2012: Killer Solar Flares Are a Physical Impossibility

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-superFlares.html

2012: Killer Solar Flares Are a Physical Impossibility

11.10.09

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Given a legitimate need to protect Earth from the most intense forms of space weather – great bursts of electromagnetic energy and particles that can sometimes stream from the sun – some people worry that a gigantic "killer solar flare" could hurl enough energy to destroy Earth. Citing the accurate fact that solar activity is currently ramping up in its standard 11-year cycle, there are those who believe that 2012 could be coincident with such a flare.

But this same solar cycle has occurred over millennia. Anyone over the age of 11 has already lived through such a solar maximum with no harm. In addition, the next solar maximum is predicted to occur in late 2013 or early 2014, not 2012.

Most importantly, however, there simply isn't enough energy in the sun to send a killer fireball 93 million miles to destroy Earth.

This is not to say that space weather can't affect our planet. The explosive heat of a solar flare can't make it all the way to our globe, but electromagnetic radiation and energetic particles certainly can. Solar flares can temporarily alter the upper atmosphere creating disruptions with signal transmission from, say, a GPS satellite to Earth causing it to be off by many yards. Another phenomenon produced by the sun could be even more disruptive. Known as a coronal mass ejection (CME), these solar explosions propel bursts of particles and electromagnetic fluctuations into Earth's atmosphere. Those fluctuations could induce electric fluctuations at ground level that could blow out transformers in power grids. The CME's particles can also collide with crucial electronics onboard a satellite and disrupt its systems.

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(Video available at link.)

[Warpy]

1. However, they're very likely should the planet lose its molten mantle

which is what keeps the electrical field strong enough to deflect anything erupting from the sun.

Everything on Mars, however, would need to be heavily shielded including any human explorers.

[AlecBGreen]

2. outer core, not mantle

The mantle is superheated, solid rock.

The outer core is liquid metal (mostly iron & nickel) that spins, creating a magnetic field.

Both of the above are best estimates since no one has been down there to see ;) We DO have lots of seismic and other data to back up these hypotheses.

[saras]

3. "Destroy earth" is rather subjective

As far as I know, anyone who has ever talked with any seriousness about the danger of solar activity is referring to a recurrence of the 1859 event, which would have a drastically greater impact on our civilization than it did on the world then. Picture most of our power grid, telephone, internet, and other wired communication backbone not merely failing, but blowing equipment and going up in flames. Picture most radio (i.e. wireless internet, cell phones, emergency communications, GPS, remote control anything, from missiles to garage door openers, failing at the same time. And picture it lasting for days or weeks.

Although the sunspot cycle happens every 11 years, it does NOT happen every 11 years, or on any predictable cycle, that the very narrow jet from a solar ejection is pointed directly at where the earth will be when the jet arrives. And given that the 1859 event was the result of two CMEs in a row, both pointed in exactly the right direction,

The worst case is, of course, extremely unlikely.

But is there anyone sane, anywhere, who believes a solar flare will "destroy the earth" in the sense of frying all the life off of it or something? Or is this a response to some right-wing crazy? (although I suppose if it strips a substantial portion of the ionosphere that it could get pretty toasty for a while).

[Chemisse]

4. This is the first I have heard of such a fear.

So it must have come from the RW crazy crowd.

I am a mite nervous about the destruction of the electric grid potential. If such a thing happened, it could take many months to repair the infrastructure - maybe longer with the handicaps produced by an inability to communicate around the nation.

[bananas]

6. Yes, it could also cause multiple simultaneous Fukushimas

As you said, the real concern is the effect on electrical systems, not the direct effects of the flare.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x313974

http://www.nucpros.com/content/commission-assess-threat-united-states-electromagnetic-pulse-emp-attack

Commission to Assess the Threat. to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack
Submitted by NUCBIZ on October 17, 2011 - 15:10
By Bob Meyer

Dr. William Graham, the former Science Advisor to the President and Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy in the Executive Office of the President from 1986 to 1989 and Chairman of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from EMP Attack has written to the Chairman of the NRC to urge NRC further assessmets of EMP storms or attacks on nuclear power plants. The letter urges the NRC to include the EMP Attack consequences into the Fukushima assessment and change plans. This letter may want to be factored in the build of new plants.

The Commission to assess EMP was established by Congress through Title X, National Defense Authorization Act for Fixcal Year 2006.

This letter stated that an EMP can be generated naturally by a solar flare or coronal mass ejection from the Sun, which can produce a great geomagnetic storm on the Earth similar to some aspects of an EMP attack from a high-yield nuclear weapon, with similar catastrophic consequences. A great geomagnetic storm could cause the collapse of the electric grid and other critical infrastructures - transportation, communications, banking and finance, food and water-for a protracted period of months or years. A study by the National Academy of Sciences independently confirmed the EMP Commission's assessment that, if a great geomagnetic storm like the 1859 Carrington Event recurred today, recovery of the national electric power grid would take 4 to 10 years.

Such an event could also cause operators of the 108 nuclear plants in the United States to lose the ability to perform a safe, controlled shutdown of their power reactors, producing a Fukushima-like disaster on a large scale.

<snip>

[didact]

8. It was that dumbass 2012 movie...

But is there anyone sane, anywhere, who believes a solar flare will "destroy the earth" in the sense of frying all the life off of it or something?

>> It was that dumbass 2012 movie that showed the fireball envelop the planet. There are not too many things that could destroy the "Earth"...maybe all the life on her, but not the planet itself.

[NMMNG]

5. So Larry Niven's premise was entirely impossible

But Inconstant Moon is still a great piece of sci-fi.

[krispos42]

7. That was a pretty good story. n/t