To everyone going to the NH Jefferson-Jackson event tomorrow:

[Island Blue]

HAVE A GREAT TIME! :bounce:

Looking forward to everyone's stories and photos!

[_dynamicdems]

1. Thanks! I think it is going to be a fun event!

NH loves JK! And the other speakers are going to be fantastic too. This is being broadcast on C-Span so you might get to see us milling about or eating rubber chicken. Sort of a side bonus to watching JK. :7

[wisteria]

2. thanks! n/t

[globalvillage]

3. Thanks.

I'm at the airport now.
:-)
Wish you were coming, too.

[TayTay]

4. I guess this is a sort of kick-off for the Senator for '08

Kerry visits New Hampshire to woo hesitant supporters
By James W. Pindell, Globe Correspondent | October 13, 2006

CONCORD, N.H. -- In exploring a second presidential run, Senator John F. Kerry has raised millions in campaign funds, traveled tirelessly, and demonstrated leadership on several key issues in the Senate.

But as he journeys to New Hampshire tonight to give what is arguably his most important political speech so far in preparation for the 2008 campaign, he finds an audience less receptive to the idea of a Kerry for President campaign than four years ago.

In 2002, Kerry was able to use his geographical proximity to the Granite State, his perceived front-runner status, and an argument that he was the most electable Democrat to persuade influential New Hampshire Senate Democratic leader Sylvia Larsen to be the first person to endorse him.

He was also able to earn the advice of moderate Democrats Judy Reardon, who was a close adviser to former Governor Jeanne Shaheen; former state party chairman Joe Keefe; and Chris Gallagher, who was a cochairman of Bill Clinton's campaign. At the same time Kerry was receiving endorsements from prominent liberal state senators such as Burt Cohen and Iris Estabrook.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2006/10/13/kerry_visits_new_hampshire_to_woo_hesitant_supporters/

Hmmm, New Hampshire is a work in progress. However, Sen. Kerry is in the top 4, which is not bad. We shall see how this speech plays in the room tonight. Keep your fingers crossed.

[Mass]

5. This poll has a MOE of about 7 %, so basically Kerry is tied for second

place.

Certainly, it is a work on progress, I agree. At this point, the race for the anti-Hillary is between 3 people : Kerry, Gore, and Edwards, and the NH poll confirms there are no other players (less than 4 % for all the other candidates - 17 % undecided).

One of the unknown is whether Gore will run or not and whom his supporters will support. The other unknown is pretty much the same as last time: who will people think will be the best president: last time, between Kerry and Edwards, people did not hesitate once they really had to choose. Who knows what will happen this time.

At this point, his main challenge is to show he can be a serious player and to counter the argument that the Democrats need a fresh face. The fact that Gore and him are tied in this poll is a good appreciation of the problem. There are about 20 % of people who do not believe the argument that a new face is needed. It is a good start to build on.

[TayTay]

6. And the dinner sold out.

Nothing says lovng like a check. And the dinner sold out, so that is not nothing.

[Mass]

7. I found interesting the difference between this article and the Globe

article earlier this week about Kerry.

While I am sure that the argument about a fresh face should not be dismissed (some people are definitively going to fall for it), the earlier article was able to find Kerry's backers in NH that followed him from 04 to 08 and this one cannot. Come on! This is ridiculous.

The simple fact that the dinner is sold out is a sign that there is an interest in Kerry in NH.

BTW, here is the poll. They have to be joking. They take subsamples out of a population of 200 people! Some of their subsamples have less than 20 people (MOE > 20 %).

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/primary101206.pdf

[TayTay]

8. The only really relevent thing about that poll

is that they have a top 4. The numbers will change over the course of the next year or so. I think the truth of that article is that NH is wary of jumping on board again. The good news about the earlier article is that Massachusetts folks are on board. (You don't want trouble at home. Now, if Mass gets a Dem Gov, then that much more is right with the world.)

[beachmom]

10. So is Wes Clark just an internet phenomenon?

I always read about people loving him, but it doesn't sound like he's registering much support in the real world. Will that change?

It really sounds like Kerry vs. Edwards for the anti-Hillary spot (Gore isn't going to run). I have to be honest that I cannot understand how people can take someone with so little experience, ESPECIALLY foreign policy, so seriously. Giving a good stump speech does not a president make. JE is a lightweight, and does not have the resume for the job. Why do people not get that?

I was looking at dKos last night, and there is a Hillary supporter named FrancisLHolland who put out a diary saying Edwards' brand of helping the poor is a loser with the general electorate because nobody wants to be thought of as poor. There were some interesting ideas in there; problem is Francis is a shill for Hillary, and has repeatedly insulted Kerry, too. He is universally loathed on Kos, almost to troll status -- I think Kerry has a better balance there. He has a good plethora of supporters while not being TOO popular there (Kos is the kiss of death IMO). Edwards, Gore, and Clark are the big stars there. Feingold doesn't seem to be getting much traction. I think people recognize that he is absolutely unelectable.

If Gore were to run, btw, then that bodes badly for Kerry and good for Hillary. She'll be able to divide and conquer.

[Mass]

12. Clark is lacking name recognition. Most people in the real world

only know him as a pundit on Fox. It is unfair as he is certainly better qualified than Edwards, but it is what it is.

I think there is nothing bad talking about poverty, but I dont like what Edwards says. It is too much the same meme Clinton adopted: poor people have to be responsible (as if it was their fault that they are poor), and many of his solutions seem just plainly simplistic (certainly, teen pregnancy is not a great thing, but I dont think it is the same problem when you are rich and when you are already poor. That a poor kid is able to go to college is great, but more often than not, it is too late to intervene at college time. Early education, healthcare, a good house, making sure that kids do not go to school on an empty stomach and that they get the aid they need for their homework are a necessary first step that must be emphasized or helping a kid to go to college will be relatively useless).

In addition, many of his solutions consist in making sure that middleclass people do not fall into poverty, and, while it is important, it will not help people who are already poor.

I do not think there is a place for Gore AND Kerry in this primary, but I also seriously doubt that Gore will run. I know some of his supporters want to turn what he says upside-down in order to keep some hope (and I understand that - I would do the same thing if Kerry was saying he will not run, but may be will one day).

[karynnj]

14. That is a disaster of a study

Those differences are amazing. The other thing they ignore is that Edwards only got 12% of the vote in 2004 - Kerry got more than 3 times as much. I suspect Edwards had far fewer name supporters, so keeping them is easier and not sufficient. It is more interesting to me - given the obvious twist of the article - that they haven't found Kerry people who committed to others. Being uncertain at this point is not bad. It's early.

(The CSPAN NH Kerry events have been uniformly warm - they likely need only one thing - a sense he can win.)

[TayTay]

16. Remember the Globe article just interviewed insiders

and was talking to elected NH officials. Remember the roller coaster that '03-'04 was? Same thing, only different. (As my kids were fond of saying.)

The polls will go up and down. The important thing is to get visible, do the work and come up with some organization and workers on the ground. It is just about the right time for that, if not late. (Speaking of which, who would Gore get now. People are choising up sides and incuring debts of the '06 midterms and other races. What is Gore expecting, some sort of petition from the voters that he step in? That's insulting and not going to happen.)

[karynnj]

25. He would still have a tough primary

Even if a group of proffessionals begged him to run with them as a team and had money committments, Gore would still have a nasty primary to run. The Clintons will hit hard and I assume Edwards would too. He would also have Kerry to defeat.

I agree that he would be working towards it now - if he was really interested. No one will get it on a silver platter.

[Democrafty]

22. It struck me in some earlier polls

that Kerry and Edwards are frequently in a statistical tie. I don't have links handy right now, but has anyone else noticed this?

[karynnj]

24. I did - the only one I saw where they were clearly different was the Iowa

poll. My problem with that one was that it was "likely caucus goers". In past years, it has been pretty clear that that is extememly hard to model - the results other than in open and shut years are not very good.

More importantly, in a state that waits till they meet the candidate to commit, Edwards has been there at least 4 times as much. You also just had Elizabeth's book with her sly jabs at Kerry. (By the way, I did think of a good answer if Elizabeth did make the comment on Teresa commenting on her doctor - Teresa very likely saved her own hushband's life (or at least health) by her ability to look at medical information and ask questions. Would I want a friend like that to comment if she saw something that looked less good than it could be - yeah. Even a doctor can be wrong - but it's always better to check things out.)

My guess is that some of this could get overplayed. EE's comment that they had to make due on $28,000 when they started in 1976 is strange. I live in a more expensive area and was a successful middle to upper middle class person with a salary of $18,000. It's only by their later standards that that was poor.

[fedupinBushcountry]

9. Someone special is going to be in the room

with the Senator.

Check this out

http://www.johnkerry.com/video/flash/101206_nhth.html

Have a wonderful time, we will be watching on C-Span.

[beachmom]

13. Hey Fedup -- what is the exact schedule for C-SPAN?

Yesterday, I thought it was at 8 PM on C-SPAN, but in this BG article, it said 7 PM on C-SPAN2.

Thanks for the link!

[fedupinBushcountry]

17. It says

8 p.m. Live C-Span2

http://inside.c-spanarchives.org:8080/cspan/schedule.csp

Did you JK pictured on the front page of the paper today, of course they have Macacawitz listed still as a contencer in '08.

[beachmom]

19. Oh, yeah -- he's right there!

Okay, it's definitely going to be McCain on the Republican side. Macacawitz, even if he retains his Senate seat, is damaged goods, and Guiliani is weighed down with a million scandals -- one day ain't going to make up for that.

I still will maintain that Edwards is a lightweight, and people will figure that out over time.

Hillary vs. Kerry.

I look forward to the debate, and let primary voters decide.

[karynnj]

15. That is really cool

She seems pretty supporitive.

[fedupinBushcountry]

18. Delete

[karynnj]

20. I wasn't commenting on the special guest

whose identity you didn't disclose, so that people would get it from the link. The "special guest" is really really special and certainly supports the Senator.

[fedupinBushcountry]

21. Gotcha

;-)

[_dynamicdems]

11. Sounds like Kerry is getting TOO much attention for the comfort level

of some folks.

Their snark aside: we have witnessed the enthusiasm firsthand.

And let me tell you: he's popular in NH. I'm really hoping for a Paul Hodes Congressional race victory against Charlie Bass. Remember his speech in Nashua, NH? He's apparently a strong Kerry supporter, so that would help lots in '08. And you know Kerry's campaigned for Carol Shea-Porter, the Congressional candidate up against Jeb Bradley.

[politicasista]

23. Have fun everyone

:hi: