ANALYSIS-U.S. Attack On Iran May "Open Pandora's Box"

[Purveyor]

TEHRAN, Nov 7 (Reuters) - The United States could unleash vastly superior firepower if it attacked Iran but Tehran could strike back against its forces in Iraq and threaten oil supplies crucial to the world economy.

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"It should be a walkover militarily," said London-based defence analyst Andrew Brookes about any U.S. attempt to knock out the Islamic Republic's atomic installations.

"The hard bit is what comes afterwards and that is opening Pandora's box," said Brookes of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think-tank.

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A former Iranian official with links to the country's highest authority, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, suggested Tehran would respond by using allies in the region to take the fight elsewhere in the Middle East.

"If they want to play games with us, I believe in a few ways we can turn Iraq into a fiery battlefield," he said.

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Tim Ripley, a defence analyst who works for Jane's Defence Weekly, said Iran's armed forces had shown resilience during their 1980s war with Iraq and the nightmare scenario for Washington would be launching a war it could then not finish.

The United States had the capability for another "shock and awe" campaign but fighting Iran would not be like the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 and parts of the Iranian military would likely "put up a real good fight," he said.

"If you compare like for like the Iranians may not be as good as the Americans but their leadership ... know how to use what they've got to really great effect," Ripley said.

---EOE---

http://www.reuters.com/article/middleeastCrisis/idUSDAH719869

[razors edge]

1. K&R

In other news: Bear s**ts in woods.

[leveymg]

2. The whole world would be turned into a "fiery battlefield".

For more than a decade, the Pentagon has repeatedly wargamed this scenario. The outcome has been that an attack on Iran immediately becomes a regional war that quickly and and uncontrollably escalates into something even worse.

This is not Iraq. Not even Iraq times ten. An attack on Iran would be the start of a World War.

[Junkdrawer]

3. Hence the big behind-the-scenes battle between AIPAC and Big Oil...

With AIPAC wanting an actual attack and Big Oil wanting to bluff and then sue for peace.

As Iran is seeing through Big Oil's strategy, I'm afraid that AIPAC is gaining the upper hand. :scared:

[Megahurtz]

4. In Other Words

the Iranians aren't going to take shit. :nuke:

[seemslikeadream]

5. If it's a World War there's a bush behind it

[Strelnikov_]

6. Attack is easy. 'Winning' is a whole other matter

Following is just one of many ways they can bring the western economies to their knees (and elevate Putin's Russia).

All data 2005.

- The Persian Gulf represents nearly 50% of the worlds petroleum export market.

- The vast majority of this resource passes through 8 to 10 major facilities (one facility in KSA alone processes 60% of its petroleum, you know, starts with a ‘A’).

- If Iran is attacked in such a way as to threaten the continuity of the regime, they will use their substantial missile inventory in taking out these facilities (I do not believe they will target Israel, as it would have no strategic purpose, and is out of range, whereas targeting the gulf energy infrastructure would strike a mortal blow against the attacking western economies, in particular the US, as I discuss below).

- The US imports ~ 12.4 Mbbl/dy (60% of total consumption) of petroleum which represents around 29% of the worlds petroleum export market.

- The next largest petroleum importers (Japan 5.2, China 3.1, Germany 2.4, South Korea 2.2, France 1.9) all have substantial dollar reserves and are significant exporters of finished goods. Basically, we will be outbid on much of what remains of the worlds petroleum export market post attack, as these countries use their export capacity in finished goods to purchase petroleum from Russia, Nigeria, Norway, and Venezuela.

- In the weeks following destruction of the Persian Gulf oil export market, the US will probably see 2/3rds of its imports sold to higher bidders or embargoed, leaving us with about 60% of the petroleum supply we had pre-attack.

- Approx. 42% of US petroleum is used for personal transport, 22% for commercial transport (trucks that carry food to the stores, etc.). I will leave it to the reader as to the impact a nearly overnight loss of 40% of the US petroleum supply will have to the economy (not to mention the impact due to the collapse of the petrodollar system).

- Russia, India and China will take a pass. Russia stands to make a fortune. And if all the gulf petroleum goes off line, they become the worlds sole energy superpower. China and India will dig in (as they consume much less petroleum), weather the storm, and emerge in a position to snap up all those production contracts that will no longer go to US multinationals for rebuilding the gulf.

- In conclusion, Iran is not toothless. We can physically destroy the country of Iran. There is a good chance they can destroy our economy and begin the process of petrocollapse, ultimately leading to the destruction of a greatly weakened US in a few decades.

So, who wins?

He who can destroy a thing, controls a thing - Muah'dib

++++++++++++++=

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oiltrade.html

All in Mbbl/dy

Top World Oil Net Exporters, 2005

Saudi Arabia 9.1
Russia 6.7
Norway 2.7
Iran 2.6
United Arab Emirates 2.4
Nigeria 2.3
Kuwait 2.3
Venezuela 2.2
Algeria 1.8
Mexico 1.7
Libya 1.5
Iraq 1.3
Angola 1.2
Kazakhstan 1.1
Qatar 1.0

=====

Above represents 39.9 Mbbl/dy of 42 Mbbl/dy world export market
18.7 Mbbl/dy of above in Persian Gulf region

Top World Oil Net Importers, 2005

United States 12.4
Japan 5.2
China 3.1
Germany 2.4
South Korea 2.2
France 1.9
India 1.7
Italy 1.6
Spain 1.6
Taiwan 1.0


Top World Oil Consumers, 2005 (Domestic production in parans.)

United States 20.7 (8.3 - 40%)
China 6.9 (3.8 - 55%)
Japan 5.4 (0.2 - 4%)
Russia 2.8
Germany 2.6
India 2.6
Canada 2.3
Brazil 2.2
Korea, South 2.2
Mexico 2.1
France 2.0
Saudi Arabia 2.0

[milkyway]

11. Great post. The U.S. economy would completely tank if Dick and Junior start

a war with Iran. Oil prices would increase even much faster than they are now. The only people that would benefit are the war profiteers and those that sell oil--Big Oil, the Saudis, etc. (but wait, that's exactly who Dick and Junior work for! We're fucked.)

[Strelnikov_]

7. My life fades, the vision dims . .

My life fades, the vision dims, all that remains are memories. I remember a time of chaos. Ruined dreams, this wasted land. But most of all, I remember the Road Warrior. The man we called Max.

To understand who he was you have to go back to another time. When the world was powered by the black fuel, and the deserts sprouted great cities of pipe and steel.

Gone now, swept away. For reasons long forgotten, two mighty warrior tribes went to war, and touched off a blaze which engulfed them all. Without fuel they were nothing. They had built a house of straw. The thundering machines sputtered, and stopped. Their leaders talked, and talked, and talked. But nothing could stem the avalanche. Their world crumbled. The cities exploded. A whirlwind of looting, a firestorm of fear.

Men began to feed on men. On the roads it was a white line nightmare. Only those mobile enough to scavenge, brutal enough to pillage, would survive. The gangs took over the highways, ready to wage war for a tank of juice.

And in this maelstrom of decay, ordinary men were battered and smashed, men like Max, the warrior Max. In the roar of an engine he lost everything. He became a shell of a man, a burnt-out desolate man. A man haunted by the demons in his past. A man who wandered out into the wasteland. And it was here, in this blighted place, that he learned to live again.

- Opening Dialog, “The Road Warrior”, 1981

[Islander Expat]

8. Americans are pretty cocky about what the military can do....

considering they've lost the last 2 wars.

[milkyway]

9. and Afghanistan isn't looking so great now, either. Bush might be going for

the hat trick if he invades Iran.

[Purveyor]

10. Let alone we are on the verge of economic collapse. eom

[Malikshah]

12. Interesting--but this is the biggest no-brainer. It doesn't take a specialist to

realize the multitude of Pandora's Boxes that'd be opened.

What is sad is that the truth is staring so many people in the face (as it did in 2002) and yet people willfully suspect rational thought and replace it with fear.

I weep for folks.

[focusfan]

13. I think if Bush starts a war with Iran he should be castrated

his nuts nailed to the wall