Could Bean Flip in a Closely Divided Congress?

[tritsofme]

I'm normally one of the first people to defend Melissa Bean from attacks on the left, but this made me cringe.

I heard a radio program this evening that was interviewing McSweeney and the subject came up that Bean has not totally ruled out supporting Hastert for Speaker in a closely divided Congress.

The pundits spent several minutes talking about this.

Has anyone else heard this, or were they just making it up?

[tofubo]

1. she already has flipped

what would you call someone who takes your democratic campaign donations and spends them w/the likes of these two companies

http://www.mydd.com/images/user/217/Main.txt

$260,000 w/Arena Communications for mailing lists

"Arena Communications: By Republicans, for Republicans"

and

$11,000 for ad buys from a media consulting firm that was paid $276,000 for the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth swift-boating campaign and works almost exclusily w/republican candidates

Stevens Reed Curcio & Potholm

but keep lying to yourself that she is a dem....

[tritsofme]

2. If she can win in the district that voted 57% for Bush in 2004

and still vote Pelosi for Speaker, that's fine with me.

If she seriously entertains the idea of flipping to Republican, that's when I start to get worried.

[alusmotdnabed]

6. Look a little more closely

Bean did not PAY Arena Communications or Stevens Reed ANYTHING. They were paid for stuff that's being done to OPPOSE her. The GOP has spent over a million dollars attacking her and trying to defeat her. Because -- after all -- when someone's just another rubber stamp for your agenda, you waste that much money trying to get rid of them.

[FrancesPete]

3. I wouldn't be surprised if several flip

I wouldn't be surprised if several moderate Illinois Democrats in Congress flip over the Speaker issue. Many of them see personal benefit to their districts with the Speaker being from Illinois.

[tofubo]

4. ....benefit to their districts with the Speaker being from Illinois.

ya mean, this guy ??

from this article ??

[dogfacedboy]

5. Bean represents a district where even most Dems are conservative.

She may never put an "R" behind her name, but her voting habits won't change. She is from the right-wing within the Dems.

[tofubo]

7. enabling acts circa 2006

http://www.standeyo.com/NEWS/06_USA/061031.Bush.martial.law.html

she voted for both, i cannot put party before country
i will not be a 'good american', no one who voted for these should be reelected

[KharmaTrain]

8. Bean Was Allowed To "Vote Her Conscious"

She's been targeted by the GOOP from the moment she won the seat. There were several votes, including the bankruptcy bill, that were landmines Hastert and others were hoping she'd step into to give McSweeney some major ammo. It didn't happen and in the big picture her vote wasn't the deciding one on any of these votes. A year ago, many didn't give her a chance of being re-elected, now she could walk away with a bigger win tomorrow than she did in '04.

I'm not a Bean appologist but know folks in the campaign...and as someone else on this thread stated, a vote for Bean is a vote for Pelosi. This is the only thing McSweeney has ever said to be true...and to that the alternative to Bean...a true booosh-bot rubber stamp who will ignore this district just like Phil Crane did. Many here are just glad to have a sober representative.

About the "importance" of keeping the Speaker from Illiois...gotta love that talking point. Sorry, Gym Teach Denny hasn't brought home the bacon to the 8th district. There are some Repugnicans in this area who are pissed with Hastert cause he ignored Crane and never gave him a chairmanship or any power that someone who had 30 plus years of seniority "deserved".

One last dynamic that's happening in some of these areas is the fracturing of the local Repugnican parties. A nasty primary battle in the 8th left a lot of bad blood. In my area, it literally split the party in three...with the "regulars" sticking with McSweeney and the far right probably sitting out (they supported another candidate in the primary and are acolyltes of Steve Rauschenberger)...the third segement is the most interesting. These are former Repugnicans who jumped ship and are now Democrats. For the first time in my 25 years in this area, Democrats are not only competitive in the state House & Senate races but stand good chances of winning. Change is happening in the 8th, but it's still going to be a purple district unless the General Assembly decides to re-appropriate districts following the election and redraw the lines to make it easier for Democrats to either win or hold seats in these areas.

It's easy for someone sitting in a solidly blue area or district and see Bean's votes and hop up and down without understanding how far this district has come in the past 6 years. In 2000, Crane won with over 60% of the vote (even after his alcoholism became known), then barely over 50% in '02, then lost in '04 (the only Democratic seat gain of the night)...now a Democrat could win 55% or more of the vote. That's a major shift and sign of things to come.

I'm far from being an appologist for Bean and had supported Bill Scheuer in the primaries (I'm still tempted to vote for him in the general...his name is on the ballot)...and while he'd be a better choice than Bean, he would get his ass handed to him in a one-on-one with the Repugnican machine Hastert put in this area to beat Bean and Duckworth.

Today, my phone was constantly slammed by GOOP robo-calls (I'm hoping there's a class action suit as these were "Do Not Call" numbers they were slamming) ranging from Mike Ditka to Rudy Guiliani to Pickles all pleading to vote for McSweeney. On my front step this morning, the Daily Herald (which endorsed Bean) had an add for McSweeney on the outer plastic wrap sponsored by the NRA. They sure wouldn't be spending all that coin on someone who they considered a "sure vote".

If Democrats win control of the House, they also win control of the agenda...which bills are moved to the floor to vote and won't set up the "gotcha" votes that Bean had to tap dance around. I personally asked Bean not long ago about her vote for Pelosi and I was assured that "my life would be a lot easier if Nancy were speaker"...that sure doesn't sound like a vote for Gym Teach Denny. No, she's not a liberal or Progressive, never was...but compared to a McSweeney, you tell me who you'd prefer be voting for the next Speaker?

[Norquist Nemesis]

9. It's called flinging $#@% to see what sticks

First, they tried to paint her as one of those gawdawful Liberals supporting San Francisco values. It didn't work. She put up ads saying she's "independent minded" to combat the scary Liberal tactic. And the "maybe she'll flip!?!" is just another means of them trying to bloody her nose.