Two years ago Boyda ran against Ryun and lost by 15%. She's running neck and neck with him this time. And at least the DCCC has noticed. They started running ads on her behalf last week.
10.16.2006
Today, well respected political prognisticator Charlie Cook confirmed that a Boyda victory is not the stuff of fantasy. His rankings of the 50 Most Competitive House Races have been expanded to 60, and the Boyda/Ryun matchup slips in at number 59:
With apologies to our editors, we're expanding the list to 60 races. At this point at least that many are in play and, frankly, we could have gone to 75. Part of this field expansion is due to Democrats getting more fired up and therefore coming home earlier in polling. So, for instance, in a place like Kansas-02, the Democrat already has 41 percent compared to the incumbent Republican's 45 percent. The undecideds are probably too Republican for the Democrat to win, but still, the numbers aren't lying right now.
Unfortunately, the poll itself is behind the site's subscription-only firewall. But a few things are evident:
1) This isn't a Boyda internal poll. The two internals released by her campaign have showed the matchup at 41.2/42.5 and 42.6/40 (Ryun/Boyda), respectively. As far as I know, Cook only uses independent polls in his rankings. This means there is for the first time independent confirmation that the race is a tossup--the numbers can't be dismissed as a Boyda campaign trick.
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3) I disagree with Cook on one point: the high number of undecideds does not work in Ryun's favor. Virtually all of the media coverage of Ryun for the past month has been unfavorable. The mainstream papers have picked up on Ryun's connections to the Foley scandal, and the Cheney visit associates him with the toxic Bush administration. Whether or not Boyda has aggressively made the case, everything about Ryun screams "more of the same," and voters can easily pick up on that.
http://siegementality.blogspot.com/2006/10/pundits-take-notice-of-ks-02.htmlThe only other thing I would add to what the blogger has said is, there are nine Republicans who have defected and that are running as Democrats this time. One of them is on the ticket with our Democratic governor, Kathleen Sebelius. So, the chance for crossover voting from Republicans is better than it was in 2004. Also, the Unaffliated voters seem to be breaking towards Boyda.
Ryun's last minute smear campaign against Boyda in 2004 was that she protested the war in Iraq. He said she was soft on terror. This time, he has avoided mentioning the Iraq War. Boyda also got endorsements from all the VFWs in Kansas this cycle.
Cheney came and stumped for Ryun last month and Bush was here Sunday doing the same thing. They are trying to save the seat of a five-time incumbent. They are scared.
And from an article posted yesterday:
Boyda, Ryun race too close to call one day from electionJOHN MILBURN
Associated Press
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"I'm ready to pronounce Ryun seriously in trouble," said David Rohde, a political scientist at Duke University who watches congressional politics.
Rohde said the Bush "rescue mission" indicates how close a once-safe race for the GOP has become in the 2nd District of eastern Kansas.
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(Ryun in a McDonald's handing out cards to potential voters:)
"Do you have any questions?" Ryun asked.
"Do you have any answers?" the group of four senior citizens quipped back. Mainly, they will be glad when the campaign ads disappear from television.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=153x6105 on edit: anyway, it is a close race and I didn't see it mentioned at the link you provided.
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