At AAPOR, ESI presentation on 2004 New Mexico exit poll

[eomer]

Outcomes and Lessons Learned from Polling Voters during Election 2004

State: New Mexico County:

Author(s): Susan Gabbard, Nicole Vicinanza, Cheryl Wiese, Rich Clark, et al. Date: 05-14-2005

Summary: This AAPOR 2005 presentation focuses on the logistical and analytical challenges that exit pollsters face during an election. The good news is that volunteers and survey professionals can work together to carry out exit polling as part of citizen-based election oversight. However, exit polling cannot provide sufficient oversight alone - it must be part of a more comprehensive oversight plan.

The first slide sums up their meme:

Alternate Title

Exit Polls:
Not as pretty as they seem

http://www.electionscience.org/Members/StevenHertzberg/report.2005-05-14.0536994625/view?searchterm=None

[Paul Dlugokencky]

1. Would like to read more than a PowerPoint

Checked out a bit more on the site. One item was tantalizing, titled "2004 Ohio Exit Polls and Election Results" (http://www.electionscience.org/Members/StevenHertzberg/report.2005-05-14.4978140903/view?searchterm=None)
- - - -
State: Ohio County:
Author(s): Dr. Fritz Scheuren Date: 05-14-2005

Summary: The attached presentation was delivered during the American Association of Public Opinion Researchers Plenary session on Saturday May 14, 2005 as part of a larger session on the 2004 exit polls, with Warren Mitofsky of Mitofsky Int'l and Kathy Frankovic of CBS News. Dr. Scheuren's analysis confirms pollster Warren Mitofsky’s assertion that the exit polls that put John Kerry ahead of George Bush in Ohio on Election Day 2004 do not necessarily indicate that there was fraud in the Ohio election.
- - - - -

Unfortunately, the down-loadable file is a PDF of a PowerPoint presentation lacking any real detail to support the bullet points. I'd like to approach this with an open mind, or at least open to hear/read some things that challenge my point of view. The truth can often be more complicated than we would like to believe (I'm still in the camp that feels Ohio was stolen last year).



http://www.cafepress.com/kickindemocrats

[eomer]

2. Paul, here are a couple of threads about that ESI paper:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=368051&mesg_id=368051

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368978