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I doubt that Iran itself would ever launch a nuclear weapon. They have a very different worldview from us but that doesn't make them stupid. If Iran were to use a nuclear weapon they know that the hammer would come down hard and fast, not just from condemnation of the international community but direct reprisal, whether it be from Israel or the U.S. in the form of nuclear bombs dropping on them...
That said, I don't think it would be entirely unlikely for Iran to share their nuclear technology. Heck we were frightened what would happen to the excess Soviet nuclear weapons that were lodged in the Ukraine, Kazakstan, and other former Soviet republics. Why wouldn't we be frightened about Iran. Is their security far suprerior to that of Russia, with U.S. and U.N. monitors? Iran, without being monitored, could deveop a nuclear bomb, and then very easily with or without an order from their government see one of those bombs fall into the hands of Al Qaeda or another terrorist organization.
These might sound like RW talking points, but it's true. The Republicans put us in a very tough spot right now. After 9/11 we had most of the worlds sympathy, including the muslim world. That's now gone. It's been gone for awhile. Their policies have created more terrorism, and made more people hate us and willing to find those nuclear bombs and use them on us. We're far less safe now than we were 6 years go. The fact is that if Iran were to get a nuclear bomb, while I doubt they would directly use it, I don't trust that internally someone wouldn't get one of those bombs to a terrorist organization. I feel the same way about North Korea, and Pakistan honestly.
So what do we do? I think any direct physical intervention would just drum up more anger and if anything delay the inevitable.
I think our entire policy needs to shift. I think we have some hard decisions to make, but mainly we need to stop poking the bear and complaining that the bear is swiping back at us. If we poke at someone, they're gonna eventually poke back. We don't need to become supplicant to them, but we need to respect all other countries, and quit treating them with disdain. It'll be a long hard slog, and we'll probably take a couple shots along the way, but it's the only path to lasting peace and prosperity for everyone.
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