Nueces county sheriff's race shake up?

[meg]

sera verdad of South Texas Chisme says Larry Olivarez may be changing his mind about running for county judge. Also, Rose Vela may be running for county judge.

[Czolgosz]

1. I thought Fil and Rose Vela moved away, no?

[Czolgosz]

2. If the Smaller-Times is to be believed, Rose is going to run against

Errlinda Castillo for the 13th Court of Appeals (not county judge):

"Watchers keep eyes open for Vela's plans
There's a big announcement coming from District Judge Rose Vela's court on January 2 that has judiciary watchers guessing.
There has been speculation that Vela will step down in early January and be replaced by Republican powerbroker and attorney Colleen McHugh, who was recently named to the University of Texas Board of Regents by Governor Rick Perry.
Vela wants to run for the 13th Court of Appeals, according to friends of Vela and her husband Filemon.
'Rose is not stepping down,' said George Finley, a close friend and political ally. 'She is seriously contemplating running for the appellate court. Although they consider themselves to be friends with Colleen, they have not had any conversations about Colleen getting the governor's appointment to take Rose's place.'"

Of course, if Rose steps down from her appointment (which she would not have to do so that would be an elective decision on her part), it could only be because she made a deal to give Perry an opportunity to appoint Colleen McHugh in exchange for . . . ? ? ? With that stain on her candidacy, assuming the Smaller-Times has that part of the story correct (never a completely safe bet), would Rose come in second or third in the Democratic primary?

Rose would stand a MUCH better chance running against Fred Hinojosa, whose judicial rulings have grown most anti-consumer of late, making him the least Democratic of all six judges on the court.

[TexasLinda]

3. Per nuecesdemocrats.org Gina Benavides has filed to

challenge Errlinda Castillo (http://nuecesdemocrats.org/2006Election.html) for Place 5 of the 13th Court of Appeals. Hinojosa doesn't have a challenger yet. And yes, if Vela chooses to step down so a Republican could be appointed to the 148th District Court, that would definitely be a stain on her candidacy.

[Czolgosz]

4. Benavides is a very good Democrat, and she called many people to get their

views before she announced. I am certain that she would have called Fil and Rose Vela to confirm that Rose wasn't running before Benavides announced her candidacy so I'd hate to believe that Vela would go back on any assurances she had previously given to Benavides. It seems like that would be an uncharacteristically ham-handed thing if Vela were going to jump into the Benavides-Castillo race. Banales tried this same play 5 years ago when Valdez ran for Chief Justice of the appeals court after Banales said he wasn't going to run and then Banales later changed his mind, but Valdez had already lined up much of the support (I suspect Vela's campaign would go the same way as Banales's unsuccessful run for Chief Justice if she jumped in against Benavides-Castillo).

In contrast, I think Vela would SLAUGHTER Hinojosa.

[TexasLinda]

5. I guess we'll know by 6PM Monday

The Nueces County Democratic Party(http://www.nuecesdemocrats.org) headquarters should be buzzing with activity Monday as candidates do their last-minute jockying for position.

In the County Chair race, the NCDP website(http://nuecesdemocrats.org/2006Election.html) shows two people have filed so far. South Texas Chisme (http://stxc.blogspot.com/) hints that another person is also expected to file.

[Czolgosz]

6. When I predicted Vela would slaughter Hinojosa, I assumed she would be

running as a Democrat. Her flipping to run as a Republican has me baffled. All bets are off as far as I'm concerned. Does anyone have a clue what Vela is playing at by running as a Republican?