Bush opens narrow lead in MN

[Freddie Stubbs]

With margin so thin, Kerry race a tossup

BY BILL SALISBURY

Pioneer Press


As President Bush launches a three-city bus trip across Minnesota today, a new poll shows that for the first time he has a lead — albeit a narrow one — over Democratic challenger John Kerry in the state.

The Pioneer Press/Minnesota Public Radio poll, conducted Sept. 11 through 14, shows 46 percent of Minnesota voters would now vote for Bush, while 44 percent support Kerry. Since the president's lead is within the poll's margin of error of 4 percent, that makes the race here a tossup.

Only 1 percent of the respondents favor independent candidate Ralph Nader, and 9 percent are undecided.

While Bush's support has increased by 1 percentage point since the last Pioneer Press/MPR poll in July, Kerry has dropped 4 percentage points.

more: http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/news/politics/9674445.htm

[rockymountaindem]

1. Yesterday there was a poll that had Kerry up 50-44 in Minnesota.

That was ARG, I believe, which is probably more credible than a radio poll.

[Freddie Stubbs]

3. It wasn't a 'radio poll'

This poll of Minnesota voters was conducted for the St. Paul Pioneer Press and Minnesota Public Radio on Sept. 11 through 14. The polling was done by telephone by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C.

The survey included 625 voters in Minnesota chosen through a random selection of telephone numbers.

In theory, 19 times out of 20, a sampling of that size should yield results differing by no more than 4 percentage points in either direction from the responses that would be received by polling the entire population.

The error margin is greater for smaller groups. Errors also can be introduced by the wording of questions and other factors.

http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/news/politics/9674445.htm

[no name no slogan]

10. comparing apples to oranges

The Strib poll (showing Kerry up by 9%) sampled likely voters, while the Mason-Dixon poll only sampled registered voters.

MN has very liberal voting laws. You can register to vote on election day here-- and you don't need a picture ID to do so, either. In fact, you can vote in MN if you've lived here for two months, and a registered voter from your precinct can vouch for your identity and residency. Consequently, we had the highest voter turnout of any state in 2000, with 70% voting.

IMO, that puts the Strib poll on better footing. It is VERY easy for "likely" voters to vote here, even if they're not registered to vote.

Based on my own anecdotal evidence (my daily commute between downtown Minneapolis and downtown St. Paul every day), I've seen at least four times as many Kerry bumper stickers than Dubya ones. I've even seen Kerry lawn signs in the outer-ring 'burbs, too, which is traditionally very Republican.

If I were a gambling man, I'd still say Kerry wins MN by at least 5%. Although Nader's on the ballot, he's polling around 1% right now, and will be a non-factor. The MN Greens aren't backing him (they're with Cobb), and he has little traction or popular support in the state.

MN will stay blue this year, just like it has since 1976.

[ButterflyBlood]

19. no offense but

downtown Minneapolis and downtown St. Paul aren't exactly the most politically split parts of the state. I'd be shocked if I saw half as much Republican signs in that area.

[no name no slogan]

21. It's not just DT Traffic-- most is from west burbs

Most of the traffic I see is from the western burbs to St. Paul, not just from the downtowns. I get on at I-394 about a mile west of DT Minneapolis, right behind traffic coming in from Minnetonka and Plymouth. And on the cars that have presidential bumperstickers, almost all of them have been for Kerry.

Same goes coming home from the eastern edge of DT St. Paul (7th St & I-94, past I-35W, past DT Minneapolis and out I-394. And again, almost no Dubya stickers-- most of them Kerry/Edwards.

True, Mpls and St. Paul will definately go for Kerry, but I'm in traffic that's coming from all parts of town-- not just the big cities. And I still firmly believe that Kerry will win MN by at least 5%, if not more. :)

[USA_1]

22. bumper stickers and lawn signs

Everywhere you go throughout St Paul all you is is Kerry-Edwards signs. I understand that it's that way in Minneapolis as well.

Combined, the population of both cities is over six hundred thousand or roughly one-sixth of the state's total population. With this huge margin in the Democrats' favor, it is very difficult to believe that Bush can have any form of lead as has been reported by those phonies in the Pioneer Press.

[ButterflyBlood]

23. actually the state's population is around 5 million

so it's a little under an eigth. the problem is sometimes the suburbs can outvote the cities, this is what got us stuck with Norm the Weasel.

That said, I still think Kerry will have little trouble winning Minnesota.

[9119495]

2. Get to the campuses and register the newbies and MN is ours!

[DFLforever]

4. This is a bunch of BS

The MN Repukes have been putting pressure on to get poll results they want here, viz their flair up with the Star Tribune, whose poll is the most respected in the area with a 50 yr track record. They had Kerry up 50 to 41 for Bush.

Theses poll results are part of the Bush campaign strategy to create the appearance of a movement of support to Bush. I think most of it is crap...dangerous crap. With these anti-democrats, the goal is to manipulate votes, not win them.


This is why Kerry has to fund the grassroots efforts better in this state, stop rationing lawn signs, etc.

[Krupskaya]

5. What's up with the lawn signs?

We got two 4'x8's from a friend of ours, but he also said he finally got fed up and went out and ordered his own freaking signs. (2'x3')

[DFLforever]

6. I'm not sure

I heard from a friend who is a precinct capt in So. St Paul that she was able to get only 3 for her precinct, and they were going to limit her to ONE sign until she got an official to intervene!!! This happened at the Kerry headquarters on Univ. in St Paul

STUPID! STUPID! STUPID! is all I can say.

My guess - saving money for TV and other media buys.

But Kerry's going to have to undercut the media to win this election!

[goodhue]

7. Very hard to get free lawn signs in south Minneapolis.

They are rationed severely. Apparently, resources directed elsewhere. Some folks resort to purchase signs at $10 a piece.
We need huge turn out in these heavy DFL areas, so sign shortage seems ill advised IMHO.

[c0lin]

8. Same here..

in Mankato it's pretty hard from what I've heard - which is sad because I see about 100 times more Kerry b-stickers than I do bush, but a 10 to 1 ratio in bushes favor for yard signs. Including a huge one right off campus ;<[br />
meh

[no name no slogan]

11. In my heavily Democratic S. Mpls 'hood

I've only seen THREE Kerry signs-- which is exactly the same number of Kucinich signs I saw before the caucus. However, there's lots of bumper stickers, so that makes up part of it.

You're absolutely right about GOTV in Mpls/StP. We need the core cities to get to the polls to offset the big #s in the suburbs.

[bucknaked]

9. Sounds like more of the Pioneer Press' trying harder to be the anti-Strib.

I'm sure the results came out the way they reported, but it would be interesting to compare methodology between their's and the Star Tribune's. Given Nader's showing here in 2000, even as polarized as this race is, 1 percent is hard to believe from MN voters.

I won't accuse them of trying to skew the poll, but I am betting that the expected praise from Ron Ebenwhiner will give them (the Pioneer Press) a boost among his party faithful.

[no name no slogan]

12. They polled different demographics (see post #10)

The Strib polled LIKELY voters
The PiPress polled REGISTERED voters

Since the incumbent is a Repub, "likely" voters will tend to lean Democratic. And since it's very easy to vote here, I'm guessing we'll see a Dem victory.

[loveable liberal]

13. any poll associated with the pioneer press is crap.

The editors of this fishwrapper are almost as bad as the washington times or whatever the name of that moonie paper is. Kerry will "carry" minnesota. We are thinkers here.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

14. The key will be turnout in the cities and the Iron Range

and a whopping blizzard with six-foot drifts in the areas that lean Republican. :-)

(The city folks can always walk to the polls, and the Iron Rangers are too tough to let a little blizzard stop them.)

Hey, it will be November, so it could happen! (Wasn't there a massive blizzard on Halloween a few years ago?)

[GAspnes]

15. Alexandria / Glenwood

I drove to Glenwood via Alexandria yesterday for a job interview. I saw roughly 20 signs, all Busy/Cheney. Didn't see any Kerry/Edwards signs or bumper stickers.

How's that for an unscientific survey?

[ButterflyBlood]

20. that's no suprise

that area is EXTREMELY Repuke.

[suegeo]

16. If you want to feel uncomfortable...

If you want to feel uncomfortable, go behind the cheddar curtain...

I drove to Chicago today, and just beyond the border with the metro area, I saw many billboards for "Bush Country" and Bush/Cheney bumper stickers. The signs and stickers out numbered Kerry about 3 to 1, from the border to Eau Claire.

Many of the Chimp/snarl signs were hand painted.

One sign was particularly nauseating: "We support President Bush", with 3 flags handing by its side. Of course, I was listening to a rightwing nutjob fest on AM 1500 at the time, where 2 Chimp campaign workers were saying how the 72 hour Republican response team worked so well to put Norm Coleman into office after paul wellstone's "accident." Also, the chimp campaign workers were worried about voter fraud. Oy vey.

After Eau Claire, there was nothing. No Kerry. No Bush, until I saw a car with fighting bob and a kerry sticker near Madison.

I got a bad feeling about this election and the hard right turn this country has taken since the coup of 2000 and the Reichstag fire on 9.11.

The worst part of it is, if Kerry wins, I really think the rightwing really goes ballistic, more so than now.

If Bush wins the world goes up even further into flames.

Scared.

[Berserker]

17. I was wondering

myself about that huge sign just east of Hudson along 94. Is it legal for that piece of shit repuke to put a sign along and interstate saying "We support President Bush"? And he had the balls to put our flags on top of it. It makes me sick to see it.:puke:

[suegeo]

18. Are the flags lit at night?

Proper flag handling requires flags to be taken down at night, or to be properly lit.