Big Brown by 10 in Sunday's Haskell

[trumad]

I still say this is one sweet horse.

A new beginning, or the beginning of the end?

Sunday's $1 million Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park will be one or the other for Big Brown, the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner who makes his first start since being pulled up by jockey Kent Desormeaux with a quarter-mile remaining in the Belmont Stakes.

The 1 1/8-mile Haskell is the centerpiece of a 14-race card that begins at noon Eastern and includes seven other stakes, including the Grade 3 Matchmaker for fillies and mares on turf and the Grade 3 Oceanport for colts and geldings on turf. The Haskell is the last leg of an all-stakes pick four that has a guaranteed pool of $250,000. There is also a $50,000 guaranteed pool on the pick-five wager, with a 50-cent minimum bet, that begins on race 5.

The Haskell will be shown live on ESPN Classic in a 30-minute show beginning at 6 p.m. Eastern. TVG will provide daylong coverage of the entire Haskell card.
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=3515588

[two gun sid]

1. He is a nice horse, I'll give you that...

but, I think there's a good chance BB gets beat on Sunday. Cool Coal Man is my pick. I just don't like all the distractions Dutrow has had to deal with leading up to this race. That and a couple of works that had me scratching my head. But I will make a prediction: Dutrow will lose the IEAH horses before the Breeders Cup.

Don't forget the WVa Derby and the Test Stakes today on ESPN. If anyone wants free PP's for these races holler and I'll link to them. Here's the PP for the Haskell:


http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/dogwoodstable_119601.pdf

[Justpat]

4. Thanks for the PP's of the race.

There is nothing in there with BB that should beat him if he is on his game.

Indian Blessing was so awesome in the Test.

[two gun sid]

7. You're welcome.

How are you? How's the weather? How's the crowd and handle? But, more importantly, how's the hosses?

Our hosses suck right now.

Here's a link to yesterday's Hambletonian Final. Looks like Harness Racings got a new Superstar in trotter Deweycheatumnhowe.

http://207.232.119.242/usta/ustavideo.cfm?race=hmed080208e08f

[Justpat]

37. So far the attendance is down at the Spa

and the handle is down a bit too.

Opening day was a deluge of rain so that put didn't help to get things off to a good start.
Then it has rained off and on just about every day since I got here.

The horses are OK, just no races for many of them in the first book.

[two gun sid]

39. Are you having fun?

During Saratoga and Del Mar I sometimes wish I'd have made different career choices. I guess I really don't regret the choices I made that got me into the SB business but, seeing Saratoga on TV and watching a horse like Indian Blessing...well, damn. I'd just like one time to be able to rub on a horse like her. Horses like her make me shake.

How's the turf up there? Has that nice grass horse you got worked over it yet?

Thinking of you and the crew and wishing you all the best.

[Justpat]

41. It is great being here.

This is the way racing is supposed to be and it is the way horses should be
There are two training tracks in addition to the main track and everyone
is happy to be here.

There is a race for Talkhouse on Monday but he has a cough that the vet thinks
is due to allergies up here. Lots of horses cough here that don't do it anywhere
else. I'll let you know if he is going to run or not.

[Awsi Dooger]

44. Rain sounds awesome

Here I root for a temperature below 105.

I've been intentionally avoiding news about Saratoga and the weather. Too depressing not to be there.

BTW, the other day at Ballys racebook I picked up a magazine called Del Mar Scene. Very interesting. Many articles about jockeys who used to race at Saratoga but now spend August at Del Mar -- Migliore, Smith, Gomez, Desormeaux. I expected it to have a pro-Del Mar, anti-Saratoga slant but it was anything but that. It was positive about both tracks, emphasizing the differences. The jockeys say Saratoga is more formal and a day long job, while at Del Mar they play on the beach with their families during the morning and early afternoon, then wander to the track for a 3 PM post, with owners and trainers greeting them in flip flops.

Also a lengthy article on Pincay. I was surprised at how much it focused on his poor ride on Affirmed in the '78 Travers. He cut Affirmed off leading to DQ. Pincay says he had no idea Alydar was in that spot, and Jorge Velasquez aboard Alydar didn't shout to let him know he was there.

[aaronbees]

11. I wonder if Baffert ....

will let Indian Blessing go long again. She's a pretty neat horse and part of a great crop of three-year-old fillies. As a sprinter, I can't see anyone in her division who can beat her.

[greenbriar]

2. Is Desormeaux riding him?

I hope he wins

[two gun sid]

3. Yep, Kent's got the call.

[greenbriar]

5. I think Kent really loves this horse

many are still angry that he pulled Big Brown up that last race, but I think Kent was thinking more for the safety of the horse than winning.


I love jockies that are more concerned for the horses than for the money

[two gun sid]

6. I'll never question a decision a jockey makes during the, running....

of a race. Good luck to your horse, Big Brown, today. I hope he proves us critics wrong.

They ran the Test Stakes at Saratoga yesterday. The 3YO filly Indian Blessing totally outclassed her rivals. Here's a link to the video of that race:

http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=qgwK-rbNGsE

[two gun sid]

8. Big Brown wins!

Cool Coal Man had no excuse.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Much more interesting race than I was expecting

Big Brown stalked but he never looked as relaxed as the Derby or Preakness. I wasn't certain at the head of the stretch when that frontrunner remained ahead by about 2, and Big Brown wasn't exploding.

Once he straightened out he ate up the leader but Big Brown drifted to the middle of the track.

The return races after the Triple Crown series generally aren't great. I always keep that in mind.

[two gun sid]

16. I thought BB wasn't gonna fire....

but, he got the job done in the end. After that race I say he goes to the breeding shed. He's done on the race track.

[aaronbees]

10. Gotta say, I wasn't impressed

He's lucky Coal Play (who finished third in an optional claimer last out), who ran a hell of a brave race out there, petered out. BB showed some guts to grind out that win, but I think he'll get trounced if he ever faces older horses. Curlin would wallop him. So would Zenyatta and Ginger Punch. Maybe even Music Note could beat him.

[trumad]

12. Let's see---the Florida Derby---The KY Derby----The Preakness--- The Haskell----

One bad race most likely due to a hoof crack----

but he'll get trounced by older horses who have done exactly what?

BB wasn't in very good shape for this race which is to be expected--- but he still did what he had to do to go scoreboard.

You do know that Curlin lost the Haskell as a big favorite? 4-5 to be exact and he placed 3rd. The winning time for that race was 1:48.35.

Today it was 1:48 1/5.

So I think your thesis that BB will get trounced by er older horses is a bit goofy.

[aaronbees]

13. Would you back him against Curlin or Commentator?

I wouldn't. BB ran a nice race today, but he's not the same horse he was in May. That's two races in a row where he's show what looks to me like a regression in form. He was otherworldly in Florida, Kentucky and Maryland; of that, there's no doubt. And perhaps Dutrow can right the ship with him before the Breeders' Cup if he gets to race and work him consistently, but today I saw a horse who looked done at the turn and ground it out on class. Raw times don't mean much. It's a speed favoring track and the time was good. Doesn't mean anything in comparison to Curlin, who faced much better horses last year and, like BB, was probably a bit short. BB doesn't look like he's improving, though he did show some guts today - nice to see. I just don't have confidence in him as the year goes on, though.

[two gun sid]

14. I think BB would get whipped by Curlin also....

and here's my thinking: Early in the year we saw BB just destroying his rivals and I feel he was just more mature than the rest of his foal crop. Every week his competition catch up to him in maturity. He still is probably better than every other 3YO colt out there but he's gonna have a harder time winning races against horses he destroyed earlier. I like Curlin to defeat him because older usually have an edge at this point in the year. Come BC time most 3YO have as good a chance as older horses. I think BB is also beatable if you can trap him down low and kick dirt in his face. If he can't get wide and clear he doesn't run his race. After much thought about this years Belmont, the fact that he got so fractious in the early going when things were not going his way is what I attribute to his poor performance. He had a lot of other things going against him in the Belmont so this is strictly my opinion.

Zito tried to do in the Haskell what he did in the Belmont with Da Tara and Anak Nakal. Send a speed horse and try to get BB stuck behind horses and throw dirt in his face. Then have Cool Coal Man gobble BB up in the stretch. Atoned didn't do the job Tale Of Akati did in the Belmont. BB was able to get wide and clear. BB was just able to reel in Coal Play but I think races are gonna be harder for him at this point. He still found a way to win and that says a whole lot about BB in my opinion.

My prediction: Big Brown will be retired before The Travers.

[aaronbees]

15. That's a great analysis

And that Zito tactic almost worked again. I don't know if he'll be retired, but Big Brown is a quirky horse - maybe it's the feet, maybe it's something else along with that, but he's not at the top of his game now and he's laboring where he once showed brilliance. I'd love to see him run for a different trainer.

[trumad]

17. Throw the Belmont out---period

I think he wasn't fully recovered from the hoof crack and the loose horseshoe certainly didn't help.
I'm a time guy----always have been. 1:48 1/5 ain't bad at all.......

Sure he looked shaky today but a 57 day layoff plus light training will do that.

If he runs the Travers and wins it, I'm sure there will be plenty out there that will still diss this horse.

[two gun sid]

18. You make some valid points...

long lay-off could have affected his performance today. And I certainly do not disrespect BB. I just think he's beatable and Zito has shown us how to beat him. I've felt that this years crop of 3YO's have been pretty slow and BB was the best of the bunch. But that's not his fault. He can only beat the horses that he races against. We'll see if he continues racing. I'd like to see him take on and beat older horses before we put him in the Hall of Fame.

[trumad]

19. I agree 100 percent---that is why I hope he does not retire just yet.

Let him run the Travers---- and if he wins, set him up against the older tough guys like Curlin. It would be terrific for horse racing if that were to happen---

He just seemed off his game today.... pulling right with Ken fighting him all the way.... I think he can get back on track quickly and look great for the next race, hopefully for Saratoga.

[aaronbees]

21. I'd love to see him run in the Travers

Let the horse run. Let the horse use those guts he showed today. But it seems doubtful; his three-ring-circus connections will treat him like a hothouse flower - whether it's BB's physical issues or that stud deal, I don't know. Here's what Dutrow had to say on the Travers: "I wouldn’t do it, because it looked like he put in one hell of a race today," Dutrow said. "To run him back so quickly, it might not be in his best interests." (http://www.drf.com/news/article/97003.html) Well, Rick, you sure didn't see anything go wrong between the Derby and Preakness, spaced only 2 weeks apart. ... If BB actually ran back, he would have a better shot of getting into shape and improving. I hope Iavarone overrules Dutrow on this.

[Awsi Dooger]

23. Pathetic when 20 days is "so quickly"

I remember when I used to handicap daily and I'd downgrade horses who hadn't run in the past 3 or 4 weeks. Now it's the norm.

I doubt they'll run Big Brown in the Travers. It doesn't look like the race sets up soft. Da'Tara will be there on the front end and many other possibles:

* Pyro
* Macho Again
* Harlem Rocker
* Anak Nakal
* Mambo

I don't know about Colonel John. He was considered a Travers possible before the poor effort a few weeks ago.

[Awsi Dooger]

20. Pivotal moment in the race today

Once Coal Play roared past Big Brown early, Atoned came outside alongside Big Brown. I thought for a few seconds that he would pinch Big Brown to the inside. Admittedly, I was rooting for that, for dirt to get kicked in Big Brown's face. Nothing against Big Brown and I didn't have a penny on the race, but I wanted to see how Big Brown would react to adversity, to try to identify what might have gone wrong in the Belmont.

The way it turned out, Big Brown shook off Atoned and managed a clear path slightly outside Coal Play.

I was at Saratoga last year when Street Sense needed every bit of the Jim Dandy to barely get up against a weak field. And Street Sense had missed the Belmont. I don't want to overreact too much to this. Many, many examples of horses coming out of the Triple Crown series and laboring early in their next race. I remember Affirmed had to come from maybe 20 lengths back to edge Sensitive Prince at Saratoga.

[two gun sid]

22. Yep. BB seems to not like dirt kicked back into his face....

I'm guessing Dutrow was aware of this when he took that outside post in the Derby. It looks like this might be his Achilles Heel. Trap him down low behind horses. BB was impressive the way he broke out of the gate today. Kent D. could have had the lead if he would have wanted it but I think he thought better of it. Coal Play would have dueled him into the ground. That's why Zito put a guy like Jersey Joe Bravo on the rabbit. Atoned didn't do his job which was to force BB low and trap him. Kent D. did a good job today.

I had a small wager on Cool Coal Man. What the hell, that's horse racing. Bologna sandwiches this week for lunch.

I think he's done but I hope I'm wrong. This horse is good for the sport even with the baggage his connections bring. And a meeting between him and Curlin should be a dandy. I'm with trumad on that.

[trumad]

24. It would be a terrific boost for horse racing

and would be a nationally televised race. mho

[Justpat]

38. He finished up past the middle of the track.

He was getting out bad and I thought he was going to end up
on the outside fence.

He won but I was not impressed.
Maybe he does have a world of talent - but I think he is saying
that he has a lot of hurtin' somewhere too.

[bread_and_roses]

42. That's what I worry about

though I'm afraid that I'm not sure what "getting out bad" means (drifting way out on the track toward the outside fence?). I enjoyed the race tremendously, but he doesn't seem to run or finish like he did earlier in the season, when, as someone below said, he looked otherworldy. I remember people talking after the Derby? Preakness? both? that he looked to have plenty left after the finish. He sure didn't look like he had much left at the end of this one. A beautiful creatue, though, to my eye - I really enjoyed seeing him up close in the paddock - seems to have a "balanced" body, though I've no claim to an eye for conformation.

I was sorry to read upthread that there are not good races for your horses. I hope you are enjoying the Spa nonetheless, and having great good fortune with any that do run - I really look forward to hearing from the owners here how their horses do, even if I don't always comment - I often read it long after the event, not getting here that much these days.

[bread_and_roses]

25. I was at the Haskell

to see Big Brown. Was able to get a good look at him (about arms-length away) in the pre-race paddock. Very handsome, I thought, but then, they almost all look beautiful to me. He didn't look quite as "sturdy" as I'd thought - though I couldn't tell if that was a difference in him or in the way he looks in real life vs on a TV screen.

We were no where near the winners circle so went inside to watch that bit on a big screen. As they showed him being sloshed down with water, you could plainly see his sides heaving. I didn't recall seeing that before but again - difference between live track camera and what's on TV? Nor do I have any idea what's "normal." I'd think any creature would be heaving after running a mile + at those speeds, but mention here because others note he looked pretty done in after the race.

It was an exciting race to watch live. Also exciting to hear the crowd cheer for BB - given the odds, they couldn't have been cheering for a killing at the window.

Totally OT, I was in the car listening to a show on TOTN at NPR - topic was charisma, and someone called in and talked about Secretariat's charisma even as a two-year old. Gave me a smile.

[two gun sid]

28. That race looked like hard going for BB....

so I'm not suprised he was blowing like that. Pretty normal but each horse and race is different. Maybe the long lay-off left him not quite fit. Glad you got to see him.

Speaking of charismatic horses, have you seen Zenyatta race? She won Clement L. Hirsch this weekend. Check her out. Look how much bigger she is than any of the other mares. She reminds me of Ruffian. Watch the move she makes at the turn to get running room at about 1:31. Awesome.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vVXuRfjSlA

[Awsi Dooger]

30. I've watched Zenyatta's races on YouTube

The ones that are there. Amazing specimen. She runs so green and gangly at times but even while doing so she gobbles up ground.

Her more recent races aren't dominant. I never get too carried away with horses who feature that style, relying on a late burst after content to trail badly. But the race against Ginger Punch is remarkable. Zenyatta roars past on the outside, not even fully extended, and it seems unfair, like a different species.

[bread_and_roses]

43. Thanks for the head's up - that one's a !wow!

I think the video on the bloodhorse site is the sharpest. I loved watching her start moving at the back just sailing past all the other horses.

[two gun sid]

26. Dutrow: "We're way better than Curlin".

From The Philly Daily News:
We love to make myths. And when those myths don't quite meet reality, we tend to get upset.

The Big Brown legend was formed before its time. The colt was brilliant in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, not just winning but also dominating. What mythmakers typically can't handle is reality.

Even before the Belmont Stakes disaster (blame it on the ride, the heat, the Triple Crown grind, the stars, the moon), Big Brown was never Secretariat or Spectacular Bid. Big Brown was a very good horse beating a bunch of below-average 3-year-olds. That, however, did not fit the story line.

Big Brown won the $1 million Haskell Invitational yesterday at Monmouth Park. The colt won by showing great courage in the stretch to run down a loose leader that really looked like a gone winner at the top of the stretch.

http://www.philly.com/dailynews/sports/20080804_Big_Brown_uses_big_finish_to_win_Haskell_Invitational.html

After reading this article I thought maybe the writer had been reading the DU Horse Racing thread. All of you DU ladies and guys are amazingly astute horseplayers and really understand this sport. This place has the best coverage and conversations about racing on the net. None of the other message boards come close. I value each and everyone of the you and your insights.

[TZ]

27. Oh good god. Dutrow just can't keep his mouth shut

Maybe he will put his money where his mouth is and make sure Big Brown races agaisnt Curlin.

[two gun sid]

29. I would like to see that match-up

That race would be a big deal.

Speaking of Colts, your Colt looked good yesterday against Indy.

[trumad]

31. I'll put money on it....

and the writer up above is a knucklehead who conveniently forgets the Florida Derby where BB dominated... He (BB)won the Haskell in better time than "Any Given Sunday"--- a horse that trounced Curlin in the Haskell.

I hope this race occurs and I like Dutrow calling out Curlin---- it's good business for the sport and it will make it a huge event.

[two gun sid]

34. It will be huge....

Now I have a question for you. BB has went 1 1/4 miles once in the KY Derby. He won but, do you worry that his breeding may limit his ability at that distance against really good GI horses that have proven themselves to get a distance of ground?

[trumad]

36. Good question....

Again--- I have to throw out the Belmont so I really have nothing to study this by.

I do use the last two furlongs of the Preakness to get a hint that he has more than enough to take it to the house. I think that Dutrow and Ken will come up with a game plan for the older horses and dictate the race in their terms. mho

I don't buy the dirt in the face analysis simply because it hasn't been proven--- Again---again---again----I don't think that you can use the Belmont for any analysis of BB. I think that BB wasn't prepared well enough for the Haskell, ---- maybe they we're over-confident, hence the light training..... or maybe--- all the naysayers are right and BB has blown his load and will fade into the dating game with beautiful Filly's.

My hope is that BB, Curlin and all the other top grade oldies face off against each other.... That would be fun and generate huge interest in the sport.

[two gun sid]

40. I liked his Haskell...

He might have been a little short but he found a way to win. Like OB says, maybe he's sore and that's why he drifted to the outside but, he still found a way to win. Zito tried to gang up on him but he still found a way to win. To me a horse that can make his own luck is a damn good one. A lot of those nickel SOB's gotta have a race practically handed to them to find their way to the winners circle. Good horses run through soreness. Good horse don't sulk if things don't go their way. Good horses find a way to win even when they're a little short. Good horses are tough physically and mentally. Good horses never quit.

BB is a good horse. I think Curlin is better. And until Curlin does something to change my mind I'm gonna back him. This rivalry and smack talking is fun. And horse racing is always supposed to be fun. I look forward to a great rest of the season.

[aaronbees]

32. I suspect Curlin will run next in the Woodward....

so I imagine that charmer Dutrow will take BB there to face off with that sorry lil' champ who got beat by a filly? Sounds like easy pickins to me, and poor Dutrow gets the added incentive of one more week of prep work so BB doesn't have to run in that mean ol' Travers Stakes coming up in three weeks. I mean, after all, why not go up against Curlin now on a dirt track and wrap up HOY since BB is "way better" than Curlin? Like ... way out, babe!

[two gun sid]

33. This Curlin - Big Brown match up is turning into...

a Texas Cage Match. It's great hype for the sport. Now if only one of the trainers will go on TV and promise to leave the country if their horse loses it'll really be great! Thanks for turning me on to Zenyatta, Babe. She's fucking great. That move she made in the Hirsch was unbelievable. It looked like she was just gonna knock every horse out of her way but she went from 5th to 2nd in the blink of an eye and then she ran down Model in the next blink. Model looked like a hobby horse next to that monster, Zenyatta.

[trumad]

35. OK Snark----but not the best I've seen in the sports section....

Listen----- I say hype the shit out of this possible race and use a few prep races to get there. It's kind of like boxing-----if BB is using easy races to get to the big show and the big payoff, so be it. I see Dutrow working here and so far it's working.

It's got us smack talking each other and I'm sure that will intensify..... I personally love that and will back BB to the end.

So bring it.;-)

[aaronbees]

45. Hey, I'll bring it....

... if Curlin and BB bring it. I'm less confident they'll face off now. Woodward would've been a golden opportunity, but it seems Team Brown would rather sift for a soft spot. ;)