Every summer for the past 10 years, I have worked as a seasonal naturalist (Park Ranger) in Yellowstone National Park.
Yellowstone's major eruptions being “like clockwork” and another one “due any day” are extreme exaggerations.
Here's a slide that is in the evening program that I present at the Old Faithful Visitor Center and Norris Campground Amphitheater.
As you can see on the slide, along the track of the Yellowstone Hot spot there have been eleven catastrophic eruptions and thousands of lava flows in the past 16.1 million years.
Before the latest, more accurate measurements were taken, the dates given for the past three catastrophic eruptions had been 600KYA, 1.2 MYA & 1.8 MYA.
Three eruption dates gives TWO intervals.
That’s not three intervals, that’s two intervals.
The fact that it is 600KY since the last eruption date is irrelevant, because it hasn’t erupted again (yet).
If you select the last two intervals out of a total of 10 (remember there have been 11 super eruptions, not just three.) and then predict that the next one will be the same as the last two, you are playing fast and loose with statistics. There’s 16.1 MY divided by 10 intervals = or 1.61 MY average between catastrophic eruptions.
As if that weren’t enough, the latest, (more accurate) measurements have shown that the past three have actually been 640 KYA, 1.3 MYA and 2.1 MYA.
That gives ONE interval of 800KY and ONE of 660KY.
I repeat: “Like clockwork” and “due any day” are extreme exaggerations. It might go off tomorrow, and it might be another million years.
Bob Smith has championed the plume hypothesis for many years, and it is the accepted explanation for what's going on under Yellowstone. (Dare I say "Theory?")
The fact that there's a special on the Discovery Channel tonight and Discovery.com's magazine has an article about Bob Smith's recent presentation is no small coincidence. The article is hype for the show. I intend to watch and tape it. It should be fun.
I'll be driving from PA to Yellowstone and beyond in a few weeks, and I think I have a better chance of surviving the summer in Yellowstone than the traffic on the interstates.