Finland: link between swine flu shot, narcolepsy

[mhatrw]

Source: Associated Press

Finnish researchers have found an increased risk of narcolepsy among 4 to 19-year-olds who were given swine flu shots, a government health agency said Tuesday. A preliminary study by the National Narcolepsy Task Force indicates that children vaccinated with Pandemrix "contributed to the observed increase in incidence of narcolepsy" compared to those who were not vaccinated in the same age group, it said.

The agency said, however, that the increase likely was caused "by joint effect of the vaccine and some other factor," and added that it would have to conduct more research as similar increases in narcolepsy cases have not been reported in other countries using the vaccine.

Pandemrix shots were made for the swine flu pandemic, and it is not clear how many people would still be receiving them since the usual flu shot now includes the swine flu strain. In Finland, health personnel stopped administering Pandemrix in August 2010 when concerns were first voiced about the vaccine. ...

"Based on the preliminary analyses, the risk of falling ill with narcolepsy among those vaccinated in the 4-19 years age group was nine-fold in comparison to those unvaccinated in the same age group," the study said.

Read more: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jQA97HTObCEZvdt3LFA2ZE1Ml67Q?docId=f6ec2c9dab5a47979afd14a401946553

[Name removed]

1. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[OhioChick]

2. Speaking of flu-related shots....

Possible increase in seizures after flu vaccine

http://www.newsnet5.com/dpp/news/health/possible-increase-in-seizures-after-flu-vaccine

[jpak]

3. *YAWN*

:D

[HelenWheels]

4. Gullian-Barre Syndrome

In 1976 many people,including me, received the swine flu vaccine. A friend of mine developed Gullian-Barre syndrome shortly after receiving the vaccine. He died one month later. This type of reaction was very rare but it did happen to a few people.

[trotsky]

7. And some people develop Guillian-Barre from the flu itself. Or some other infection.

Normal rate of GBS in the population: 1-2 per 100,000.

Rate of GBS in flu vaccine recipients: 1 per 1,000,000.

[mhatrw]

8. Which is a good reason to inject billions of currently healthy people with the

influenza virus annually?

Doesn't this increase the average person's exposure to this putative causative agent?

If 1 per 1,000,00 vaccine recipients gets GBS, doesn't that number change to about 1 in 20,000 if one dutifully gets in line for an influenza vaccination every year for 50 years?

[laconicsax]

9. LOL!

:spray:

Yes. That's exactly how statistics work!

:rofl:

[mhatrw]

10. OK. Then you run the numbers for us and get back to us with the correct risk estimate.

If every million or so vaccinations results in one extra case of GBS, then why wouldn't getting an annual flu shot for 50 years (and sometimes two a year) increase one's risk of contracting GBS to a value much more likely than one in a million?

[Name removed]

11. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[trotsky]

12. No, but it's a great reason to serve red herring!

Yum!

On edit: And by the way, no, statistics don't work like that. If they did, then because you have a 1 in 2 chance of getting heads when you flip a coin, if you flip it and get tails the first time, you'd then be 100% assured of getting heads the next. Does it work like that? Hmm?

[mhatrw]

18. Yet another who does not understand the very basics of probability.

1 - (999,999/1,000,000)^50 = .000049998775

If we round this to .00005, that's 1/20,000 or 1 in 20,000.

That's Probability 101. You fail.

[trotsky]

25. I will repeat what laconicsax told you above:

The problem is that you don't understand that the chances of 1:1,000,000 for GBS isn't determined the same way as the chances of a specific outcome from rolling a die.

[laconicsax]

27. I'd like to add something I forgot to mention.

In addition to the problem I noted (thankfully quoted by trotsky before the subthread got deleted), you aren't calculating the probability of getting GBS after 50 years of vaccination, but the probability of finding someone who did get GBS from a pool of 50 people.

I had hoped that you'd stumble across this mistake of yours on your own, but since the subthread has been deleted, I'll just spell it out for you. If you still have questions, go ask your statistics professor.

[DeSwiss]

5. K&R n/t

[mhatrw]

6. Health Official: Swine Flu Vaccinations for Children Possibly a Mistake

http://www.yle.fi/uutiset/news/2011/01/health_official_swine_flu_vaccinations_for_children_possibly_a_mistake_2326931.html

The Chief Medical Officer of Finland's National Public Health Institute has conceded that it may have been unnecessary to vaccinate children and young people against swine flu. Dr Terhi Kilpi told the Väli-Suomi newspaper group's Sunday newspaper supplement that perhaps the vaccine should not have been given to 5-20 year-olds.

Kilpi said that she would no longer recommends the vaccination for this age group. She added that if she had known of the potential consequences, she would have not inoculated 5-20 year-olds.

"A year ago, the current understanding was that the swine flu was a danger specifically for the young. At that time there was not yet any reason to suspect serious side effects to the vaccine," said Kilpi.

The vaccine is now suspected to be linked to an increase in the number of cases of narcolepsy affecting children and young people in Finland, Sweden and Iceland. In Finland, 52 children have been diagnosed with narcolepsy.

[HuckleB]

13. Follow up on Pandemrix and Narcolepsy

http://theness.com/neurologicablog/?p=2794

"...

These results are intriguing, but should be considered preliminary. Epidemiology is a complex endeavor, and there are lots of wrinkles to this data. The increased risk of narcolepsy was only seen within a certain age range. In Iceland (but not Sweden or Finland) the increase in narcolepsy was also seen in those who were not vaccinated. And further, other countries that also used the Pandemrix vaccine have seen no increase narcolepsy, including Norway, the UK, Germany, and Canada.

Overall we have a very inconsistent pattern. The vaccine does not appear to be a consistent or unique risk factor for narcolepsy in these populations. The task force concludes from this that there must be another factor that is combining with the vaccine to increase the risk. This is logically possible, but until this factor X is identified it remains speculation.

...

Such is the nature of epidemiology, or observational studies. Variables are not controlled for and confounding factors are always a possibility. That does not mean that observational data is not useful or cannot be definitive – but it requires careful, thoughtful, and thorough collection and analysis of data from multiple different angles. The data we have so far from Finland is very preliminary, and generates more questions than answers. There is certainly sufficient cause for caution and further analysis. But at this point I would not be surprised by any particular outcome, since the data can be interpreted in many ways.

It will be interesting to see what the final outcome of this story is. These cases are always like mystery investigations, and the outcomes are often very interesting and can differ greatly from initial impressions. I would not be surprised if it turns out to be a real effect of the Pandemrix vaccine. Vaccines are not without risk, although over the decades the risks have proven to be very small and vastly outweighed by the benefits. Obviously it would be hugely useful to identify which ingredient was the culprit and exactly how it triggered narcolepsy in this population."

----------------------------


It's best to read the whole piece, of course. This piece seems to give the more context to this matter than the other pieces I've seen presented at DU so far.

[trotsky]

14. Why read the whole thing...

when quoting just a selected part of it will support my agenda?

[HuckleB]

15. You mean these parts?

"A narcolepsy task force was formed in Finland, and now we have their ... report.

They conclude that ... there is a connection ...

and ... a real effect of the Pandemrix vaccine. Vaccines are not without risk."

[trotsky]

16. Exactly! n/t

[laconicsax]

17. LOL!

You're not trying hard enough:

Of the study, the authors wrote, "These results are intriguing...The increased risk of narcolepsy was seen...in Iceland...Sweden [and] Finland. The increase in narcolepsy was...seen in those who were [fully and partially] vaccinated. And further, other countries that also used the Pandemrix vaccine have seen [increased] narcolepsy, including Norway, the UK, Germany, and Canada."

See what a little more effort can do? We now have a global problem of Pandemrix causing narcolepsy!

[HuckleB]

19. Great.

Your quote is bound to be found on Age of Autism within the week.

;)

[laconicsax]

24. That's right, I forgot that in those parts, all adverse reactions are either autism or death. n/t

[HuckleB]

26. That's right. Now how can you sleep at night?

[laconicsax]

28. In a bed made of "pharma" payouts, of course.

You'd think that nickles and dimes from the 15 cents saved per flu jab wouldn't be terribly comfortable in a mattress, but when you add a mixture of thimerosal and children's tears, it's probably more comfortable than what the illuminati and lizard people have.

[mhatrw]

20. Could the unknown risk factor X possibly be genetics? Ya think?

I love you guys. Every study that claims any specific vaccine is safe and/or effective is 100% wonderful. It doesn't matter if it is a case controlled study done on an illness that is not rare! It's all gold, Jerry! Pure gold! No mention is ever made of the limitations of these studies. Anyone who makes any mention of the limitations of these studies is dismissed as an "anti-vax" crank.

But let a peer reviewed, published study report any results that call into question the efficacy or safety of vaccines in any way, and these exact same questions are highlighted and bandied about by posting twins (or triplets) as if EVERY SCIENTIFIC STUDY did not have similar questions attached to it.

Science is an evolving process. Studies are only as good as their methods and results. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. Further scientific study is ALWAYS helpful. Well, duh. That is science. It is not religion. Nothing is set in stone. Later studies can ALWAYS overturn earlier studies if they have more and better data, use superior methodologies and/or offer better explanations for the measured results.

But if the study says ANYTHING that calls into question ANY vaccine or vaccine ingredient, this universal characteristic of all scientific studies is always treated as breaking news by the ubiquitous defenders of vaccination.

[HuckleB]

21. And now you're on to the strawman line of logical fallacies.

And you included a cute ad hominem in their to boot.

Interestingly, you have also chosen to ignore your well-known habit of posting very selective studies, while ignoring the whole.

In other words, nice try.

PS: You do realize that your strawman is completely fictional? Try reading the SBM piece, and then push that strawman some more.

:rofl:

[mhatrw]

22. LOL

http://www.yle.fi/uutiset/news/2011/01/health_official_swine_flu_vaccinations_for_children_possibly_a_mistake_2326931.html

The Chief Medical Officer of Finland's National Public Health Institute has conceded that it may have been unnecessary to vaccinate children and young people against swine flu. Dr Terhi Kilpi told the Väli-Suomi newspaper group's Sunday newspaper supplement that perhaps the vaccine should not have been given to 5-20 year-olds.

Kilpi said that she no longer recommends the vaccination for this age group. She added that if she had known of the potential consequences, she would have not inoculated 5-20 year-olds.

"A year ago, the current understanding was that the swine flu was a danger specifically for the young. At that time there was not yet any reason to suspect serious side effects to the vaccine," said Kilpi.

The vaccine is now suspected to be linked to an increase in the number of cases of narcolepsy affecting children and young people in Finland, Sweden and Iceland. In Finland, 52 children have been diagnosed with narcolepsy.

[HuckleB]

23. And your response is to repeat something you've already posted?

The opinion of one individual?

:rofl: