Texas Tribune 1/21/10Ready to RunoffThe latest Rasmussen Reports numbers have Medina at 12%, Perry at 43%, and Hutchison at 33%. If Perry fails to get a majority of the vote in the primary — what current projections show happening — a runoff would occur between the top two finishers on April 13.
A look at historical election returns reveals what could be a boon to Hutchison: incumbents like Perry have bad luck in runoff contests. But University of Texas government professor David Prindle said there’s no real pattern as to how runoffs treat incumbent candidates, "It depends on how the supporters of the people who aren't in the runoff — who did vote in the primary and are going to vote in the runoff — break," he says.
(snip)
"Primaries are a small, by-invitation-only party," Blakemore said, adding that in a runoff, "The voters will be much more conservative, and much more inside baseball players."
Texas law allows anyone who hasn’t voted in another party’s primary to vote in the runoff, but that doesn't mean all those people will actually show up. Blakemore thinks they'll be pure Republicans.
"To the extent that you can say anybody who votes in a Republican primary is a casual voter, which you can't, the casual ones will be gone," Blakemore said, indicating that such a scenario favors Perry.
This is starting to sound like Perry will survive a runoff. I can't see many Democrats voting in the R primary, but I wonder if those who self identify as "Independents" will make a difference.
:shrug:
Sonia