Edwards leads in Time magazine poll of likely Iowa caucus goers

[sabra]

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1657478,00.html

Edwards On Track in Iowa

John Edwards is betting that a strong showing in the Iowa caucuses will catapult him into national contention, and so far his strategy in the state is on track. A new TIME poll of likely Iowa caucus goers, taken a week after Edwards' seven-day, 31-stop bus tour of the state, gives Edwards 29% of the vote, five points ahead of Hillary Clinton and seven ahead of Barack Obama. This latest TIME Poll of 519 likely Iowa Democratic caucus goers finds that, among the so-called "second-tier" candidates, Bill Richardson has 11%, with Joe Biden at 5%, Dennis Kucinich with 2%, and Chris Dodd at 1%. (The Poll was conducted August 22 � 25, 2007. The margin of error is approximately +/- 5 percentage points.)

With the field limited to the top four candidates, Edwards's lead over Clinton widens, to 32% to 24%. Obama was at 22%, with Bill Richardson at 13%. Iowa polls can be unreliable, since only 5% to 10% of voters go to the caucuses; some other recent surveys have Edwards in a dead heat with Clinton and Obama. The race remains wide open, but Edwards's position remains strong.

For Edwards, the poll has some less welcome news as well. So far, at least, his attempts to portray himself as the real change agent in the race — the one who wants to slam the door on lobbyists and other "Washington insiders" — isn't paying off. Obama beats him by 35% to 25% on the question of who "will take on special interests in Washington." (Clinton trailed with 19%.) Iowa Democrats seem to like Edwards more for who he is than for what he says; they call him the "most likable" and the one who best understands their concerns, but his toss-out-the-insiders message hasn't stuck.

[book_worm]

1. It's a real horse race for second in Iowa

And Clinton and Obama aren't really that far off from first either. I think Iowa could go to any of them. My feeling is that if Edwards wins Iowa, the press will say "that was expected", but if Obama (for instance) comes in a strong second and beats Clinton--I think that would be the big story. Like when McCarthy came in a strong second to LBJ in NH in '68 or McGovern to Muskie in '72.

[JDPriestly]

2. Great news although it is too early to put much faith in polls.

This race is about endurance. Edwards has been preparing for this race for the last four years. I think he will endure.