9/30 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 304 EV, 94% PROB, 51.1%POP. VOTE.

[TruthIsAll]

How is that, Truth? All the polls say...
Not all the polls, just the whore polls

The Election Model has Kerry slightly ahead in the weighted popular vote 46%-45.5% (derived from reputable state polls).

But Gallup has Bush way ahead...
They had him way ahead of Gore, also..
Kerry is ahead in the big ticket states, Bush is way ahead in the small ones.

But Bush has the debate rules in his favor...
True, but he still must open his mouth. And you know what happens when he does that.

So how does Kerry win?
The Incumbent Rule: Kerry will beat Bush like a drum when he gets the majority of the undecided/other vote (at least 8%).
If he gets 60% of undecided/others, the model projects him at 51%.

That's how he wins.

Excuse me while I go out for some popcorn.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[mckara]

1. I Look Forward To Your Posts...

but I must admit most of the analysis. Could you make a list of polls you don't trust and which you feel are accurate? If it's not too much trouble.

[mckara]

2. Oops!

Most of the analysis is over my head

[TruthIsAll]

4. Trust the Independents, toss the corporate media whores.

Check out the the Independent Group in the Model: ARG, Zogby, Pew, IBD/CSM, Harris, ICR, The Economist, Quinnipac, Democratic Corp (Carville, Greenberg). They have the race tied.

The media pollsters (Gallup, Time, etc.) have Bush ahead by 5-10.
Go figure.

[AndyTiedye]

3. How Does He do With 33-50% of the Undecideds (but lots of New Voters)

That seems far more likely, historical statistics notwithstanding.
Kerry simply has no way to reach most undecided voters, so most of
them will probably stay home or vote for Boosh.

We are registering so many new voters that we should still be
able to win.

[TruthIsAll]

5. Sorry Andy, I only show it for 50%. You are blowing smoke

if you think Bush will get more undecided than Kerry.
Why do you insist on believing this?

I rely on proven historical data and many experts (Charley Cooke, etc.) agree. The challenger is in the drivers seat. I have said this before and I will say it again one last time.

Anyone who is undecided must not want Bush, otherwise they would be for him after knowing him for four years. The undecided want Kerry to sell them.

He will tonight.

[VOX]

6. Truth, your posts are like finding cold iced tea in the Mojave!

Your numbers and analytical "crunching" are much appreciated! :toast:

[Kathleen04]

7. Great site

I hope you're right.

[TruthIsAll]

8. I retain prior reputable polls rather than use the latest from..

Bush-leaning pollsters..(see Electoral-vote.com).

On the right are the latest ARG polls, which I did not replace
with the polls on the left in today's run.

I use my discretion. There is no way that Bush is leading
Kerry 49-42 in WI or WV.

Take a look.


CO Survey USA 44-52 ....45-46
FL Gallup 44-49... 46-45
ME Survey USA 45-48...48-44
MD Rasmussen 48-45....52-43
NM Mason Dixon 43-47....49-44
WA Strategic Vision 46-45....51-44
WV Gallup 42-49......46-46
WI Strategic Vision 42-49...46-46

I use my discretion and will not blindly post a bogus poll.

[strategery blunder]

9. What is a Monte Carlo simulation?

Sometimes you refer to these in your posts but they are WAY over my 19-year old, math-hating head.:shrug:

[Wapsie B]

10. TruthIsAll, I really enjoy

your posts. Keep it up! Thank you for your contributions to this boards.