When I refigure the Gallup poll #s like 2000, It's Kerry 53%, Bush 46%

[Dems Will Win]

The Sept 24-26 poll had 43% R, 31% D and 25% I and had Bush out in front of Kerry 52-44% in LV.

BUT! If you have the 2000 numbers of the actual election, it was 39 D, 34 R and 26% I.

Even without figuring in extra DEm turnout and new registration as we already know will occur, and figuring Gallup is getting 9 points of the 25%INdependents going for Bush and 12 points going to Kerry, and simply figuring Repubs and Dems switching will cancel each other out, with the 2000 weighting, Kerry is ahead of Bush right now with at least 51% to 52% of the vote, and likely more with new young and Hispanic registers and more Republican switching.

Figuring Kerry will get 2 out 3 undecideds (there were 3 points):

14 points I + 39 points D = 53% Kerry
12 points I + 34 points R = 46% Bush

This is why they are giving the Repubs a 12 point advantage over Dems in their polling when it should be MINUS 5%.

Anybody have another calculation??

This is wire fraud, if you ask me, because they are knowingly broadcasting false information to influence an election.

[DU9598]

1. Interesting

I am intrigued by your legal theory. There may be some racketeering going on here. I think the Kerry legal team should be investigating and filing suit on this. There is definitely some fraudulent misrepresentation going on.

[sjr5740]

2. Look at Pollkatz

www.pollkatz.homestead.com

He has similar results by taking into account the weighting of the last 3 or 4 elections.

He also shows kerry ahead in the electoral college, although I find his electroal map suspect b/c he has Kerry winning WV, AR, MO but not NH. I think Kerry is more likely to win NH than any of the others.

SJR

[tritsofme]

3. I have RV reweighted at Bush 48.93% Kerry 47.21%

This is the partisian breakdown of RVs.

KE BC
R6% 93%
I46% 48%
D85% 10

Assuming D39% R35% I26%

[baldguy]

4. The news media doesn't know how to read or present polls.

All the polls show that this election is tied. If Gallup shows bush in front 49-44% that doesn't take into account the margin of error, which is typically ~4 points. That means bush's margin is actually from 54-45%, and Kerry's is from 48-40% There's an overlap of 3 points, which means IT'S A TIE!

PLUS Gallup admits it polls GOPers between 8 and 14 points more than Democrats.

PLUS the polls can change up to 5 points each day.

So, the margin of error is +/- 4 points, that's 8,
The bias inherent in the polls is from 8 to 14 points,
And the polls can change +/- 5 points each day

8+14+5= 27

Unless theres a 20-27 point difference in the poll numbers, then its meaningless.

[HFishbine]

5. I did a similar analysis yeterday

The current USA Today/CNN Poll (conducted by Gallop) has Bush winning 52% to 44%.

But the poll over-samples Republicans by 23% and under-samples Democrats by 21% compared to 2000 voter turnout. If, as in 2000, 91% of Republicans are voting for Bush and 86% of Democrats are voting for their nominee, then we can reduce Bush's total percentage by 21% and increase Kerry's by 18%.

THE RESULTS BALANCED TO 2000 TURNOUT:

Bush: 41.1%
Kerry: 51.9%

[Dems Will Win]

6. I advanced it to distribute the undecided

But this is essentially correct.

[HFishbine]

7. I left undecideds as a wash

since they went 45% Gore/47% Bush in 2000. I figured Nader's 6% of independents in 2000 would give up a couple points towards the Dem this year.

[Dems Will Win]

8. definitely on Nader

But even the Gallup poll had the 25% Indies breaking 12-9 for Kerry this time, and since young people no longer have land phone lines, it's probably closer to 2 to 1 by election day and after the debates.