Philly House Race Among Tightest in Nation

[Freddie Stubbs]

Monday, June 28, 2004
By Kelley Beaucar Vlahos

WASHINGTON — It is certain that the 13th District in Pennsylvania will be electing a woman to Congress this November. The only thing up in the air is who that woman will be.

The Philadelphia-area race between Democratic state Sen. Allyson Schwartz (search) and Republican doctor Melissa Brown (search) is proving to be one of the tightest and possibly most expensive House races in the country.

"This race is not going to sneak up on anybody — it is going to be very competitive," said Nathan Gonzales, analyst for The Rothenberg Report, a political campaign handicapper.

Current 13th District Rep. Joseph Hoeffel (search), a Democrat, is challenging longtime GOP Sen. Arlen Specter (search) in November, leaving his current seat wide open to both parties.

more: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,123876,00.html

[IrishDemocrat]

1. Hello. I've been looking for PA-13

I'm from Northeast Philadelphia and reside in the district. I'm surprised no one has talked about this race for it could be an upset in the Republican column. I do not mean to be so pessimistic, but Melissa Brown has virtually wrapped up every FOP endorsement which went Hoeffel in 2002. That pesky Section 8 issue is coming back to damper Allyson Schwartz again and despite the fact Kerry should do very well here, it may not translate for Allyson Schwartz. In 2002, Ed Rendel came out of the 13th with a 2 to 1 margin yet Hoeffel almost lost. I would like to think this was because of a good tide because of the Republican party in the post-9/11 era, but reading some Northeast Times letters, I have my doubts. Some people in this district are firmly against Section 8 housing and will vote Brown solely on that issue.

I want a Kerry/Hoeffel/Schwartz victory in November and an EAGLES one in January!!!!

[Freddie Stubbs]

2. The story behind the 13th

Back in 2001 the GOP controlled state legislature redrew the lines for congressional districts. They merged Hoeffel's Montgomery County district with Bob Borski's Philadelphia district. Although a majority of the voters in this new district live in MontCo, a majority of the Democratic primary voters lived in Philly. The idea was that Borski would win the primary, but would lose the general election as suburban voters would rather be represented by someone who was from their area.

Fortunately Borski decided to retire and Hoeffel managed to win by about 8000 votes (which is a fairly close margin).

I agree with you that Schwartz has an uphill battle. Although most of the voters in the Philly part of the district are Democrats, they are moderate to socially conservative whites who have the potential to vote Republican. A moderate Democrat may have been able to hold this seat, but I don't think that a liberal like Schwartz will be able to.

[IrishDemocrat]

3. Other factors

In my opinion, Schwartz may have the advantage because of the disenchantment of the Bush Administration plus Schwartz is well financed to spin Brown's garbage out. True, Brown has the early edge because fo Section 8 housing among conservative Dems in Northeast Philadelphia, but Brown has a recent history of lying and changing postions. One example is the privatization of SS. She's telling NE Philly, she is against it, but wealthy donors she supports Bush's reforms. Had this matchup been in the 1990s, 2000 or 2002, Game Over for Schwartz- Brown wins. I just think the anti-Republican tide is too great.

[newyawker99]

4. Hi IrishDemocrat!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Ramsey]

5. Schwartz has a major GOTV machine

Allyson has her own staff and a massive number of Emily's List volunteers on the ground, and more are coming as it gets closer to the election. I've got one of them staying with me until November in fact. The GOTV campaign is targeted to the issues that the individual families care about. They are on the ground talking to tens of thousands of people multiple times.

And Philly area people who want to help can sign up at Allyson's website for events reminders, and can work on election day. The campaign was filming a whole new set of issues ads yesterday. I'm going to be in one about veteran's health care!

I will say though, Ed Rendell should be doing more campaigning for Allyson, and Kerry for that matter. Yesterday I got a letter from Rendell asking for money for some guy I've never even heard of, yet nothing from him about Allyson.

Allyson is a terrific candidate. She's smart, experienced and genuine. We need to make sure she wins!

http://www.allysonschwartz.com/

[IrishDemocrat]

6. Re: Schwartz has a major GOTV machine

Hello Ramsey. Yeah I want to see Allyson Schwartz win as well. Melissa Brown is a deceptive, sneaky cuntrag. However, Melissa Brown has the FOP endorsements locked up districtwide and she hit a HUGE chord on Section 8 housing reform. I live in Northeast Philadelphia, I would know. While Allyson may have the money, Melissa Brown has the a good number of votes from conservative, Catholic neighbors of mine. Quite honestly, I don't share their zeal for social conservatism, but I can see some need for reform in Section 8 housing. I come from a churchgoing Irish Catholic family, but I have become thouroghly disgusted with the Archdiocese of Philadelphia for their blatent disregard for working families by raising tuitions on kids that go to their schools and endorsing asshole candidates such as Pat Toomey and Rick Santorum. I no longer go to Mass and quite honestly screw the Church! GO ALLYSON SCHWARTZ!! GO JOE HOEFFEL!! GO JOHN KERRY!!!

[IrishDemocrat]

7. SCHWARTZ UP 11 IN RECENT POLL!!!

Just released today in the Inquirer. Allyson Schwartz is up 45-34. Broken down it's 51-29 in the city and 42-36 in Montco.

[Joy Anne]

8. poll

Terrific! I'm campaigning for her chief of staff, Marilyn Zilli, who's running for the 87th state house district.

[DieboldMustDie]

9. I heard similar numbers in an NPR report about a week ago.

;)