Where'e Aronsohn?

[ramapo]

I'm one of the unfortunate who have Garrett as their "representative". Anne Wolfe ran a strong campaign in '04 but inexplicably didn't get support from the DCCC for '06. I think, with financial backing, that she would've had a good chance in '06 and was sorry to see her withdraw.

Except for some signs along the highway, I've seen and heard little from Aronsohn. Maybe he has a stealth strategy or is just making the rounds of bluer communities than mine.

Unles voters are disgusted enough to just toss out our incumbent on general principles, which I kind of doubt, I have the sinking feeling that our district will continue to be represented by somebody who is better suited for an Idaho CD than NJ.

[Kire]

1. Nowhere

That's where.

Anne Wolfe actually had supporters that got her name out there for her. Aronsohn's got drive by Washington fundraisers.

[Jersey Ginny]

12. It is my understanding that Anne backed out for family reasons

I was told that a loved one has alzheimers and this was understandably taking a lot of time and energy. As this was 2nd hand info, it might be wrong.

[FogerRox]

2. Anne Wolfe withdrew in deference to Linda Stender

Anne thought that 2 women from the same state, would split the national support. Plus Anne thought the 5th was tuffer this year. A recent poll show Paul is down at 33% to 49%.

http://www.nytimes.com/cq/2006/10/10/cq_1600.html

Anne got 42% in 2004, so Paul is going backwards. All the while our 3 DFA candidates (Carol Gay in the 4th & Tom Wyka in the 11th)are out performing previous DEM efforts by 10%, Linda is of cource looking to win in the 7th.

My take is that the Aronsohn campaign sucks. They pissed off DFA, they are not running a true grassroots campaign, and are perhaps relying on the so called consultants. Paul is down 17pts, underperfomring Anne Wolfe's 2004 effort by 9pts.

NJ4-2004- DEM challenger got 33%, expect Carol Gay to break into the forties.
NJ11-2004- DEM challenger got 31%, expect Tom Wyka to also break into the forties.
NJ7- I dont have these numbers- they should be similar to the 4th,7th,5th & 11th. Obviously Linda is within the Margin of Error, trending up for months, looks to win by 3%-5%.

We will see how the numbers are on election night, it may be that DFA will look like a rose, picking the 3 races that were winnable in 2006. If Wyka & Gay break into the mid forties, it suggests that these 2 incumbant rpeublicans were vulnerable in 2006.

[ramapo]

3. Finally a direct mail piece

Seven days before the election I finally got an Aronsohn fund raising/volunteer appeal. Just a bit late unless I send it out today and I'm not sure it'd be money well-spent at this point.

There was also a pretty good piece included outlining how out-of-step Garrett is with the concerns of NJ residents.

I hope that at least the info piece went to all voters. I suspect my letter came because I was a Wolfe/Demo donor last time around.

[brentspeak]

4. Significant lack of visibility by the candidate

I don't know if it's few advertising dollars or just political inexperience, but Aronsohn has not made himself well known during this campaign. Garrett is vulnerable in this moderate district if only the majority of people here were made more aware of his far-right positions. Because he keeps a low profile, most residents are under the mistaken impression that he's similar to Marge Roukema.

[NJ Democrats]

5. He was on the Colbert Report a few weeks ago

[ramapo]

6. That was pretty much the last I heard of him

Colbert was fine...not enough in the 5th CD watch though. Oh well...

[FogerRox]

7. Sorry to those in the 5th, but I think Carol Gay & Tom Wyka

will raise 100k between the 2, and they will out perform Aronsohn.

[Kire]

8. Aronsohn/Garrett Radio Debate Tomorrow, Friday Nov. 3

After more than two months of ducking debates, Republican Scott Garrett will finally debate Democrat Paul Aronsohn

1510 AM can be heard in Hackettstwon and the Surrounding areas, or you can listen online here:
http://www.oldies1510.com/streaming.htm

Democrats will meet at the Park and Ride across the Street from the Radio station on Route 46 at 10:25 AM to "greet" the candidates as they drive in to the station.
Where:
100 Route 46 West
Hackettstown, NJ
07840
When: 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM

[ramapo]

9. Primetime

I'm sure hundreds will be listening.

Garrett has sent a couple of direct mail pieces painting Aronsohn as part of the McGreevey/Cipel/Aronsohn triangle and highlighting the goodness he has done for the CD.

[Kire]

10. Live Bloogging Here

http://www.bluejersey.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3082

Also, there will be an archive up soon so you can listen to the whole debate: http://www.oldies1510.com/remotes.htm#politics

[Kire]

11. Blogging

:silly: