One more example of why we can't always trust statistics

[proud2BlibKansan]

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Students who transfer to other districts aren't considered dropouts, and previously, the district could merely report that x number of students transferred out of the KCMSD each year. But last fall, Missouri's Department of Education changed their standards. If the school district couldn't prove where each student went -- which means providing the name of the student's new school and the exact dates of departure and re-enrollment -- then that student was classified as a dropout.

Finding out about the new rules in March 2008 was "like if it were the last two minutes of the Super Bowl and they tell you that now, the end zone is in a different spot," says Michelle Metje, the District's Coordinator of Transition Services. She keeps track of attendance at Kansas City's 62 public schools. Until this year, Kansas City District's records were poorly kept, Metje says."This time last year, we didn't know where 2,500 kids were."

Her staff was "devastated."

The state gave the KCMSD a grace period: If they could document where the kids went, Kansas City's 2008 dropout rate could be amended, Metje says. So she coordinated what she calls an "emergency fire drill" to fix the KCMSD's records. She and her staff of Student Data Analysts (SDAs) started by visiting all 62 schools and physically pulling every transcript request that transferring students filed.

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By the end of summer, the state amended the District's 2007-2008 dropout rate from 42 percent to 21 percent.

more . . . http://blogs.pitch.com/plog/2009/04/kcs_dropout_rate_first_the_goo.php

[dalaigh lllama]

1. "There are lies, damn lies, and statistics"

That was in the foreword of a book we used in college way back when. I think it's one of Twain's IIRC. The book was "How to Lie With Statistics" and I haven't trusted stats without the actual numbers since.

[RaleighNCDUer]

4. I used the same book in my statistics class, also way back when.

It's led me to mistrust all polling unless I could see the raw data, the methodology, the exact wording of the polling questions, etc.

I liked the examples they gave where slightly different wording produced dramatically different results.

[hobbit709]

2. "There's lies, damned lies, and statistics"

[cloudbase]

3. That isn't statistics,

that's bad policy dressed up as statistics.

[BR_Parkway]

5. Wow, how long was it that they couldn't tell where 2,500 students

were? Can't imagine the education they might have missed out on if no one was paying attention.

[LWolf]

7. When a student transfers out of a district,

we don't know where they're going unless their parents happened to mention it, until we get a request for their records. Then we send the records on. I don't know if there is a place that the date and destination is recorded, since the district no longer keeps any record of that student.

I know I've asked my office staff where some of my students have gone; often, at the end of the year, I find things they left behind, and I want to send it on to them.

If they are not in our district, our office staff doesn't know.

[southerncrone]

6. This whole problem could be taken care of if the way we account for students was changed.

A lot of problems in education today stem from attendance problems.
Schools need to do a better job of finding out why students are absent on a daily basis for starters. This way the truancy officer can get on their trail while it's still hot. But this requires manpower and.......well, you know, $.

Instead of dropping out of school 1, traipsing off into the sunset, and expecting school 2 to request transcripts to account for WHERE the student is, we should not allow a student to drop out of school 1 until they ENROLL in school 2. Then "release" the student to school 2. This way there is never a gap between schools where a student can disappear. School 1, if checking on absences daily, would be aware that a kid isn't where they are supposed to be & immediately investigate.

This would protect a lot of kids who are victims of abduction & abuse. If parents knew that the school was investigating why "little Johnny or Susie" wasn't in school, they would make sure the kids got there. As it stands now, attendance is often hit or miss, & these kids are the very ones who suffer academically, not to mention it disrupts the system for the others.