NEW HAMPSHIRE'S DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS ARE SUSPICIOUS

[whirlygigspin]

http://www.unobserver.com/index.php?pagina=layout5.php&id=4271&blz=1


DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYZING THE NEW HAMPSHIRE JANUARY 8, 2008 PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS

Another Statistical analysis which reaches the same conclusions as the National Election Data Archive, with links to vote count data
http://call-with-current-continuation.blogspot.com/2008/01/statistical-exploration-of-new.html

New Hampshire Secretary of State Web Site
http://www.sos.nh.gov/presprim2008/index.htm

2008 New Hampshire Republican & Democratic Primary Results
http://ronrox.com/paulstats.php?party=REPUBLICANS
http://ronrox.com/paulstats.php?party=DEMOCRATS


The type of voting method each town uses:
http://www.bbvdocs.org/NH/state/Jan-08-votingsystems-NH.txt
http://www.sos.nh.gov/voting%20machines2006.htm

National Election Data Archive
http://electionarchive.org/ucvData/NH/

Pre-election opinion polls:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html

Note: No exit poll data was publicly released after the election unless it had been adjusted to match the final unofficial vote counts. I.e. No public exit poll data is available to use to judge the accuracy of the election results as occurred after the 2004 presidential election.

CNN Exit poll info:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#val=NHDEM
FOX News Exit Polls: Women and Seniors Like Clinton
http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/08/fox-news-exit-polls-independents-like-obama-mccain/

[aquart]

1. Any time Obama loses it's fraud.

Because he's entitled to every single vote and everyone loves and adores him and nobody thinks he's an ice cold liar with a real good spiel.

[alittlelark]

2. I've seen you on this board for years

I can only assume you are PUI.


I didn't see a 'sarcasm' tag

[whirlygigspin]

3. sorry, but what is PUI?

[alittlelark]

5. Posting Under the Influence.

I've certainly been guilty of a PUI.

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

4. I guess I don't understand the concept of exit polling...

...what could possibly be the point of doing it if you don't release the results until the votes have been tallied, and even then, adjust them based on actual results?

To me, this is like sending out RSVP invitations for a dinner, collecting responses and determining the number who plan to attend, but then not sharing this information with the dinner hostess until the evening of the dinner AFTER the guests have arrived, and adjusting the RSVP "attending" total based on how many actually arrive -- would this not defeat the purpose of RSVP invitations?

[kansasblue]

6. I guess there goal is to explain who voted for who and why... and

as such I guess they feel that there data would only be right if it match the recorded vote count.

[JMDEM]

7. Exit polling is SUPPOSED to help confirm the actual totals

Actually, that is one of it's positive side-effects. It is supposed to help the MSM determine the winner before all votes are counted, which can take days.

But the way the MSM currently employs exit polling, it's current purpose is to insert a pole up our exits.

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

8. Well and painfully put. nt.

[dnbmathguy]

9. The R Analysis Performed in the Second Link

I'm not sure I agree with the R analysis in the second link. The author is attempting to compute Hillary's vote percentage in a particular town using the type of vote counting (hand or electronic) and the town size as explanatory variables. However, there's a problem: town size and the type of vote counting are highly correlated. The 15 biggest cities and towns in New Hampshire are:

1. Manchester
2. Nashua
3. Concord
4. Derry
5. Rochester
6. Salem
7. Dover
8. Merrimack
9. Londonderry
10. Hudson
11. Keene
12. Portsmouth
13. Bedford
14. Goffstown
15. Laconia

All of which use electronic voting! This means that we really can't hold "voting by hand" constant, unfortunately.

Sources: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb210/is_200612/a...
http://www.sos.nh.gov/voting%20machines2006.htm

[HughMoran]

10. it's true

oh, well