Poll: Presidential race still tight

[Freddie Stubbs]

Associated Press


President Bush and his Democratic rival, U.S. Sen. John Kerry, remain locked in a close race in Michigan, a new poll shows.

Forty-seven percent of the 600 likely Michigan voters polled by Lansing-based EPIC/MRA said they'd vote for Kerry if the election was held today, while 45 percent backed Bush, with 8 percent undecided. The numbers are identical to a late March poll conducted by EPIC/MRA.

With independent Ralph Nader in the race, Kerry was supported by 45 percent, Bush by 43 percent, with 3 percent going to Nader and 9 percent undecided.

The latest survey, released Tuesday, was conducted last Wednesday through Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

more: http://www.lsj.com/news/local/040609_bush_poll_2b.html

[Lefty48197]

1. This is pretty good news for Kerry

since "undecided" voters usually trend towards the challenger at about a 2 to 1 rate, this could translate into a pretty solid lead for Kerry.

[Freddie Stubbs]

2. Not necessarily

You are correct that undecided voters tend to vote for the challenger rather than the incumbent. But many undecided voters don't bother to vote at all.

[Lefty48197]

3. Word is that Bush has given up on Michigan

inspite of all the money he's wasting here, his campaign, and other right wingers are beginning to conclude that Bush has no chance of winning Michigan. They are exploring their continually shrinking set electoral possibilities in a desperate attempt to continue their occupation of the White House, and Michigan just doesn't fit into their plans.
I think the real war is going to be in Ohio. Who would have guessed, just a few short months ago, that OHIO was going to be in play?? That's GREAT news for us Democrats. It's pretty much universally accepted, that if Ohio votes for the Democrat, then America votes for the Democrat. The corollary to that theory is that if Ohio is in play, then Michigan is a lock for the Democrats.