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OK ... here's a winning scenario WITHOUT Ohio

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welshTerrier2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:46 AM
Original message
OK ... here's a winning scenario WITHOUT Ohio
let's say Kerry loses Ohio and wins all the "supposed to states" in the upper mid-west ... these include michigan, wisconsin, minnesota and iowa ... a Boston pollster has already called NH for Kerry ...

now, if Kerry wins NM and Nevada (and Hawaii), we would be at 269-269 ... an apparent tie ...

HOWEVER, there's one republican elector in west virginia who said he is considering not voting for bush ... if he votes for anyone except bush, the EV totals would be Kerry 269 and bush 268 ... that would be a win for Kerry ...

just considering the possibilities here ... not making a prediction ...
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aden_nak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:46 AM
Response to Original message
1. If it's 269 to 268, Kerry still does not win.
Because you "need" 270. It goes to the House.
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nborders Donating Member (67 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:48 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Maine could send one vote to Bush
they split their electorial votes.

~n
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ajacobson Donating Member (828 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:49 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. I think ABC called all Maine ev
for Kerry
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mountainvue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:18 AM
Response to Reply #5
14. They did. n/t
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settembrini Donating Member (33 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:48 AM
Response to Reply #1
4. 270-268
the point is if that elector goes kerry, he'd still win
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Il_Coniglietto Donating Member (217 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:49 AM
Response to Reply #1
6. Then the only thing we can do
is whatever it takes to make that one elector go for Kerry. Buy him a nice mansion overlooking some California coastline or something. God this is sad. Where has this country gone?!
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0rganism Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:47 AM
Response to Original message
2. If niether candidate has a majority, it goes to the House
Without a complete defection from the WV elector, i.e. he goes to Kerry, it's up to the House.
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Silver Gaia Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:54 AM
Response to Reply #2
8. If Colorado passes the vote-splitting measure
won't that make a portion of those votes go to Kerry? Anyone know how that measure did in Colorado???
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Touchdown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:58 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. Dead in tha water
Amendment 36

66% No
34% Yes

GOP Block voting against. Dem/Ind undecisive. It never had a chance.
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InhaleToTheChief Donating Member (189 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:59 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. AAR said it didn't pass
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Is It Fascism Yet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:22 AM
Response to Reply #8
20. yes, your right about that
but don't know if the measure passed. if it did pass, it will certainly be challenged by the chimp.
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ajacobson Donating Member (828 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:53 AM
Response to Original message
7. NM exit polls look good
but the exit polling has been totally fucked compared to the actual results, not good.
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Emboldened Chimp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:02 AM
Response to Original message
11. I don't think we're getting NM...
which means we have to win OHIO. COME ON!
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Rhiannon12866 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:03 AM
Response to Original message
12. I heard that Hawaii went to Kerry
And I also heard about that lone West Virginia delegate who doesn't feel that he can vote for Bush*. Al Franken interviewed him last week, and he asked him this exact question, what would he do in the case of a tie? The entire election could rest on his vote, or lack of one. He said that he hopes that doesn't happen. And Maine could also split its delegates. I believe that they have five.:shrug:
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Is It Fascism Yet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:20 AM
Response to Reply #12
16. yes, i heard that too
and i sure hope he is a man of his word.
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grasswire Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:16 AM
Response to Original message
13. wait
Can't a state seat a whole other set of electors in certain circumstances?

Isn't that what FL was going to do in 2000?
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Is It Fascism Yet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:21 AM
Response to Reply #13
18. yes, i think they could have sent any electors they wanted
but you know what jeb wanted.
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Is It Fascism Yet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:19 AM
Response to Original message
15. Kerry is not losing, all the early vote by mail ballots are his!
Kerry is not losing! His supporters voted early by mail to avoid Diebold cheating. Shrub campaign knows this and has already attempted to get court orders not to count the early mail votes. My vote is in there, and i am pissed at the suggestion...went exactly this same cheating lieing way in 2000.
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Matilda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:38 AM
Response to Reply #15
24. Still trying to get my head around some of the finer points
of your voting system.

How and why could they possibly not count early mail votes if they're
not illegal?
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PoliticalJihad Donating Member (41 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:21 AM
Response to Original message
17. Yahoo says Iowa leaning to *
Yahoo says Iowa leaning to the chimp, was leaning to Kerry.

But, still very close:

1822 of 2079 precincts - 88 percent

George W. Bush Rep 676,754 - 50 percent
John F. Kerry Dem 673,933 - 50 percent
Ralph Nader PEC 5,114 - 0 percent

Nader might make a difference here.


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Catherine Vincent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:22 AM
Response to Original message
19. That one elector is probably being paid a lot of money at this minute
by the bushies.
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Is It Fascism Yet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:24 AM
Response to Reply #19
21. maybe even some repubs know some things are worth more than $
Maybe, have hope, maybe his country is more important than his wallet.
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never_get_over_it Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:28 AM
Response to Original message
22. Down in IA and NM
Ohio is the key....this thing was so stolen - I am so sick of these people and I don't think I can take 4 more years
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teryang Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:31 AM
Response to Original message
23. Much closer than alleged 3,000,000 vote lead
BBC has Electoral votes at 249/221. Ohio lead for chimp moving down.
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