NBA Playoff predictions and analysis - Democratic Underground

Elad ADMIN

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Tue Apr-04-06 02:20 PM
Original message

NBA Playoff predictions and analysis

Now that the NCAA Tournament is over, basketball eyes naturally turn towards the looming NBA playoffs. I've never gone out and made predictions like this before, but figured it'd be fun to give it a try. I fully expect to be wrong on many counts, but we'll see. :)

Anyway, here's my analysis:

EAST
---------

1 -- Detroit

8 -- Philadelphia ------- Detroit

4 -- Cleveland

5 -- Milwaukee -------- Cleveland ------------------- Detroit

2 -- Miami

7 -- Chicago ----------- Miami

3 -- New Jersey

6 -- Washington -------- New Jersey ----------------- New Jersey ------------- Detroit

WEST
----------

1 -- San Antonio

8 -- Sacramento ------- San Antonio

4 -- Dallas

5 -- Memphis ----------- Dallas --------------------- San Antonio

2 -- Phoenix

7 -- Lakers ------------- Phoenix

3 -- Denver

6 -- Clippers ------------ Denver --------------------- Phoenix ----------------- San Antonio

********************************

EASTERN CONFERENCE SEEDING
------------------------------------------------------

1 - Detroit - no explanation needed
2 - Miami - I think New Jersey has a legitimate chance at the #2 seed, but ultimately I had to give the edge to Miami. However, if Shaq and Mourning are struggling with injuries for much longer, I might have to change my opinion.
3 - New Jersey - The Nets have been playing incredibly well lately, and they've made a believer out of me with their defensive toughness (how about Jason Kidd shutting down both Chauncey Billups and Steve Nash on back-to-back road games?).
4 - Cleveland - The Cavs have a pretty solid grip on the 4 seed, and are getting Larry Hughes back.
5 - Milwaukee - This was a tough one, both Washington and Milwaukee are playing well, but I think that Milwaukee will squeak past them for the 5 seed. Milwaukee and Washington play each other twice in the next couple of weeks.
6 - Washington - I think Washington will slip a little going into the playoffs.
7 - Chicago - Perhaps because I lived 6 years in Chicago, I'm going to be generous and say that not only will the Bulls make the playoffs, but they'll beat the Sixers for the 7th seed. The Bulls tend to be underestimated, have a lot of young talent (which, although streaky, when they're on, they're really on), and a tough, smart coach. Also note that the Bulls play the Sixers twice in the remaining weeks. The Bulls are 1.5 games behind Philadelphia for the 8th seed, and 2.5 games behind Indiana for the 7th.
8 - Philadelphia - This was a tough pick between Indiana and Philadelphia. With injuries and burn-out from all the crap they've gone through, I see Indiana falling out of the playoff race, and Philadelphia taking the 8th seed. Indiana could still hold out for the 8th seed, but ultimately I have to give the edge to the (relatively, compared to Indiana) healthy, playoff-experienced veterans, Iverson and Webber, although Indiana does have a pretty easy schedule through the end of the season, so they shouldn't be written off entirely. The Pacers play the Bulls tonight, and the Cavs play the Sixers. The outcomes of these games will go a long way to determining how the 7th and 8th seed in the east go.

WESTERN CONFERENCE SEEDING
-------------------------------------------------------

1 - San Antonio - Dallas is legitimate, but the Spurs have more experience and are tougher-minded.
2 - Phoenix - The Suns have the pacific division all but locked up.
3 - Denver - Denver will also cruise to their division title.
4 - Dallas - Dallas will make a push for the southwest division title, but ultimately I believe they'll fall a couple games short of catching up with the Spurs.
5 - Memphis - Pau Gasol is crazy, and the Grizzlies have won 7 of their last 10. I think they'll eek out the Clippers for the 5th seed.
6 - Clippers - The Clippers have been one of this season's surprise teams, but Brand lacks playoff experience and Cassell is getting older. I think they'll slip a little down the stretch.
7 - Lakers - I have to say I'm surprised to see the Lakers in the playoff race, I wouldn't have predicted that at the beginning of the season. Phil Jackson deserves a lot of credit for that, and of course, Kobe's insane play this year has certainly helped, but I don't see them moving up or down in the seeding.
8 - Sacramento - The Kings have been turned around by Ron Artest's arrival, and I think that added toughness will help the Kings stave off the Hornets and the Jazz to make the playoffs.

EASTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND
-------------------------------------------------------------

(1) Detroit vs. (8) Philadelphia

Not much to say about this matchup, Detroit wins in 4.

(2) Miami vs. (7) Chicago

This matchup will depend on the health of Shaq and Mourning. If they're both healthy, it should be a short series. If they're both out, it could go 6 or 7 games. Chicago will put some pressure on Miami, but Miami should be able to finish them off in 5 games.

(3) New Jersey vs. (6) Washington

If Kidd, Carter and Jefferson are all healthy, NJ should dominate the Wizards and win in 6 games.

(4) Cleveland vs. (5) Milwaukee

I think this will be the most interesting matchup in the first round of the east. Both teams have the potential to win, and I think the series will go to 7 games. Ultimately I think Lebron, Ilgauskas and Hughes will be too much for the Bucks, but don't expect the Bucks to go down without a fight.

WESTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND
--------------------------------------------------------------

(1) San Antonio vs. (8) Sacramento

San Antonio will get down to business and take care of the Kings pretty quickly. However, I think Sacramento could steal a game or two. San Antonio in 5.

(2) Phoenix vs. (7) Lakers

I think this matchup has a lot of upset potential. Kobe could get hot, and Phoenix suffers from occasional cold spells. But Steve Nash is ridiculous, and Phoenix is a more consistent team, whereas the Lakers are streaky. Phoenix in 6.

(3) Denver vs. (6) Clippers

This matchup also could end up in an upset, and I think it depends on the health of Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby. If they're both healthy, Denver should be able to win this series pretty handily. If either or both of them are struggling/sidelined with injury, the Clippers could potentially upset the Nuggets. My prediction: Denver in 7.

(4) Dallas vs. (5) Memphis

Dallas shouldn't have too much of a problem with Memphis, assuming everyone is healthy. Dallas in 6.

EASTERN CONFERENCE SECOND ROUND
------------------------------------------------------------------

(1) Detroit vs. (4) Cleveland

I see Detroit slipping back into the zone they were in during the first half of the season by this time, and combined with the Cavs lack of playoff experience, Cleveland really doesn't stand much of a chance. Detroit in 5.

(2) Miami vs. (3) New Jersey

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that New Jersey will upset Miami in a heated 7-game series. I'm saying that based on the assumption that either Shaq or Mourning (or both) will not be 100%. New Jersey has been on fire lately and have shown some incredible defensive toughness to go with their potent, athletic offense.

WESTERN CONFERENCE SECOND ROUND
-------------------------------------------------------------------

(1) San Antonio vs. (4) Dallas

I would love to say that Dallas will upset the Spurs in this series, but I just don't think it will happen. San Antonio knows how to take care of business in the playoffs, and Bruce Bowen has shown that he can shutdown Nowitzki. With Nowitzki struggling with Bowen harassing him, the Spurs should be able to win in 7.

(2) Phoenix vs. (3) Denver

This will be another heated series, I believe, with Phoenix winning in 7. Denver has the potential to upset if they're healthy, but I have to give the edge to the MVP.

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
---------------------------------------------------

(1) Detroit vs. (3) New Jersey

New Jersey recently beat Detroit with an impressive defensive effort, but I don't expect they'll be able to do it over a 7 game series, especially when the Pistons can see the championship just around the corner. I expect the Pistons to play like the team that was generating talk of 72 wins, and beat the Nets in 6 games.

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
----------------------------------------------------

(1) San Antonio vs. (2) Phoenix

Again, as much as I'd like to say the Suns will upset the Spurs, I just don't think it will happen, not with Amare Stoudemire unlikely to return this year. Nash and the Suns will give San Antonio a run for their money, but San Antonio should have it wrapped up in 6.

NBA FINALS
-------------------

(1) Detroit vs. (1) San Antonio

I'm going to be like everyone else and predict a rematch of last year's finals. However, with the Pistons likely holding homecourt advantage, being generally healthier (assuming no major injuries in the playoffs - remember Tim Duncan is still struggling with plantar fasciitis in his foot), still having a grudge on their shoulders over not winning the title last year, and realizing that this is what they worked so hard for all year long, I predict Detroit will win in 6 games.