy on being against affirmative action, for preemptive war,tax cuts for the rich is acceptable by most Americans.

[AnIndependentTexan]

33. I wouldn't worry

With what happen in Ohio and if they keep doing that then we will have a repeat of 20000. All Kerry has to do is speak out and say these people are trying to suppress you're ability to vote. They don't care about you and would rather see you used as puppets or tools for their own good. Look at all the hate my supporters have faced in this election. You two went through a period of hate and do you really want that uprise to happen again on a national level for just supporting what makes us Americans?

[beaconess]

48. It doesn't have to be Kerry himself saying it - he has so much on his

plate that he cannot possibly cover every issue every day.

That's why surrogates and ground operations are so important. In every state, Kerry-Edwards and the DNC have folks on the ground doing extensive field work, talking to voters, writing op-ed pieces, doing rapid response, etc. Everyone has to pitch in!

[AnIndependentTexan]

60. Including DU'ERS as well

[roseBudd]

39. I canvass low income African americans everyday

and it is the economy.

I am using both the Draft Alert and the TWO-FACED graphic. African Americans and hip secular youth love it. If you are not glueing this graphic to metal utilty poles, bus stop shelters etc. start.

The purpose of the graphic is to fire up a whole bunch of haters. Bush is so bad for blacks that if Kerry was a slice of bologna he would be better.

Instead of saying Kerry needs to; you should be saying I am going to walk outside and talk to African Americans about this election. I do everyday and they really apreciate it. And yes I am white, but it does not matter. Just show them the TWO-FACED graphic and see how they open up.

Go to http://somanmblst.tripod.com to download flyer files to print.

[HFishbine]

51. Rosebud

Your Tripod page isn't working.

[roseBudd]

57. I screwed up the URL when I typed it

http://somnamblst.tripod.com

[roseBudd]

56. oops typo in URL

http://somnamblst.tripod.com for flyers to print

[West Coast Democrat]

43. If I answered a poll saying I was an evangelical Xtian voting for Kerry...

I could single-handedly swing the poll.

[demwing]

44. Your Source is PEW Research

go to http://people-press.org

PEW is the group that presented research that claimed there was a liberal bias in the media.

Ignore this research.

[SoCalDemocrat]

47. I question those results

Where were the polls taken? We don't know. They polled 1900 some odd persons. How many were black and where were the polled? It says randomly selected continental U.S. numbers, but that doesn't tell us anything.

Out of 1580 surveyed, 131 were black, and 86 were hispanic. That means roughly 14% of those surveyed were part of those two ethnic groups. 8% of those surveyed were black, while 12.3% of the U.S. population is black.

Combined the Black and Hispanic population makes up 25% of the total population of the United States per the 2000 National Census. Both demographics are routinely under-represented by phone surveys, hispanics especially so.

Given such a small sample size of 131 black voters, I don't believe we can draw very accurate conclusions. To draw such conclusions, I suggest that your sample size must be much larger to reduce the margin of error to acceptable levels.

To be effective, the black voter sample size would need to be at least 1500 individuals in order to draw realistic conclusions about national trends among black voters. A sample size of 130 is going to prove wildly innacurate for drawing such conclusions.

"For example, the well known national polls generally use samples of about 1,500 persons to reflect national attitudes and opinions. A sample of this size produces accurate estimates even for a country as large as the United States with a population of over 200 million."

This is typical of the misuse of surveys that is rampant during an election year. This survey can be used to speak in terms of overall voter preference for Bush vs. Kerry, but it cannot accurately reflect demographics with those sample numberes.

Don't believe these results. I certainly don't.

[Uzybone]

52. We can never rest on our laurels

and we need to keep working hard but your post is rubbish.

Blacks will vote 90-95% for Kerry. Anyone care to place a friendly wager?