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Strategic Disconnection by Larry Johnson

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Coexist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-09-06 07:47 AM
Original message
Strategic Disconnection by Larry Johnson
After a day or two on the base I began to grasp why the female Colonel conked out so quick on the flight in—the work pace is exhausting. The US soldiers, Marines, Navy, and Air Force personnel working on these bases are busting ass 24 hours a day, seven days a week. I slept in a 12 man wooden cabin outfitted with bunk beds. During the week I was in Iraq the lights in that building were turned on only twice. They were left off because someone was almost always sleeping. I felt like a hooker on spring break—I spent the week sleeping with men I did not know (but we were in separate bunks). I was going to bed around 2 in the morning and waking up around 0730 hours. Adrenaline in new surroundings can keep one moving.

<snip>
But the safety I felt on the base is not the experience of the average Iraqi or the US soldier sent to move among the Iraqi people. Outside the security of the US military bases the civil war is raging. While we do not see the conventional armies we normally associate with our own Civil War, the fact is that Shias and Sunnis are locked in a death match.

<snip>
The sad truth is that we are not fighting an effective counter insurgency campaign. We treat the threat as simply a terrorist threat and hope that if we kill enough of Zarqawi’s leaders and followers that the violence will subside. That was the belief 15 months ago. Since then our forces have carried out many dramatic and effective counter terrorist operations. Yet, as of June 2006, the number of attacks continue to increase. The trend line is up and the victims tend to be the average Iraqis that healthy communities rely on to rebuild public order.

<snip>
I believe our best course of action, at this juncture, is to step out of the way and let the shias and sunnis fight it out. That is a harsh solution, but our presence in Iraq appears to be providing aspiring jihadists the motive and means to pursue their ambition. If left to themselves, we might have more flexibility in working behind intermediaries and thru cutouts in order to get Iraq back on its feet. What we have right now are US bases that are little more than feudal castles. We provide safety to those inside but cannot provide the security and services required for normal political life.

more...


When I first heard about Biden suggesting that maybe Iraq should be carved up into three parts - I thought "who are we to do something like that." Maybe Iraq is too sectarian to be held together by anything less than a dictator with an iron fist. Maybe it should be allowed to find its natural borders by itself.
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Jim__ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-09-06 07:57 AM
Response to Original message
1. Having unleashed the blood bath in Iraq, can we now just say,
"They have to work it out for themselves"? Or, do we have an obligation to restore some semblance of order and give them a chance to work it out for themselves starting from a fairly stable point?

I don't think we can restore order. We may be able to pull together an international coalition to separate the factions and restore some order.

Having started this, I really don't think we can just walk away in the middle of a blood bath.
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Teaser Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-09-06 08:11 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. The soldiers lied into war there
didn't unleash shit. They have ZERO responsibility to Iraq.

I was opposed to the war. I have ZERO responsibility to help Iraq fix itself. My tax money has ZERO responsibility to help fix Iraq.
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DinahMoeHum Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-09-06 08:16 AM
Response to Original message
3. Your last two sentences spell out the crux of the whole problem. . .
"Maybe Iraq is too sectarian to be held together by anything less than a dictator with an iron fist. Maybe it should be allowed to find its natural borders by itself."

Iraq, like the former Yugoslavia, never really was a country to begin with. It was created by the British and the French in the aftermath of World War I, with artificial borders.

The former Yugoslavia was also held together only through a strongman, Josip Broz Tito, and when he left the scene, the area splintered back into "tribal factions", ie. Serbs, Bosnians, Croatians, etc.

It would not shock me to see Iraq go that way as well.

:shrug:
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HereSince1628 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-09-06 08:34 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Did the Neocons successfully play a win-win in Iraq?
Civil war leaves Iraq eating itself alive, more a threat to itself than Israel.

Dividing the nation into 3 entities (but without including all their aspired territory) eliminates Iraq as a threat to Israel.
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Coexist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-09-06 08:35 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. I have a feeling we will find that out soon.
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Coexist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-09-06 04:33 PM
Response to Original message
6. kicking cuz Larry kicked ass at CIA Leak panel today!
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Jigarotta Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-09-06 04:38 PM
Response to Original message
7. larry's gender thing made my eyebrow lift a bit.
female colonel, (would he have said male colonel?) hooker thingie.
it really made me uninterested.
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Coexist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-09-06 04:43 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. "Valerie must be a great clairvoyant"
"So Joe could spring into action"
"I wish we were making this crap up!"

Those were my personal favorites from today.


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