Is Bird Flu overhyped? I'm confused.

[henslee]

[The Magistrate]

1. In A Word, Sir: Yes

[GrumpyGreg]

2. I hope so !

[IsItJustMe]

3. Absolutely Yes. Unless you allow your chickens in the house.

[Katherine Brengle]

4. the effects are not, it is serious, but the threat certainly is---

The people most in danger of contracting the illness are people who handle poultry during the slaughtering process and afterwards, I believe.

Contraction risk for ordinary people is pretty small.

[mom cat]

5. Depends on whether you are a bird or play with their heads.

[Lost-in-FL]

6. Pretty sure... overyhyped.

Just to control the masses. And besides, we are all going to dye anyways, someday.

Wait... sniff, sniff... I can't breath!!! :eyes: :eyes:

[SPKrazy]

7. Yes and No

Bird flu as it is, is a bird virus, that has been transmissable to humans from bird to human contact.

As it is understood, the mortality rate after infection is about 50%. Mind you, this is an assumed number because it only takes into account those who are identified as infected. It is entirely possible that a much larger group of people have been infected and only a certain percentage of those infected get really sick. And half of those that get really sick die.

The only way to find that out is to test the blood of a large pool of possible infected persons in an area where avian influenza H5 N1 is prevalent (Asia or Vietnam would be good)

Now, the bad part for birds is that they have to be slaughtered when there is evidence of birds being infected in an area.

The worst possible scenario is for a person, having been infected with H5N1, and having some other strain of the flu at the same time. This is dangerous because viruses can exchange information and cause mutation in this way. This could result in a human to human transmissable virus. If this happens, then all bets are off as to how lethal or non-lethal it would be.

The fear is that it would become a very lethal (based on assumed lethality of H5N1) human to human virus that would be spread easily and rapidly around the world with air travel so common.

Now the virus could also mutate on its own and become transmissable from human to human. Again, it is not known how lethal this virus would be if it mutated. (It could become non lethal)

And of course, the other question is, just how lethal is H5N1 to humans anyway when we really don't know the infection rate vs. the mortality rate other than by assumption and from looking at serious cases that end up seeking treatment (some could just get a little bug, or get sick and not need medical attention, or not)

so it is confusing, there is no clear answer yet.

There is a lot to worry about, but nothing as of yet to panic about.

[CoffeeCat]

8. I'm a bit boggled too...

I've been reading about bird flu for more than a year.

I've been reading the medical journals, reports from the World Health Organization and loads of scientific information from virologists, doctors and researchers.

However--Rumsfeld and George Schultz stand to gain financially because they are connected to the company that manufactures Tamiflu--one of the only two drugs that has been touted as helpful in fighting off bird flu.

Then, Junior comes along with his discussion of bird flu--and immediately begins talking about martial law.

It is confusing.

My guess? Bird flu is a serious threat. If it mutates and human-->human transmission takes place, there is a good probability that we could have a devastating, worldwide pandemic on our hands. Also true, is that Junior will use this tragedy to do whatever the hell he wants...declare martial law, detain people for no reason, step up his fascist tactics.

Quite possibly--the lack of information is due to BushCo wanting people to be unprepared if an outbreak does happen. That way--bird flu could be like another 9/11--we'd be shocked, fearful and looking to him for leadership--and more willing to sacrifice freedoms.

Just my 2 cents...

[henslee]

12. I think a pandemic could cull thousands of Social Security recipients

from the rolls. A twisted Administration might take advantage of this.

[Avalux]

9. It's confusing.

The threat of a pandemic is real; scientists expect it will happen in the next several years. However - given that threat, the media and our government have chosen to scare us with the information instead of simply informing us.

Because of this, a lot of people go "pfft!" and don't get that it really could happen. Just not until the virus decides to make the shift to human/human transmission. Then we can worry.

[unblock]

10. we should slash aids research and stockpile tamiflu!

why spend money on a real live lethal epidemic when you can freak out about a theoretical potential mutation?

that's the banana republican approach to public health for ya.

[GrumpyGreg]

13. The flu virus is more easily spread than the Aids virus. It could

be a worldwide catastrophe in a very short time.

[unblock]

18. emphasis on COULD BE

the problem is that spending vast sums of money now trying to come up with a vaccine for a virus that DOES NOT EXIST yet is just plain insane.

yes, various forms of influenza have been and will again be massively lethal in the past and will likely be so again. will the next deadly influenza outbreak be bird flu or some other strain? who knows. but current vaccination technology pretty much means you have to have the virus in hand first, then develop the vaccine (which is normally a killed virus or weakened strain -- hard to create when it doesn't exist).

the appropriate way to respond to the worry that avian flu MIGHT mutate into an airborne and lethal form is to fund the infrastructure for researching and developing flu vaccines and preparing for massive flu shot distribution, something the shrub administration has proven itself utterly incompetent at. stockpiling tamiflu is idiotic from a public health perspective, but makes complete sense when you realize how much money rumsfeld will gain as a result.

[The Backlash Cometh]

11. Not at all.

There's an article somewhere that the virus came in on contaminated straw and killed 400 Turkeys from evening to morning. The farmer said they looked healthy at night, the next morning they were all dead. The rest were sickly. He said in a thunderous moment, he understood. The man and his family were immediately under quarantine and he said he felt like a pariah. The police wouldn't venture closer than his mailbox and he was worried because his supplies were dwindling. This happened in France. It's all over Europe and now India.

It will be a disaster for any poultry industry. That's the first problem. The second problem is how they will quarantine the area.

The final concern is if it spreads from person to person. That would be a disaster at a human level.

[Yoda Yada]

14. For now, IMO,...Tamiflu bonanza

...for those who own stock (windfall for Rumsfeld)

I talked with a doctor who specializes in infectious diseases, He said, "I don't think it is what they are making it out to be." These are the points he made:

1. It CANNOT be transmitted human to human yet. It would have to mutate to do that, and viruses WEAKEN when they mutate.

2. The cases we are hearing about are in areas that do not have nearby hospitals or medical centers like we have in America. (Many in rural areas) If it happened here, chances are there would be hospitals and medical staff closeby......in order to immediately start antibiotic treatment.

3. There were NO antibiotics, when they had the pandemic, most of the people died from SECONDARY infection,... which TODAY would be treated with antibiotics.

Can you think of any other diseases that are transmitted from animal to human, but not from human to human? Are we afraid of those diseases?

(I think it is all about medical profiteering. )

[Redneck Socialist]

15. Yup. n/t

[henslee]

16. Started a H5N1 Avian Influenza resource thread in "Health" forum...

There are some excellent sites and links
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=222&topic_id=4931&mesg_id=4933

[alfredo]

17. How much chicken do we consume a year. What if that source of

protein is eliminated from our diets because of the bird flu. Where will people turn, vegetable protein? Most likely they will eat more beef, pork, and fish. Fish is my concern. The oceans are being played out. Will bird flu put more pressure on our oceans and endangered species?