Mason-Dixon: Bush Widens Lead in NC

[gdgibson]

Now that I've got your attention, help me figure out if there are any questions we can raise about the poll's methodology.

First, though, the numbers (RV):

Sample size: 625 MoE: +/- 4%

Dates: Sept. 26-28 (7/04)

Bush: 52 (48) Kerry: 43 (45) Other: 1 (-) Undecided: 4 (7)

I don't have internals yet, but here's their methodology:

"Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter turn-out by county."

This is part of a recent group of swing state polls that Mason-Dixon claims shows Kerry losing ground to Bush. I wouldn't spend this kind of time on it, but our local paper (Asheville) put the 14-point lead this poll showed for Bush in Western NC on their front page, under the headline "President Widens Lead in WNC." They're very rah-rah Bush: after the GOP convention they ran a story which stated as fact some amazing things, including "He was the resolute president who unified the country after 9/11." (I'm paraphrasing, but that was the gist of it.)

One gem from the present article: they quote someone from Mason-Dixon saying, "Kerry's national campaign failures have likely taken North Carolina out of play."

I'm interested in what folks have to say about M-D specifically: what's their track record? Do they tend to lean one way or the other? How have they been seeing the race in comparison to other polling organiztions?

The bottom line: I believe our local editor is trying to demoralize the Democrats here, and I'm guessing that it's less about helping Bush win than about defeating Patsy Keever. Anything we can do to debunk the paper of record in the land that invented bunkum would be welcome.

Link to article (sorry I don't have the formats down yet): http://www.citizen-times.com/cache/article/news/62415.shtml

Link to Raleigh TV station site with details on the poll: http://www.wral.com/news/3770693/detail.html

Link to background on poll:
http://www.wral.com/news/3770765/detail.html

[Supersedeas]

1. NC may surprise some people