Exit Poll Red Shift Geographical Map - using USCV's latest report

[dzika]

I wasn't sure if anyone had posted geographical red shift map using the numbers from the March 31, 2005 US Count Votes' Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Poll Discrepancies (PDF). Sorry if this is a dupe.



Full Map Here

Please let me know if there are any errors and I will attempt to correct it.

[smoogatz]

1. Could you explain it, please?

For those of us unfamiliar with the ramifications of "red shift"?

TIA

[dzika]

4. US Count Votes defines it this way

Btab = Bush tabulated votes
Ktab = Kerry tabulated votes
Bep = Bush exit poll
Kep = Kerry exit poll

Red Shift = ((Btab% - Bep%) + (Kep% - Ktab%))/2

Positive (red shift) - net movement toward Bush,
Negative (blue shift) - net movement toward Kerry

Using Florida (critical) as an example:
Exit Poll % : B=49.8% K=49.7%
Tab (99% precincts) B=52% K=47%
Red Shift: ((52% - 49.8%) + (49.7% - 47%))/2 = (2.2% + 2.7%)/2 = +2.5%

[smoogatz]

5. So, you'd expect any shift

to be within the margin of error (which is what--about 1.5%?) and more or less balanced from state to state, right? Not slanted so heavily toward Bush in the big swing states. Is that about right?

[dzika]

7. That is my understanding

but I'm not an expert. I just made the map based on USCV's calculations.

You can read the press release or executive summary (pdf) for the USCV report for more information.

[Nothing Without Hope]

2. And AK was 4 and HI was -1.2. There it all is. Chilling.

It might be helpful to add a brief caption for people who haven't read the report. Though it is pretty self-explanatory. The magnitudes of the shifts in state after state and their strategic placement, taken together make an absolutely damning case for massive election fraud.

For my own edification, I'd like to see this map next to representations indicating
1. which states had the most fraud-proof voting technology (less red-shift)
2. state-wide margins of JK or GB victory (red shifts where they are most important nationally, both for state electoral victories and also for padding the total vote counts)
3. states in which JK victory was stolen according to the red shift

Thank you, dzika. I hope word of this gets to the people soon, one way or another.

[dzika]

6. "Battleground" and "Critical" states

Here is a map with only the states that USCV defines as "battleground" or "critical". I can't find USCV's definition of "critical" states but I assume that they are states that Kerry may have won based on the exit poll discrepancy.

The critical states are Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Georgia was also listed as "suspect" but I forgot to include it on this map.

Keep in mind that all of the states with large red shifts are important because they may have contributed to Bush padding.




Voting machine technology varied from precinct to precinct or county to county in most states. I don't think that NEP has released the necessary data to build a geographical map based on precincts or counties.

Two states that come to mind are Oregon and Maine. Oregon has all paper ballots via mail and Maine counts about 80% of ballots by hand. These states have two of the lowest red shifts.

[Nothing Without Hope]

10. Thanks! I hope we find what happened in each of those states

both the ones with big "discrepancies" and the ones that are closer to expected numbers.

[ChiciB1]

3. I Haven't Seen This Yet....

But I do have a question. What is ANYONE planning on doing anything about anything??

I personally have ALWAYS felt the election was a fraud, but NOBODY has ever done much to blow it wide open, and it doesn't look like it will ever happen.

I'm just curious as to why they went to all this trouble.

[TruthIsAll]

8. They are way off in NY. Check Freeman's numbers, based on Simon download

Average Margin of Error 3.05%									
Average Standard Deviation 1.55%									
	EXIT POLLS	Kerry%	ACTUAL RESULTS					
State	Kerry	Bush	2-Pty	Kerry	Bush	Red Shift	Prob	Kerry%Chg
AK	40.5	59.5	40.50%	35	62	36.08%	8	0.22	-4.4
AL	41	59	41.00%	37	63	37.00%	8	0.49	-4.0
AR	46.6	53.4	46.60%	45	54	45.45%	2.2	23.00	-1.1
AZ	47	53	47.00%	44	55	44.44%	5	4.96	-2.6
CA	54	46	54.00%	55	44	55.56%	-3	84.22	1.6

CO	49.1	50.9	49.10%	47	52	47.47%	3.2	14.72	-1.6
CT	58.5	41.5	58.50%	54	44	55.10%	7	1.42	-3.4
DC	91	9	91.00%	90	9	90.91%	1	47.66	-0.1
DE	58.5	41.5	58.50%	53	46	53.54%	10	0.07	-5.0
FL	50	49	50.51%	47	52	47.47%	6	2.53	-3.0

GA	43	57	43.00%	41	58	41.41%	3	15.31	-1.6
HI	53.3	46.7	53.30%	54	45	54.55%	-2.4	78.92	1.2
IA	50.7	49.4	50.65%	49	50	49.49%	2.3	22.82	-1.2
ID	33.5	66.5	33.50%	30	68	30.61%	5	3.12	-2.9
IL	57	43	57.00%	55	45	55.00%	4	9.85	-2.0

IN	41	59	41.00%	39	60	39.39%	3	15.01	-1.6
KS	35	65	35.00%	37	62	37.37%	-5	93.72	2.4
KY	41	59	41.00%	40	60	40.00%	2	25.94	-1.0
LA	44.5	55.5	44.50%	42	57	42.42%	4	9.03	-2.1
MA	66	34	66.00%	62	37	62.63%	7	1.48	-3.4

MD	57	43	57.00%	56	43	56.57%	1	38.97	-0.4
ME	54.8	45.3	54.75%	53	45	54.08%	1.5	33.43	-0.7
MI	52.5	47.5	52.50%	51	48	51.52%	2	26.26	-1.0
MN	54.5	45.5	54.50%	51	48	51.52%	6	2.71	-3.0
MO	47.5	52.5	47.50%	46	54	46.00%	3	16.66	-1.5

MS	43.3	56.8	43.26%	40	60	40.00%	6.5	1.78	-3.3
MT	39.8	60.3	39.76%	39	59	39.80%	-0.5	50.92	0.0
NC	48	52	48.00%	44	56	44.00%	8	0.49	-4.0
ND	34	66	34.00%	36	63	36.36%	-5	93.64	2.4
NE	36.8	63.3	36.76%	32	67	32.32%	8.5	0.21	-4.4

NH	55.4	44.6	55.40%	50	49	50.51%	9.8	0.08	-4.9
NJ	55	45	55.00%	53	46	53.54%	3	17.23	-1.5
NM	51.3	48.7	51.30%	49	50	49.49%	3.6	12.21	-1.8
NV	49.4	50.7	49.35%	48	51	48.48%	1.7	28.82	-0.9
NY	63	37	63.00%	58	40	59.18%	8	0.69	-3.8

OH	52.1	47.9	52.10%	49	51	49.00%	6.2	2.28	-3.1
OK	35	65	35.00%	34	66	34.00%	2	25.94	-1.0
OR	51.2	48.8	51.20%	52	48	52.00%	-1.6	69.71	0.8
PA	54.4	45.7	54.35%	51	49	51.00%	6.7	1.54	-3.3
RI	64	36	64.00%	60	39	60.61%	7	1.43	-3.4

SC	46	54	46.00%	41	58	41.41%	9	0.15	-4.6
SD	37.8	62.3	37.76%	39	60	39.39%	-3.5	85.38	1.6
TN	41.5	58.5	41.50%	43	57	43.00%	-3	83.34	1.5
TX	37	63	37.00%	38	61	38.38%	-3	81.40	1.4
UT	30.5	69.5	30.50%	27	71	27.55%	5	2.85	-2.9

VA	47	51	47.96%	45	54	45.45%	5	5.31	-2.5
VT	65	35	65.00%	59	39	60.20%	10	0.10	-4.8
WA	55	45.1	54.95%	53	46	53.54%	2.9	18.15	-1.4
WI	52.5	47.5	52.50%	50	49	50.51%	4	9.90	-2.0
WV	45.3	54.8	45.25%	43	56	43.43%	3.5	12.01	-1.8
WY	29	65	30.85%	29	69	29.59%	4	20.83	-1.3

[TruthIsAll]

9. Pre-election vs. exit polls vs. actuals.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=330449

[dzika]

11. I noticed that too

Since Simon's name was included in the new USCV report, I assumed the newer numbers were correct. I did use your table in my first attempt to make a redshift map but the USCV report was newer so I changed it.



Do you have any idea why the USCV calculations are now different?

[kster]

15. Are there any maps

like this that show 2000 and or 1996 numbers.

[dzika]

17. I don't think so

If you have red shift data for previous elections, please let me know. I'll be happy to make a new map.

[dzika]

20. Kerry Percent Changed

This map uses the "Kerry%Chg" column in TIA's dataset above.

[kansasblue]

12. how about added paper ballots vs unauditable voting states

I'd like to see the same map with indications for each state that could be recounted or had paper ballots. Wasn't the shift less (or none) in state with out electronic voting machines?

[dzika]

16. 47 states have some paper ballots

According to the data I have, there are 47 states that have paper ballots (which may or may not also have some paperless e-voting). Without the NEP data to break the exit polls down to the county level, I'm not sure that the same map with 47 states (instead of 51) would be meaningful.

If you have different data, please post it and I will try to add it to the map.

[msongs]

13. dems will do NOTHING to get meangful change, silly people.....

here in CA the dog poop eating coward dems in the legislature just voluntarily and with aforethought handed the ENTIRE voting system over the the republicans and smiled while they did it.

cowards cowards and traitors.

Msongs
www.msongs.com/political-shirts.htm

[Bill Bored]

14. This is nice, but I hope we can all agree on the numbers!

Also, the red shift is usually stated as a negative. Here it's positive.
Any particular reason? Thanks.

[dzika]

18. negative red shift is blue shift

That is according to the information at the end of the March 31 USCV report. The data TIA posted also has red shift numbers that are positive.

I can't speak to why the latest USCV report is different from the red shift that TIA has been using. I believe that TIA's numbers are the same ones that Simon originally posted on November 10, 2004.

I'm a little surprised that no one has wondered why the red shift numbers were different in the latest USCV report before now.

[Melissa G]

19. Thanks Dzika! n/t

[FogerRox]

21. Ditto- thanks- graphics like this are great tool-they enable some viewers

to grasp the theme easier than when viewing a table on Excell, most excellent--


AND BOOK MARKED -- thanks again

Roj